AFL list analysis: Gary Buckenara analyses Essendon’s list
When will the Bombers return to finals? So much of it depends on their B and C grade talent. Who from this group can take the next step? See our full analysis.
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What a messy end to the season it was for Essendon.
Coach gone. A failed bid to lure Clarko and the CEO out the door as well.
But as much as the Bombers are a rabble off the field at the moment, the club’s list is in better shape.
In fact, if the Bombers can sort out their off-field issues and find the right coach they can easily be a top-eight side next year, if not top four.
The new coach has got a real opportunity. It would be a good job to get.
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The Bombers’ list has talent and is well-balanced overall and that is clear with 24 A, B and rising star-ranked players. If anything, the club’s top-end talent could be a bit thin.
After sneaking into the finals in 2021, the Bombers should have been a top-eight team again this year, but the early part of the season really cost them.
The group had some disappointing losses this season, but some patience is required with developing players.
Overall, the list quality is there. With the developing players coming through, I see a lot to get excited about.
I expect there will be a few more A-graders added to the list in the near future such as Nik Cox, Harrison Jones, Nick Bryan and Nic Martin.
This season would have been a good learning year for the Bombers’ young players about how hard it is to back up a good year with another one – and just how brutal the business can be after their coach Ben Rutten was sacked.
In my mind Ross Lyon would have been the perfect man for the vacant job because the Bombers need a harder edge – and Ross would demand that. But he has told the club he’s happy working in the media.
Whoever gets the job needs to bring that edge in terms of the way he would want them to play and he would fix up the defensive side of their game where they were getting slaughtered.
Off-field, the only survivors are football manager Josh Mahoney and list boss Adrian Dodoro.
Dodoro has been at the Bombers for much of the club’s past 20 years without a flag, but he has done a good job in the past couple of years.
The issue with Dodoro is that rival clubs are often hesitant to do deals with him as he has a reputation of playing hard ball and holding up deals, wanting too much for his players and often offering way undoers for other club’s players.
Could it be time for a fresh set of eyes in this department as well?
While the Bombers search for new off-field leadership, there could be a change on-field as well as captain Dyson Heppell’s future remains unclear as he is courted by Gold Coast.
Even if Heppell was to stay, it could be time for a younger player to step up into the role with Zach Merrett or Andy McGrath the obvious candidates.
McGrath I have as an A-grader because he’s very dangerous off halfback. He burst onto the scene winning the rising star and I think he’s been consistent despite the team’s on-field issues.
He can be the great metres-gain player and the best is still in front of him.
HOW THE RATINGS WORK
At a club level, player ranking is generally based on gradings of A+, A, B+, B, C+, C and the developing players.
My rankings will focus on A, B, C and for the developing 20-year-old and under players will be rated as rising stars (RS) and those that need more time (NMT).
With the younger players, it is important to consider who is coming through and those who need longer to develop.
The most important areas for clubs to look at is how many A and B ranked players they have as well as the rising stars, who I believe should be A and B-grade players in the future.
RATING THE LIST
A
Darcy Parish, 24, 180cm, 82kg
Zach Merrett, 26, 179cm, 85kg
Jake Stringer, 28, 192cm, 91kg
Andrew McGrath, 24, 180cm, 83kg
B
Sam Draper, 23, 205cm, 105kg
Kyle Langford, 25, 192cm, 88kg
Dylan Shiel, 29, 182cm, 84kg
Jordan Ridley, 23, 195cm, 93kg
Jayden Laverde, 26, 193cm, 91kg
Nick Hind, 27, 180cm, 76kg
Peter Wright, 25, 203cm, 102kg
Dyson Heppell, 30, 189cm, 87kg
Harrison Jones, 21, 196cm, 88kg
Mason Redman, 24, 187cm, 86kg
Jake Kelly, 27, 190cm, 91kg
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, 23, 195cm, 89kg
Matt Guelfi, 24, 184cm, 84kg
Nic Martin, 21, 192cm, 82kg
C
Jye Caldwell, 21, 183cm, 83kg
Aaron Francis, 24, 193cm, 92kg
Will Snelling, 24, 175cm, 79kg
James Stewart, 28, 199cm, 99kg
Brayden Ham, 23, 182cm, 79kg
Andrew Phillips, 30, 201cm, 101kg
Cian McBride R, 21, 197cm, 90kg
Alec Waterman R, 25, 182cm, 89kg
Developing (20 years and under)
Rising stars
Ben Hobbs, 18, 183cm, 79kg
Nik Cox, 20, 200cm, 94kg
Archie Perkins, 20, 188cm, 80kg
Nick Bryan, 20, 203cm, 101kg
Tex Wanganeen, 18, 179cm, 78kg
Massimo D’Ambrosio R, 19, 178cm, 80kg
Needs more time
Sam Durham, 20, 185cm, 84kg
Kaine Baldwin, 20, 193cm, 95kg
Alastair Lord, 18, 181cm, 75kg
Zach Reid, 20, 202cm, 90kg
Josh Eyre, 19, 198cm, 93kg
Cody Brand, 20, 195cm, 92kg
Patrick Voss R, 18, 194cm, 93kg
Jye Menzie R, 19, 180cm, 81kg
Retired: Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Michael Hurley, Devon Smith
Delisted: Tom Cutler, Garrett McDonagh, Tom Hird
LIST BREAKDOWN
A-Grade: 4
B-Grade: 14
C-Grade: 8
Developing (20 years and under)
Rising Stars: 6
Need more time: 8
LIST NEEDS
Essendon’s list is well balanced, but there are some areas across the ground they could address through free agency and trade. The Bombers’ top-end talent could do with a boost.
They traded for Jye Caldwell and he’s still in the C-grade level. He’s still young and it seems like he has struggled finding the ball at AFL level. He still has talent, it hasn’t disappeared but he just needs more certainty at senior level. Give him one more year and see what happens.
While they could also be in the market for a key defender and a really clever small forward. But one of their biggest problems has been a lack of grunt at stoppages. The bigger-bodied midfielders, like a Patrick Cripps type. They don’t come around all the time, but that’s the sort of body shape that can muscle around and win stoppages and they just don’t seem to have that. With rival clubs circling, retaining young ruck prospect Nick Bryan to help Sam Draper should also be a priority for the club. Given this year’s draft looks strong, the Bombers need to balance any potential trade targets up against the young players they could bring in with those traits via the draft. They still desperately need to bolster its key position stocks the front end of the ground. Overall, the Bombers’ list is in a strong position to build on but they have some work to do.
TRADE TARGETS
The Bombers made a play at unsigned Western Bulldogs midfielder Josh Dunkley last time, so why not have another swing again? Dunkley would immediately add to the Bombers’ top-end talent and, at the age of 25, would be arriving at the club as he enters his prime. He is that grunt player they need. He is not the outside, slick ball user, but he is a stoppage player and he does it really well at the Bulldogs. Fremantle backman Griffin Logue could fill a defensive need and, at 24, also has plenty of upside to his game, so why not put something on the table for him? There is noise about Junior Rioli’s future at West Coast and there could be a link there for the livewire forward with Michael Long. Rioli is looming like he’ll join Port Adelaide so the Dons need to get ambitious given they’ve been eager to add a small forward -Izak Rankine and Bobby Hill in recent years. Could they look at a more value play in Demons’ small forward Toby Bedford or Geelong’s Quinton Narkle? It wouldn’t cost the Bombers much but would address a key need. But the Bombers might want to make sure they have enough salary cap space to make a play at Gold Coast forward Ben King and Carlton’s Harry McKay when they come out of contract next year. I would sell it to King on the basis that St Kilda – where brother Max is – probably haven’t got the list that is going to win a premiership any time soon and they might have to go back to the drawing board whereas the Bombers are on the rise. While they should entice McKay by ensuring he’d be well renumerated compared to what he’d get at the Blues.
TRADE BAIT
Midfielder Dylan Shiel could be one candidate for a spot on the trade table if the Bombers could find a club willing to part ways with a top-30 pick. In the middle of a six-year deal, the former Giant has not delivered what they thought he would be in terms of that grunt player that could win the ball and get it out. He has only done that outside stuff and very little of the inside grunt work. I just don’t think he had measured up to what they wanted. But they could probably get a second-round pick for him or use him in a trade to get another player from a rival club that suits their needs. Heppell is weighing up a move to the Gold Coast, but that is unlikely to reap the Bombers much in terms of compensation. It might be a later second, or even a third-round pick because of his age demographic. But if the compensatory pick was at the start of the second, or even the start of the third, the Bombers are still going to get a good young player in this draft. That’s what I think they should look at doing.
CRYSTAL BALL
With the right appointments off the field, it should not take Essendon long to turn around what ended as a forgettable 2022 season. Their list is well-balanced with the right blend of developing players, depth players (C-grade) and a good spread of A and B-graders – even if their top-end talent could do with a bit of a boost. There is no denying the Bombers’ 2022 campaign was a disappointment, particularly early on in the year.
Given the expectations for 2022, I can understand the level of impatience among the club‘s supporters and football experts over the Bombers’ progress – or lack thereof. But this can sometimes happen with a younger group of developing players just struggling with more opposition attention and they should be better off for that experience.
The new coach has to pick up this group and get them playing committed team football with a far harder edge to them than what they showed this year.
The Bombers should be top-eight contenders – if not more – over the next few years, which has the potential to be an exciting new chapter for the club.
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Originally published as AFL list analysis: Gary Buckenara analyses Essendon’s list
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