AFL 2018 season has been a fizzer with predictable results

THE AFL is exploring some radical rule changes for next season with good reason with the 2018 season is on track to fizzle out into one of the most predictable years of the modern era.

St Kilda’s win over Gold Coast was just the sixth time this season a team has come from behind at three-quarter time to win. Picture: Getty Images

THE 2018 season is on track to fizzle out into one of the most predictable years of the modern era.

After Round 13 there have been just 29 upset results, equating to 26 per cent of matches.

Last season there were upsets in 34 per cent of matches.

Since 1996, the only seasons with fewer predictable outcomes were affected by the introduction of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.

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From 2011-2013 the number of upsets hovered around 21-25 per cent as the Suns and Giants were routinely smashed as they fielded inexperienced line-ups.

This year has also been marred by both a plummet in goals and a lack of close games.

St Kilda’s barnstorming finish against Gold Coast on Saturday was just the sixth game a team has won after trailing at the final break this season.

The Saints’ comeback was the first time a team trailing at three-quarter time had won since Sydney youngster Ben Ronke (seven goals) inspired his team against Hawthorn in Round 8.

There were 15 final-quarter comebacks recorded in the first seven rounds last year.

Hawthorn has played in three upset results, but beating Adelaide last weekend wasn’t one of them. Picture: Getty Images

The dip in quality has seen the AFL explore some radical rule changes for next season.

According to the TAB, Essendon and Hawthorn have each played in six upset results — the most of any club.

The Bombers have won three out of seven games they started as the underdog while the Hawks have won three out of five.

North Melbourne has started as the outsider eight times this season, winning half of those matches.

Richmond’s season has gone to script with the reigning premier yet to be involved in a shock result.

St Kilda has been involved in just one upset — its shock loss to the Kangas on Good Friday.

The Saints, Tigers and Demons are the only three clubs yet to win a game as the outsider.

“Upsets were lower in 1996 due to Fitzroy’s last season, which saw them win only one match,” TAB’s Nick Quinn said.
“So if you were to put that to the side, you could argue that this is the most predictable season since TAB started betting on footy in 1995.”

Year	Matches	Upsets
1995	185	55 (30%)
1996	185	43 (23%)
1997	185	73 (39%)
1998	185	66 (36%)
1999	185	65 (35%)
2000	185	57 (31%)
2001	185	58 (31%)
2002	185	56 (30%)
2003	185	57 (31%)
2004	185	58 (31%)
2005	185	63 (34%)
2006	185	62 (34%)
2007	185	60 (32%)
2008	185	54 (29%)
2009	185	54 (29%)
2010	186	65 (35%)
2011	196	42 (21%)
2012	207	48 (23%)
2013	207	51 (25%)
2014	207	60 (29%)
2015	207	57 (28%)
2016	207	59 (29%)
2017	207	71 (34%)
2018	111	29 (26%)
Overall	1363	4504 (30%)

SOURCE: TAB

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Originally published as AFL 2018 season has been a fizzer with predictable results