Enter the Carlton Finals Matrix: Numbers game makes it still possible for Carlton to make the top eight

Don’t stop believing, Bluebaggers. Carlton can still play finals in 2020 if they do everything right and get a lot of luck along the way. Get out the calculators, here’s how it can happen. Enter the Carlton Final Matrix.

Fate is out of Patrick Cripps and Carlton’s hands. Picture: Getty Images

Carlton coach David Teague is not willing to concede 2020 – and with good reason.

The calculator needs to be taken out, but the Blues can still break their finals drought in 2020 despite Thursday’s loss to GWS Giants.

“You’d have to look at it mathematically, but it’s not over for us,” Teague said after the loss to GWS.

“We’ve got three more games to get better and we’ll see what happens.”

It won’t be easy, and they’ll need a bit of help along the way, but this how they can do it.

First things first, the Blues must win their last three games.

That’s a non-negotiable.

Their quest starts with a Round 16 meeting with Sydney, where they need to win by 30 points and hope the Giants beat the Crows by 29 points or less.

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Patrick Cripps leads his teammates off Metricon Stadium after the Blues threw away victory against the Giants. Picture: Michael Klein

ROUND 16 SCENARIO – THE KEY GAMES

Geelong d Essendon

West Coast d Western Bulldogs

Fremantle d Melbourne

GWS Giants d Adelaide BY 29 POINTS OR LESS

Carlton d Sydney BY 30 POINTS

In Round 17, the Blues need a timely percentage boost.

They will get their chance when they face bottom-placed Adelaide.

The Blues have been struggling with their scoring power, but they must put the foot down against the Crows and hope the topsy-turvy Demons get over the Giants.

ROUND 17

Port Adelaide d Essendon

Melbourne d GWS Giants BY 10 POINTS

Carlton d Adelaide BY 40 POINTS

Hawthorn d Western Bulldogs

Under our scenario, it all comes down to the final round.

The Blues will face their toughest test up against the fancied Brisbane Lions in what will take a herculean effort

If they do it, and if other results fall into place, they’ll scrape into eighth.

ROUND 18

Carlton d Brisbane

Essendon d Melbourne

St Kilda d GWS Giants BY AT LEAST 7 POINTS

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HOW THE LADDER WILL LOOK UNDER THIS SCENARIO

1. Port Adelaide

2. West Coast

3. Richmond

4. Geelong

5. Brisbane Lions

6. St Kilda

7. Collingwood

8. Carlton

It would mean the Blues face the Lions for a second consecutive time, this time in a cutthroat elimination final.

It would be their first finals appearance since 2013.

St Kilda would meet Collingwood in the other elimination final.

In the two qualifying finals, Port Adelaide and Geelong would face off along with West Coast up against Richmond.

Do you believe, Bluebaggers?

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THE RUN HOME

1. PORT ADELAIDE

Played 14, 44 pts, 128.4 per cent

TO COME

R16: North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, Sat Sep 5 (W)

R17: Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Sat Sep 12 (W)

R18: Collingwood, TBC (W)

WE SAY: They’ve had a “bye” but it’s still only a seven-day break heading into Saturday’s clash with strugglers North Melbourne due to the condensed fixture. Since a Round 11 win over Richmond, which made for nine wins from their first 11 matches, Port has not been in quite as red-hot form. It only just got over Hawthorn in Round 13 and gave Sydney a sniff in the last quarter in Round 14. However, wins are wins and if the ladder-leader is a true contender this season it should have no problem winning its last three games and claiming the minor premiership.

PREDICTED FINISH: 1st

2. BRISBANE LIONS

Played 14, 44 pts, 117.7 per cent

TO COME

R16: Gold Coast, Gabba (W)

R17: Sydney, Cairns (W)

R18: Carlton, TBC (W)

WE SAY: The Lions have gone 7-0 at their home ground this year. You would have to think Brisbane wins its final block of games to lock in a top-two finish and home qualifying final at the Gabba. Having the extra game up their sleeve on Geelong means a top-two finish is entirely in Brisbane’s hands. Harris Andrews’ hamstring injury is a concern.

PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd

3. RICHMOND

Played 15, 42 pts, 123.6 per cent

TO COME

R16: Bye

R17: Geelong, Metricon Stadium, Fri Sep 11 (L)

R18: Adelaide, TBC (W)

WE SAY: The key game as far as top-four prospects go will be against Geelong. Win that game — and the last one — and the Tigers can’t miss top-four. Lose to the Cats and Richmond might have to rely on one of Brisbane or West Coast losing at least two of their last four matches — which would seem unlikely. We’re tipping Geelong in Round 17, which means the Tigers miss the top-four. But anything’s possible for Damien Hardwick’s side, which has a knack of hitting its straps at the right time of year.

PREDICTED FINISH: 5th

The Cats remain in contention for a top-two finish. Picture: Getty Images

4. GEELONG

Played 14, 40 pts, 138.7 per cent

TO COME

R16: Essendon, Gabba, Sun Sep 6 (W)

R17: Richmond, Metricon Stadium, Fri Sep 11 (W)

R18: Sydney, TBC (W)

WE SAY: The Cats were woeful in the first quarter against the Western Bulldogs in Round 14, but fought back to win in a performance that showed they have gears and no shortage of self-belief to get the job done no matter the situation. They hold the best percentage in the competition and are arguably the No.1 seed right now. But the next two games will be interesting. Under coach Chris Scott, Geelong has a 1-12 record coming off mid-season and pre-finals byes. It had the bye entering Sunday’s clash with Essendon. The Cats then have only a five-day break before meeting a Richmond side they lost to in last year’s preliminary final. The Tigers will enter that game fresh off a bye themselves, and potentially with a couple of injured stars back in the line-up. To finish top-two, the Cats might have to win all three games and rely on Brisbane losing at least one of its matches. Top-four hopes could hang on the result of the Round 17 clash with Richmond.

PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd

5. WEST COAST

Played 14, 40 pts, 116.3 per cent

TO COME

R16: Western Bulldogs, Metricon Stadium, Sun Sep 6 (W)

R17: St Kilda, Gabba, Thurs Sep 10 (W)

R18: North Melbourne, TBC (W)

WE SAY: West Coast has won nine of its past 10 games, but its record in Queensland is now 3-4 and it has faces at least its next three games in the sunshine state. The Eagles tackled the Tigers off a four-day break and now have consecutive five-day breaks followed by another four-day break leading into the Round 17 clash with St Kilda. It’s a mighty tough schedule, but one the Eagles need to make the most of. They look like needing at least three more wins to finish top-four.

PREDICTED FINISH: 4th

One more win should be enough for Collingwood to lock in a finals spot. Picture: Michael Klein

6. COLLINGWOOD

Played 15, 34 pts, 110.1 per cent

TO COME

R16: Bye

R17: Gold Coast, Gabba (W)

R18: Port Adelaide (L)

WE SAY: Needs one more victory to seal its spot in the finals. It should get that against Gold Coast. Things are not clicking just yet, but the Magpies have shown they can step up a gear come the pointy end. Scoring needs to improve considerably. Forward Jordan De Goey and defender Jeremy Howe could be fit to return for finals. Get things right and get some stars back and who knows what could happen.

PREDICTED FINISH: 8th

7. ST KILDA

Played 14, 32 pts, 113.3 per cent

TO COME

R16: Hawthorn, Metricon Stadium, Sun Sep 6 (W)

R17: West Coast, Gabba, Thurs Sep 10 (L)

R18: GWS, TBC (L)

WE SAY: The Saints have let two great opportunities slip in as many games, with narrow losses to Brisbane in Round 13 (two points) and Melbourne in Round 14 (three points). The loss to the Demons made for three losses from St Kilda’s past four games and leaves the club in a vulnerable position. Brett Ratten’s side needs at least one more win — but more likely two — to play finals, but faces a tough run home. You’d expect St Kilda to take care of Hawthorn in Round 16, but then they might still need to beat one of West Coast or Greater Western Sydney in the final two rounds. As it stands, I can’t see the Saints winning either of those two games and therefore have them finishing ninth.

PREDICTED FINISH: 9th

8. GWS GIANTS

Played 14, 32 pts, 102.8 per cent

TO COME

R16: Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, Tues Sep 8 (W)

R17: Melbourne, Gabba, Sat Sep 12 (W)

R18: St Kilda, TBC (W)

WE SAY: The Giants are back and shape as a dangerous team if they can continue to gather momentum heading into finals. Their ball movement was significantly better against Fremantle in Round 14 and they have found a damaging new forward in Jake Riccardi, who has remarkably booted eight goals from his first three AFL games. GWS should have no trouble winning at least two of its next three games and now look certain to play finals. The clash against Melbourne in Round 17 looks like being huge. On current form and capabilities, you have to think the Giants win all their remaining games, which could see them finish as high as sixth.

PREDICTED FINISH: 6th

9. MELBOURNE

Played 14, 28 points, 108.2 per cent

TO COME

R16: Fremantle, Cairns, Mon, Sep 7 (W)

R17: GWS, Gabba, Sat Sep 12 (L)

R18: Essendon, TBC (W)

WE SAY: It must be frustrating being a Melbourne supporter. This sure has been one rollercoaster year. One week, the Demons look destined to miss finals and record another wasted year. The next week, they look certain to make the top-eight and show potential to do some damage come finals. It’s awful loss to Sydney on Thursday night really hurt, and beating Fremantle next up is no certainty at all. The following clash with Greater Western Sydney in Round 17 could be huge if the Giants also win their next two games as expected. Lose that and it might come down to beating Essendon in the final round for the Demons to qualify — which I have Melbourne winning at this stage.

PREDICTED FINISH: 7th

The Demons’ loss to Sydney could prove costly. Picture: Getty Images

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Played 14, 28 points, 100.1 per cent

TO COME

R16: West Coast, Metricon Stadium, Sun Sep 6 (L)

R17: Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, Sun Sep 13 (W)

R18: Fremantle, TBC (W)

WE SAY: The Bulldogs looked a million bucks in the first half against Geelong in Round 14, but were quickly put back in their place on their way to an 11-point defeat. Finals certainly aren’t out of the question if Luke Beveridge’s side can put more of its best football out on the park, but given their percentage is not great the Bulldogs look like having to win all of their remaining games to qualify. They should get the points against Hawthorn and Fremantle, but West Coast this Sunday looms as a tough ask. The fact the Bulldogs are 1-6 against the other current top-eight teams this season doesn’t fill you with confidence they can upset the fifth-placed Eagles.

PREDICTED FINISH: 10th

11. ESSENDON

Played 14, 26 points, 88 per cent

TO COME

R16: Geelong, Gabba, Sun Sep 6 (L)

R17: Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, Sat Sep 12 (L)

R18: Melbourne, TBC (L)

WE SAY: The Bombers are cooked. Just had to beat West Coast this week but couldn’t manage it, which means you can put a line through them for 2020. Essendon looked a different side the previous game with Joe Daniher back in the forward line and firing against Hawthorn. But that game was also a tale of two halves, with the Hawks carving the Bombers up in the first half before the tables turned. It’s hard to trust Essendon because of those inconsistencies in their game. Two top-five sides still await, as well as an improved Melbourne side fighting for its spot in the top-eight. It wouldn’t surprise if Essendon pinched a win or two, but it’s hard to tip any at this stage — especially considering their crammed schedule which brings three games in 12 days.

PREDICTED FINISH: 12th

12. CARLTON

Played 14, 24 points, 96.2 per cent

TO COME

R16: Sydney, Metricon Stadium, Tues Sep 8 (W)

R17: Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, Sun Sep 13 (W)

R18: Brisbane, TBC (L)

WE SAY: It’s going to take something special. A Round 14 loss to Collingwood looked to all but end Carlton’s finals aspiration, leaving them needing to win their last four games to make the top-eight given they can’t rely on a poor percentage. The Thursday night loss to the Giants was another nail in the coffin. You’d give the Blues wins over Sydney and Adelaide, which would take them to eight victories for the season. That would make for the club’s best campaign since 2013 — something for coach David Teague and his team to hang their hat on. As for finals, there’s a mathematical chance, but they’re up against it.

PREDICTED FINISH: 11th

Originally published as Enter the Carlton Finals Matrix: Numbers game makes it still possible for Carlton to make the top eight