Mark Robinson: Where does Daniel McStay fit in when it comes to forward status and earning power?

He’s on every Melbourne club’s shopping list. But Daniel McStay has a big decision to make. Does he have the psychological strength to be a big-money recruit?

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA – APRIL 14: Daniel McStay of the Lions celebrates after kicking a goal during the round five AFL match between the Brisbane Lions and the Collingwood Magpies at The Gabba on April 14, 2022 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Daniel McStay is at a career crossroad.

He can take great money and run or take good money and stay.

The third wheel in the Brisbane Lions’ forward line, he is an unrestricted free agent and tall forward, who are rare, and certainly is gettable by rival clubs.

Ask Collingwood, Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, for example, if they’d like McStay inside their 50m arc.

And Port Adelaide, West Coast and Greater Western Sydney.

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The only club in Melbourne not interested in him is Rotary, although McStay is said to be such a good bloke he’d probably do charity work for the organisation if asked.

McStay has one of those footy/life decisions to make.

The numbers offered to him are estimated to be:

Six years at about $600,000 per season to leave and;

Four years at about $500,000 per season to stay.

That’s about $3.6 million versus about $2 million, although after the initial four years at the Lions, you’d think another contract would be put on the table. You’d think, but he’ll be 30 then and who knows how his body will be travelling.

What is Lions forward Daniel McStay worth? Picture: AFL Photos via Getty Images

So, six years has to be tempting.

But is he worth six years at an estimated $600,000 each?

Does he have the psychological strength to be a big-money recruit?

McStay has played 144 games and kicked 119.65, and it must be said he has played several games as a defender.

He is prone to have some influential matches (round 4 against Geelong) and less influential games, like Thursday night.

Opposed to Jeremy Howe mainly and Jordan Roughead, he kicked a goal in the fourth quarter and ended the game with 11 disposals and one contested mark.

Of the five games this season, he’s had two outstanding games (North Melbourne and Geelong) and three so-so games (Port Adelaide, Essendon and Collingwood).

He’s been called a “star” player and of the top 25 players targeted in a one-versus-one, McStay has the sixth-highest win rate behind Tom Hawkins (No. 1), Max King, Tom Lynch, Brody Mihocek and Jack Gunston. It’s a good list to be on.

Daniel McStay marks powerfully against Geelong.

McStay (left) and Nakia Cockatoo celebrate a goal.

The difference between McStay and the other five players is he is the No. 3 or No. 2 forward at the Lions and the other five are mainly the No. 1 key forward and are generally opposed to the opposition’s best defender.

A hugely popular teammate, McStay was taken aback when the Lions recruited Joe Daniher, for he believed he might be out of the team.

The Lions assured him Daniher’s arrival would make him a better player, because at No. 3 he would be a match-up nightmare for the opposition, and that’s proven to be correct.

So much so, the Lions have been told several offers have been put on the table for McStay and as an unrestricted free agent, the Lions would not be able to match an offer for him, meaning he could walk to the club of his choice.

McStay is prime property.

Comparatively, he is the Daniel Bradshaw in Brisbane’s current team in terms of roles played. But he’s hardly Bradshaw’s calibre as a footballer.

Is Dan McStay in a similar position to former Lions forward Daniel Bradshaw?

Bradshaw was the third wheel with Alastair Lynch and Jonathan Brown through the club’s premiership years and beyond, although once Lynch retired after the 2004 grand final, Bradshaw assumed the No. 2 role.

He played 222 games for the Lions and kicked 496 goals.

He had a footy/life moment, too. After being put up for trade by the Lions in their pursuit of Brendan Fevola which played out to be a nightmare trade for the Lions, a disillusioned then 30-year-old Bradshaw requested a trade to Sydney.

He played nine games in the Harbour City and kicked 28 goals.

McStay’s best goals return in a season is also 28 — in 2021.

It has been reported McStay has put off contract talks until the end of the season, but he does have a contract offer from the Lions.

His manager Nick Gieschen has a history of getting great deals for his players switching clubs (Jared Polec to North Melbourne and Dan Hannebery to St Kilda, for example), but clearly not all of those deals have been a success.

If McStay leaves sleepy Brisbane for manic Melbourne and signs for, say, Collingwood, his life will be flipped on its head.

McStay has reportedly put off contract talks with the Lions. Picture: Getty Images

A bad game on Saturday could make a Sunday morning visit to the bakery a little uncomfortable, because with the money comes performance expectation and $600,000 per year will demand a lot of expectation and scrutiny.

Has McStay got the ability and the mentality to leave behind the No. 3 spot and elevate to the No. 2 and maybe No. 1?

Fox Footy’s Brown is wary of declaring McStay a No. 1 forward.

“I thought his game against Geelong was the best game he’s played and if he can string that together consistently, he could be your No. 1 forward,’’ Brown said.

“But to be a No. 1, you have to be able to consistently dominate games, pick your team up and carry them on your back, and we haven’t seen enough evidence of that yet (with McStay).’’

Daniel McStay attempts to mark the ball against Jordan Ridley in round 2.

It’s a given Brown wants McStay to remain in Brisbane.

“The biggest consideration he should have is he’s in a side that’s in a premiership window, and that should be where the priorities are,” Brown said.

“You’ve got be careful to leave for big money, go to one of the up and coming teams or one of the bottom-half teams, because you’re leaving a situation where you could be involved in premiership success over the next few years.’’

Brown said the psychological weight of being the big-name recruit to a Melbourne club can’t be ignored.

“Shit yeah, you’re the main man,’’ Brown said. “He plays a really critical role at Brisbane, it’s underrated from outside, but it’d be a hell of easier when you’ve got two other forwards there, or at least one other gun forward.

“When we had Lynch and Bradshaw, how many 1v1s do you reckon we had?

“It would be shame if he left because he’s been an integral part of the club’s build.’’

Originally published as Mark Robinson: Where does Daniel McStay fit in when it comes to forward status and earning power?