Footy Form: Chris Cavanagh’s best bets plus TAB market movers for Round 4
Chris Cavanagh has poured over the form to find the best betting value in Round 4 and believes Essendon could be vulnerable against a Carlton side on a high after last week’s surprise win. Check out his punting tips.
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A bumper Round 4 is here in the AFL.
Footy tipping guru Chris Cavanagh takes a look at all the games and all the odds, plus where the money has been going and who the TAB market movers have been this week.
GWS GIANTS v COLLINGWOOD
Giants Stadium, Friday 7.50pm
The Magpies look value here.
The premiership favourites haven’t really put a foot wrong so far this season and are coming off an impressive 44-point win over St Kilda.
Collingwood has conceded only five goals in each of its three matches – its defence rock solid.
The Giants, on the other hand, have problems.
They have kicked a combined 12 goals in two weeks, including four last week in a 24-point loss to the Western Bulldogs.
The Magpies will be out for revenge against a team that toppled them by four points in last year’s preliminary final.
Collingwood to win by 1-39 points looks appealing at $2.05.
TAB odds: GWS $2.10, Collingwood $1.75
Moneyball: Collingwood has attracted 76 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
FRIDAY NIGHT FACTS: GIANTS v MAGPIES
- The Giants scored a four-point win when these sides last met in last year’s preliminary final at the MCG.
- GWS has won four of its past five meetings against Collingwood dating back to Round 8, 2017.
- Collingwood’s sole win during that period came by 10 points in the 2018 semi-final at the MCG.
- GWS holds a 1-1 record at Giants Stadium this season after going 7-2 last year.
- Collingwood has lost consecutive games at Giants Stadium, most recently by 47 points in Round 18 last year.
- The Magpies are yet to play interstate this season but held a 4-1 record outside of Victoria last year.
- Collingwood’s defence has conceded 107 points from its three games this season, with the Giants’ defence having conceded almost double the points with 210.
TAB’S FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Greater Western Sydney’s Stephen Coniglio and Collingwood’s Steele Sidebottom to combine for 50+ disposals is $2.50
PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST
Metricon Stadium, Saturday 1.45pm
Most experts had the Eagles as a top-four side entering this year. As it stands, they are in the bottom-four entering Round 4 and have a mountain of problems.
The Eagles are getting smashed around the ball and are struggling to score when the do get it forward – kicking just six goals in each of their past two matches.
Meanwhile, Port is 3-0 and scored a 42-point win in Perth when these sides last met in Round 5 last season.
The Power at the -8.5 point line look appealing.
TAB odds: Port Adelaide $1.62, West Coast $2.35
Moneyball: Port Adelaide has attracted 60 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
ST KILDA v RICHMOND
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm
These two teams are coming off stinkers last week but one will get things back on track.
As bad as Richmond were against Hawthorn in Round 3, it’s hard to go past the reigning premiers.
The Tigers scored a 33-point win last time they met St Kilda in Round 15 last season and will be boosted by the return of Dustin Martin.
If the Saints produce what they did against the Bulldogs in Round 2, they could cause an upset.
But I like Richmond by 1-39 points at $1.85.
TAB odds: St Kilda $2.75, Richmond $1.45
Moneyball: Richmond has attracted 87 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
CARLTON v ESSENDON
MCG, Saturday 7.40pm
It has been some week for the Bombers.
Last weekend, it looked like they could lose their whole backline after Connor McKenna’s positive COVID-19 test.
In the end, no players from the club’s Round 2 side were forced into quarantine.
However, time will tell what sort of toll the week — and effectively a bye — has taken on players.
It could be significant.
The Blues beat Geelong at the Cattery last week, which is no easy feat, and are capable of another upset.
TAB odds: Essendon $1.75, Carlton $2.10
Moneyball: Carlton has attracted 85 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
GOLD COAST v FREMANTLE
Metricon Stadium, Saturday 7.40pm
The Suns are rising before our eyes and are a very good chance to win a third-straight game for just the fourth time in the club’s history here.
Confidence is sky-high after big wins over Adelaide and West Coast and the Suns are playing an exciting, sustainable brand of football.
Gold Coast beat Fremantle in Round 2 last year and should do so again.
I like Gold Coast by 1-39 points at $1.95.
TAB Odds: Gold Coast $1.70, Fremantle $2.20
Moneyball: Gold Coast has attracted 86 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
BRISBANE LIONS v ADELAIDE
Gabba, Sunday 1.05pm
The Crows are in a world of pain with a myriad of issues.
It looks like not only being a tough time in the Gold Coast hub for Adelaide but also a long season after last week’s belting at the hands of Gold Coast.
The Lions have won their past two games and are sure to make that three at home.
Consider Brisbane at the -31.5 point line.
Adelaide has lost its past two matches by 53 and 75 points and this could be another blowout.
TAB Odds: Brisbane $1.14, Adelaide $5.80
Moneyball: Brisbane has attracted 76 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
MELBOURNE v GEELONG
MCG, Sunday 3.35pm
What to make of this?
Geelong came back from 42 points down last week to almost beat Carlton but didn’t, while Melbourne played against itself after its clash with Essendon was postponed.
The last time these sides met in Round 2 last year, the Cats won by 80 points.
But I have a gut feeling a fresh Demons might cause an upset here.
If this was at Kardinia Park, I would be leaning a different way.
But the Cats haven’t played at the MCG yet this year and have lost three of their past four games at the venue.
The +12.5 point line for Melbourne is appealing.
TAB Odds: Melbourne $2.60, Geelong $1.50
Moneyball: Geelong has attracted 68 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
HAWTHORN v NORTH MELBOURNE
Marvel Stadium, Sunday 6.10pm
A ‘home’ game for Hawthorn at Docklands doesn’t happen often.
The Hawks don’t even play there much at all.
Hawthorn was super against Richmond last week, but was it a one out of the box?
I’m expecting the Kangaroos to respond after their loss to Sydney.
North scored a 22-point win when these sides last met in Round 20 last year.
The $2.70 on offer for the Roos to win by 1-39 points looks juicy.
TAB Odds: Hawthorn $1.62, North Melbourne $2.35
Moneyball: Hawthorn has attracted 70 per cent of head-to-head bets with TAB
ROUND 4 MARKET MOVERS
PREMIERSHIP
Port Adelaide were $26 before Round 2 and are now $9
West Coast were $6.50 before Round 2 and are now $10
BROWNLOW MEDAL
Matt Rowell was inserted at $81 after Round 2 and is now $21
Three $100 bets were placed at $81
Rowell is the fourth-most popular player behind Patrick Cripps, Lachie Neale and Marcus Bontempelli
RISING STAR
Matt Rowell now $1.10 favourite; shortest price favourite after three rounds of a season
Rowell opened $3; was $3.40 before Round 1; $3 before Round 2 and $1.30 before Round 3
MOST LOSSES
Adelaide were $7 before Round 2; $3 before Round 3 and now $1.65
Fremantle were $7 before Round 2; $8 before Round 3 and now $4.50
Gold Coast were $1.70 before Round 2; $2.50 before Round 3 and now $6
BIG BETS
$4,790 @ $1.45 on Richmond d St Kilda
$3,000 @ $1.70 on Gold Coast d Fremantle
$2,900 @ $1.36 on Brisbane to win by 16+ Points v Adelaide
$2,000 @ $6 on Patrick Cripps (Brownlow Medal)
$1,900 @ $1.70 on Gold Coast d Fremantle
Originally published as Footy Form: Chris Cavanagh’s best bets plus TAB market movers for Round 4