AFL 2023: Predicted results for the first six rounds
Which coaches who will be under pressure early in the season? We have ran through every game in the first six rounds to find out.
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Before the Magpie Army jumps all over me, I’ll fess up.
Yes, this time last year I tipped Collingwood to start last season 0-6.
I was wrong.
The Magpies won only two of their final nine games in 2021 but went 4-2 to start 2022 with a new game plan under new coach Craig McRae.
They went on to make a preliminary final in what was an exciting ride.
It is always hard to judge teams with new coaches – especially before pre-season matches begin.
Essendon, North Melbourne, Greater Western Sydney and St Kilda could all similarly spike with new leaders at the helm this year.
But we can only go on what we’ve seen and heard so far in forecasting the results for the first six rounds of this season.
So, here goes.
Are you more or less optimistic about your side? Scroll down to see the predicted ladder and have your say in the comments below.
After eight wins last season, the young Crows simply must show further progression this year. But many of their first six opponents this year had their measure last year, which is why it’s hard to pencil in too many early wins. Adelaide lost to GWS by 59 points in Round 7 last season, got smacked by Port Adelaide by 56 points in Round 23 and fell to Hawthorn by 32 points in Round 17. Four consecutive games at Adelaide Oval will help Matthew Nicks’ side, given it went 5-7 at the venue last season and only 3-7 on the road. One of those home wins came against Carlton by 29 points in Round 20, which will give the side some confidence when they meet again during Gather Round. It wouldn’t shock if Adelaide started 4-2 rather than 2-4. But the Crows will need to lift their scoring and tighten their defence, given they ranked 14th for both points for and points against last year.
The Lions fell flat against eventual premier Geelong in the preliminary final last year, but still produced an impressive season and have only strengthened their list over summer. In come Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston, Conor McKenna, Darragh Joyce and Will Ashcroft, who can all have an immediate impact in 2023. The club’s only loss from its preliminary final side has been key forward Dan McStay, who kicked 25 goals from 22 games last season. In the first six weeks, Brisbane has only two games at home — where it went 10-2 last season. However, games on the road against bottom-four sides from last year in North Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney should be a walk in the park, while the Lions will also be favoured to beat Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs. After making an 8-1 start to last season, the side could be quick out of the blocks once again.
The Blues started last season 8-2 but look like being up against it to equal or better that result. Carlton won’t be favoured to beat Richmond or Geelong in the first two rounds, especially given a few injury issues. Star midfielder Sam Walsh will miss the start of the season as he continues to recover from his back injury, while some other important players have had limited pre-season preparation. If they want to play finals, the Blues should be beating GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide and St Kilda. However, it’s worth noting that they lost to the Crows by 29 points at Adelaide Oval in Round 20 last year. It might take something special to turn that result around eight games later.
It shapes as a fairly brutal opening month for the Magpies, who are scheduled to play three fellow finalists from 2022 starting with the reigning premier. Collingwood has lost its past four games against both Geelong and Brisbane. It also fell to Richmond by 27 points in Round 8 last year. Craig McRae’s side should be able to take care of St Kilda, but arch rival Essendon didn’t prove an easy side to overcome for Collingwood last year. The Magpies played the Bombers twice in 2022 for two wins, but those victories came by a combined 15 points. Overall, Collingwood won 11 games by 11 points or less last season. The margin for error is low in such close games, but the belief within this group is extraordinary. The off-season additions of Dan McStay, Tom Mitchell and Bobby Hill should only make Collingwood stronger, too.
It’s a dream start for new coach Brad Scott, with the Bombers slated to play no 2022 finalists in the opening four weeks of the season. All of their games in the opening month are also in Melbourne, which is another bonus. The Bombers convincingly won matches against Hawthorn (27 points), Gold Coast (48 points) and St Kilda (35 points) last year, while they should also be too good for a new look GWS at Marvel Stadium. After starting last year 2-10 and never really recovering, early wins would do wonders for the confidence and the belief of this Essendon group and help set the foundations for a more positive home-and-away campaign under Scott. It gets tougher after the first four weeks, though, with Essendon set to be seriously tested against Melbourne and Collingwood. The Bombers haven’t beaten the Demons since 2019.
What to make of the Dockers? They featured in a semi-final last year after returning to September for the first time since 2015. But they have since lost their leading goalkicker in Rory Lobb, along with wingman Blake Acres, defender Griffin Logue and veteran midfielder David Mundy. New recruits Luke Jackson and Jaeger O’Meara have helped soften the blow, but Fremantle’s list still appears worse off in the short-term. That said, the Dockers would have been left thrilled with their fixture for the first six weeks, which features only one fellow finalist from 2022. That side is the Western Bulldogs, who Fremantle downed by 13 points in an elimination final in Perth last year. Away games against Adelaide and Gold Coast are also winnable. The Dockers started last season 7-1 and could make a similarly fast start this season if things come together.
When will the winning streak end? Not in the first six rounds, I’m tipping. The reigning premiers won their final 16 games in 2022 and look on track to beat their own record of 23 consecutive AFL/VFL wins — which was set by Geelong in 1952-53. The Cats have won their past four games against Collingwood, five of their past six games against Carlton and their past six games against Gold Coast. Hawthorn is always a difficult assignment regardless of ladder positions, but West Coast should not prove a problem and the Cats smacked Sydney by 81 points in the Grand Final last year. Essendon and Adelaide await in Rounds 7 and 8 if the hunt for the record is still alive.
The Suns will be shooting for an inaugural appearance in September this year, but they might have to make up ground after a difficult start to their campaign. Stuart Dew’s side faces each of the two 2022 Grand Finalists in the first three weeks, along with an Essendon side which the Suns lost to by 48 points in Round 18 last year. If you give Gold Coast one win from its two away matches against St Kilda and Fremantle — plus a victory at home against last year’s wooden spoon winner North Melbourne — that is just two wins from their first six games. As the Suns experienced last year, it is a long way back from a 2-4 start as far as finals are concerned.
As far as six week blocks of games go, this is one of the softer ones for new GWS coach Adam Kingsley. The Giants don’t play any 2022 finalists in the first five weeks, before a clash with preliminary finalist Brisbane in Round 6. GWS would be favoured to take down Adelaide at home in Round 1, especially given it belted the Crows by 59 points in Round 7 last season and went 4-2 at Giants Stadium last year. A win over West Coast is also a strong possibility, but at this stage you couldn’t back in the Giants to beat Carlton, Essendon (away) or Hawthorn. Interestingly, GWS has lost its past seven games at Manuka Oval, which only makes the task against the Lions look trickier.
The Hawks started last season 3-3 and despite being the youngest side entering 2023, I’m tipping them to do the same again. Sam Mitchell’s side faces only two finalists from last year in the opening six rounds — Sydney and Geelong — which is handy given only two of their eight wins last season came against sides who featured in September. Former Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson could have something up his sleeve in his new role as North Melbourne’s leader in Round 3, but you would expect Hawthorn to win that along with games against GWS and Adelaide. It looks like being another development year for Mitchell’s side, but a few more wins along the way are always a bonus.
The Demons are my tip for the 2023 premiership and I’m tipping them to get the ball rolling with another hot start to the season. Simon Goodwin’s side won its first 10 games of 2022 by an average of 36 points, before getting some mid-season wobbles and dropping out of the flag race with a semi-final defeat at the hands of Brisbane. While it lost that final to the Lions by 13 points, Melbourne did beat Brisbane twice during the regular season to the tune of 64 and 58 points. The Demons have also won their last two Anzac Eve clashes against Richmond and should not be too troubled by games against West Coast and Essendon. If Melbourne can stay fit this season and improve its front-half game a little, look out.
He is widely regarded as the ‘Master Coach’, having led Hawthorn to four premierships after inheriting a club on its knees. So what can Alastair Clarkson do for the Kangaroos this season? Standards appear to have already been raised, but this is a side coming from a very low base after winning just two games to collect the wooden spoon last season. Those triumphs came against West Coast and Richmond, while the Roos lost their other 20 games by an average of 54 points. Given it’s at home, North Melbourne has to be a fair chance to topple the Eagles in Round 1. After that, it’s hard to pencil in any more wins, especially given the Kangaroos copped heavy losses against Fremantle (78 points), Hawthorn (20 and 46 points), Carlton (50 points), Brisbane (108 points) and Gold Coast (62 and 67 points) last year. But with Clarko in charge, who knows?
Out of contract at the end of the season, Power coach Ken Hinkley needs early wins to take some pressure off. But it’s not an easy start to the season for Port Adelaide, which faces three of the final four teams from last year in the first four rounds. Even at home, the Power will be underdogs against Brisbane in Round 1, while away matches against Collingwood and Sydney also look tough asks. Port has won five of the past six Showdowns against Adelaide, most recently crushing the Crows by 56 points in Round 23 last season. If they start 1-3, the pressure will firmly be on against the Bulldogs in Round 5. It is hard work coming back from 1-4. However, Hinkley’s side went 7-5 at Adelaide Oval last year, including a 17-point win over the Bulldogs in Round 8.
The Tigers recovered from a 2-4 start to play finals last year, but wouldn’t want to repeat that again after bolstering their list over the off-season with a pair of midfield guns in Jacob Hopper and Tim Tarranto. They lost to the Blues in the opening round last year after being smashed out of the middle, but the new recruits should help avoid such a discrepancy this time around. Richmond has still won 12 of its past 13 matches against Carlton and scored comfortable wins over Adelaide (19 points), Collingwood (27 points) and the Western Bulldogs (38 points) last year. Fellow 2022 finalists Sydney and Melbourne will present big challenges, though. The Tigers have lost their past two Anzac Eve clashes against the Demons.
On the surface, it doesn’t look too bad a first six weeks for new coach Ross Lyon. But when you consider that the side’s leading goalkicker from last year — Max King — will miss the start of the season with a shoulder and their second-leading goalkicker Tim Membrey might be underdone after minor knee surgery recently, the Saints will be up against it. St Kilda ranked 15th for points for last season – and that was including 52 goals from King and 34 majors for Membrey. This is also a team that made a 3-8 finish to last season. Yes, a new coach could deliver a performance spike. And as Lyon says, injuries create opportunities for others. But I’m not buying stocks in the Saints before some more performance data hits the market.
Recent history shows that teams which get thumped in a Grand Final often drop off the next year. Think Greater Western Sydney in 2020 and Adelaide in 2018. But these Swans won’t be falling off a cliff this year, despite copping an 81-point belting at the hands of Geelong in last year’s decider. A remarkably consistent performer, Sydney has featured in finals in 11 of the past 13 seasons and given the young talent coming still through you can bet they’ll be up there again in 2023. Away games against Geelong and Melbourne will be a challenge, but the Swans should get to 5-1 if they can win one of those.
The Eagles had a season from hell in 2023. Injury and Covid-19 issues meant they used a whopping 47 players throughout the season. They won just two games — against Collingwood and Essendon — and just 22 quarters of football for the year. While this year simply could not be as bad, you can’t count on the Eagles dramatically bouncing back. They have issues across the field and their leading goalkicker from last year — Josh Kennedy — has hung up the boots. Many of West Coast’s stars are ageing and injury prone, so this year is likely going to be about developing the next generation. The first two games winnable, but if they lose both of those they will be on track for a winless first six weeks.
This prediction on the Bulldogs could come back to bite. But with four opponents who finished above them on the ladder last year in the first six weeks, early wins will be tough to find. Luke Beveridge’s side went 1-1 against Melbourne last year and suffered sizeable losses against Brisbane (41 points) and Richmond (38 points). They also fell to Fremantle by 13 points in an elimination final last September. How the list changes affect the side remains to be seen. The additions of bookends Liam Jones and Rory Lobb should help. But the side has also lost its best-and-fairest winner from last season in Josh Dunkley.
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Originally published as AFL 2023: Predicted results for the first six rounds
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