Run Home: What every club must do to make the finals

The Bombers are two games in the eight but a far from safe with a tough run home and Port Adelaide, Fremantle and the Bulldogs charging. See your club’s best and worst-case finish.

Essendon’s Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti celebrates a goal. Pic: Michael Klein

Sorry Carlton fans, the finals dream is over. For this year at least.

It was fun while it lasted, but even the mathematicians threw their calculators in the bin after the Blues succumbed to West Coast yesterday.

Even if they win their three remaining games, the Blues can only get to 36 points, four behind eighth-placed Adelaide.

But that doesn’t mean the top eight is set in stone. Far from it.

In fact, there are realistic scenarios that would allow teams down to 11th on the ladder claim a finals spot, and slightly less realistic — but not impossible — ones that could get Hawthorn, North Melbourne or 14th-placed St Kilda in.

Of course, as we like to say at this time of year, everything would have to go right from here. But what does that mean exactly? Scroll down for detailed scenarios of what has to happen for your club to make it.

THE TACKLE: ROBBO’S R20 LIKES AND DISLIKES

BAROMETER: EVERY CLUB’S INJURY LIST

SUPER LADDER: EVERY TEAM’S FORM RATED

Note: The top six clubs are safe. If you barrack for Geelong, West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, GWS or Collingwood keep weekends in September free (although where those finals will be played is still very much up in the air. Richmond, for example, could finish anywhere from first to sixth)

7. ESSENDON — 44, 100.1%

Rd 21 Western Bulldogs (Marvel)

Rd 22 Fremantle (PS)

Rd 23 Collingwood (MCG)

Don’t panic, Bomber fans, but Essendon could still miss the finals. They could also finish fourth if they win all three of their remaining matches, Richmond loses its last three games and GWS and Collingwood drop two of their last three (unlikely but playing the Pies in Round 23 helps). Worst-case scenario for the Bombers is losing two (or three) of their last three which would allow Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs or even Fremantle to jump them if they go on a winning run. They play two of those teams so their destiny is in their own hands.

Essendon needs a big three weeks from Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. Picture: Michael Klein.

8. ADELAIDE — 40, 108.7%

Rd 21 West Coast (PS)

Rd 22 Collingwood (AO)

Rd 23 Western Bulldogs (Ballarat)

The Crows desperately needed to win on Saturday night, and they did, keeping them a game clear in eighth. But they are three very tough fixtures, starting in Perth on Sunday. Port is their biggest danger, with a close enough percentage and an easier fixture. But if they lose their next two all bets are off with Freo and the Dogs looming — Round 23 could be an elimination final. On the positive side the equation is simple. Win at least two of their three remaining games and they should be safe. The could even sneak in with no more wins so long as Port doesn’t win any more either, and the Dogs and Dockers fall in a hole.

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9. PORT ADELAIDE — 36, 106.1%

Rd 21 Sydney (AO)

Rd 22 North Melbourne (Marvel)

Rd 23 Fremantle (AO)

We’re calling it — if the favourites win every game from here, Port will play finals. And we all know Port can be trusted to win four in a row ... right? They can get in with two wins so long as the Crows don’t upset either the Eagles or the Pies. In that case the Round 23 clash against the Dockers is likely to be a playoff for a September berth.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS — 36, 95.8%

Rd 21 Essendon (Marvel)

Rd 22 GWS Giants (GS)

Rd 23 Adelaide (Ballarat)

A win against the Lions would have been massive, and the Dogs had their chances. But they aren’t out of it, despite facing an uphill battle from here. There are a lot of different scenarios involving the teams around them but it really comes down to Round 22 at Giants Stadium — the venue of the Dogs’ 2016 prelim final heroics. Can they repeat the effort? Win all three and they probably make it, with Essendon and the Crows both vulnerable. The AFL has floated the idea of a wildcard round to decide finals spots and they might get it in effect on Sunday August 25 at Mars Stadium.

Can Marcus Bontempelli lift the Dogs into the eight?

Robbie Gray will have a big say in Port Adelaide’s fortunes.

11. FREMANTLE — 36, 95.8%

Rd 21 St Kilda (Marvel)

Rd 22 Essendon (PS)

Rd 23 Port Adelaide (AO)

Freo in the finals seems ridiculous but it’s far from it given the Dockers’ draw, and those of their top-eight rivals. They don’t even have to win all their remaining matches — two would be enough if both Adelaide and Essendon lose their last three. Win all three and they can afford for the Crows and the Bombers to win one. If either of those two teams win two out of three, Freo is cooked.

12. HAWTHORN — 32, 98.4%

Rd 21 GWS Giants (Canberra)

Rd 22 Gold Coast (Marvel)

Rd 23 West Coast (PS)

The Hawks are a game behind the Dockers which makes things more difficult. In fact, looking at the fixture they would need a miracle, starting with three wins against two quality opponents and Gold Coast (sorry, Suns). After that Hawks fans want Adelaide to win two games, Fremantle and Port Adelaide to win no more than one and Essendon to lose all three. But it’s not impossible — yet.

13. NORTH MELBOURNE — 32, 97.2%

Rd 21 Geelong (GMHBA)

Rd 22 Port Adelaide (Marvel)

Rd 23 Melbourne (Hobart)

The Kangas need to win their last three games and bank on the Hawks losing one, plus all the scenarios described for Hawthorn above. Extremely unlikely but a win against Geelong this week would throw ladder predictions into a frenzy from top spot down.

Josh Bruce and the Saints can dare to dream ... for one more week, at least.

14. ST KILDA — 32, 84.5%

Rd 21 Fremantle (Marvel)

Rd 22 Carlton (MCG)

Rd 23 Sydney (SCG)

Now we’re getting into the realms of the fantastic, but still mathematically possible. The Saints’ last three games are all very winnable, so that’s the first step. After that a lot of results have to go their way, and they have to make up a lot of percentage. It’s unlikely, but here’s how it could pan out:

ROUND 21

— St Kilda beats Fremantle by about 50 points

— Essendon loses to the Bulldogs by about 50 points

— Sydney beats Port Adelaide

— Geelong defeats North Melbourne

ROUND 22

— Saints have a big win over Carlton

— Essendon cops a belting from Fremantle in Perth

— North Melbourne defeats Port Adelaide

— GWS wins against the Bulldogs

ROUND 23

— St Kilda thumps the Swans at the SCG

— Collingwood beats Essendon by at least 20 points

— Port Adelaide wins against Fremantle

... and the ladder would look something like this:

How the ladder could look in Round 23 ... if everything falls St Kilda's way

Originally published as Run Home: What every club must do to make the finals