Moneyball trade column: Deal for Harris Andrews in the works, Vic clubs eye ‘gettable’ Peter Wright, Pies profit from academy players
Melbourne might have had a win on the field, after a torrid week of criticism off it, but the new gets worse, with its risky punt on pick trading set to blow up in its face. Get all the latest trade, draft and off-season buzz here.
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Veteran list builder Chris Pelchen says Melbourne’s potential trade bungle with its first-round pick highlights the risk in future trading.
And Pelchen says clubs with father-son and academy selections at this year’s draft will have a huge advantage given their knowledge of players who haven’t stepped out all year.
Melbourne is staring down the barrel of a dud deal given it is second-last on the ladder.
The Demons backed themselves in to fly up the ladder when they secured the Roos’ No. 8 selection of 2019 for last year’s No. 26 and 50 picks plus this year’s first-rounder.
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North Melbourne would have won the trade on pure points value even if the Demons finished first this year given Melbourne’s determination to secure the impressive Kosi Pickett.
But with the Demons languishing in second-last spot, the trade will be woefully imbalanced unless they can rise up the ladder in the next 12 weeks.
The Demons have an extra game in hand but even on a comparison that puts them third-last.
North Melbourne currently has 3226 draft points in the deal compared to the Demons’ 1551, with the Demons effectively handing over an extra No. 8 selection in points value.
The Roos have their own first-rounder this year plus the Demons’ selection at pick two, having been prepared to bide their time last year.
The Roos picked up Charlie Comben with pick 31, Jack Mahony with pick 34 and Flynn Perez at pick 35, with Mahony having already made an impressive debut.
Said Pelchen of the trade: “Future trading is always risky because you are speculating. When you are trading players it’s about exposed form but when you are talking about future trading (it) is not exposed form. Maybe in terms of the players you bring in but the draft by its very nature is a higher-risk venture than trading player for players.
IS 2M PETER HEADED BACK TO MELBOURNE?
Melbourne clubs are beginning to sniff around Gold Coast big man Peter Wright given his ability to play up forward and in the ruck.
The stunning emergence of second-year key forward Ben King has cost Wright, who has been overlooked for selection over the first five rounds.
While the Moonee Valley product is contracted for one more season up north, there is an increasing view across the industry that he is gettable.
The 203cm goal kicker is an intriguing proposition for a club such as Essendon which is on the lookout for a Joe Daniher replacement and Geelong which needs to find an heir to Tom Hawkins’ throne.
But Wright’s trade value is hard to assess as the man nicknamed “Two Metre Peter” is yet to fulfil his potential as a sky-scraping key forward or ruckman.
The 23-year-old booted 21 goals from 17 games last year but did not place inside the top-10 of the Suns’ best and fairest.
The Suns are in a strong position to either keep Wright as a back-up big man or trade him for another senior player or top-30 pick.
Industry sources are convinced Wright could do with a fresh start as King has cemented his position as the first-choice key forward alongside Alex Sexton and athletic marking target Sam Day.
Essendon and Geelong are both extremely keen on GWS Giants’ spearhead Jeremy Cameron who is a free agent at season’s end.
The Giants are confident Cameron will stay, prompting the Bombers and Cats to look at other key forward options.
There was little time for Essendon to arrange a suitable trade for Daniher after he requested a move to Sydney Swans late last season.
BIG LION IN FOR HEALTHY PAY DAY
The game’s best defender Harris Andrews will this year sign a contract extension past 2021 that will secure his future at Brisbane and give him a hefty pay rise.
Andrews had a dirty night against Geelong but AFL legend Luke Hodge said of him this week: “He’d be close to the best defender I have played with”.
The Herald Sun can reveal preliminary talks have been had on a contract that would be extended past his current tenure.
The future Lions captain re-signed in 2017 but as the heir apparent to Alex Rance is not on massive money, which would surely change given his status in the game.
Rance was on around $800,000 at the peak of his powers and Andrews has a similar balance of stingy defence and intercept marking.
His manager Shane Casley said on Friday Andrews was open to an extension.
“We are certainly always having talks with Brisbane about Harris. He is contracted but we have had some preliminary talks. Everything has been put on hold but I would imagine some time in the next six months we would try to do something.
“They have got such a young group coming together up there and he loved being part of it.”
The Lions have every one of their priority signings locked away past 2020 including Hugh McCluggage (2021), Eric Hipwood (2023), Lachie Neale (2022), and Tom Berry (2024).
McCluggage would be another target to extend when the AFL releases its freeze on contracts given his brilliant form.
PIES SET TO CLEAN UP IN FATHER-SON/ACADEMY WINS
IT was the fight over northern-states academies that saw Sydney chairman Andrew Pridham label Eddie McGuire and his fellow critics as “intellectual pygmies”.
But while the Pies president led the charge for the AFL to reduce the size of GWS academies, Collingwood can hardly complain any more.
If not for the injury to Josh Daicos and dropping of Tyler Brown, they would have played five father-sons and two Next Generation academy members from their Oakleigh zone.
The father-sons are Darcy Moore, Cal Brown, Will Kelly, with Isaac Quaynor and Atu Bosenavulagi, with Nick Daicos the likely No. 1 pick next year.
Quaynor also has three younger brothers who can be part of the Pies academy.
Collingwood accesses a discount on all of its father-son and academy players like every club, so no one at the Pies could complain about fair access any more.
The Pies and other clubs restricted the ability of GWS to secure players in the Riverine Area, with McGuire saying the zones were too generous.
McGuire said GWS’s talent stockpile was “getting out of kilter and now is the time to make adjustments before it goes too far”.
“I’m not chairman of the board on this (debate) but what I would like to see is a couple of very, very weak people in football … step up for once.”
Sydney chairman Pridgham tweeted in one chapter of the spat: “Typical rubbish from intellectual pygmies. Not a truth in sight.”
He then apologised, but only to pygmies.
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“In terms of the North Melbourne deal, North Melbourne are ahead in that trade. Time will tell what that pick becomes. At the time I could see why both clubs did that deal but future trading is risky and ultimately people judge future trading in retrospect while the deals are made prospectively. It’s very much a risk in itself.”
There will be as many as 15 of the first 30 picks made from father-son and academy picks, and those clubs with links to them have watched the players for years and had them training at their clubs.
Pelchen says it will give the clubs a huge helping hand in assessing talent – not to mention the discount they get selecting them – given so many players only flourish in their final junior season.
Originally published as Moneyball trade column: Deal for Harris Andrews in the works, Vic clubs eye ‘gettable’ Peter Wright, Pies profit from academy players