AFL run home 2020: Where will your team finish on the ladder?
It all comes down to this. There are no second chances here. It’s do or die. One round, four teams, two finals spots. Which two of the Saints, Dogs, Dees and Giants are good enough to make it? Plus: Could the Cats fall out of the top four?
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There is only one rounds to go in the AFL season and top-four and top-eight spots are still up for grabs for a number of teams.
We’ve taken a look at the final round to try to work out what the ladder might look like at season’s end.
Will your team make it?
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THE RUN HOME
1. PORT ADELAIDE
Played 16, 52 pts, 136.4 per cent
TO COME
R18: Collingwood, Gabba, Mon Sep 21 (W)
WE SAY: Brushed aside the Bombers in the wet which means a top-two finish and home qualifying final is guaranteed. Will finish as minor premier for the first time since 2004 if they beat Collingwood in the final round or Brisbane loses to Carlton. Nine wins from their last 11 games means the Power hit finals in very strong form.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Played 16, 52 pts, 124.7 per cent
TO COME
R18: Carlton, Gabba, Sat Sep 19 (W)
WE SAY: An underwhelming first three quarters against the Swans in Round 17, but the Lions lifted when they were challenged in the last quarter to boot six final-term goals and come away with a 32-point triumph. A home final is now locked in, it’s just a matter of whether Brisbane finishes first or second. The Lions have now won their past six games and should make that seven against Carlton.
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
3. RICHMOND
Played 16, 46 pts, 125.8 per cent
TO COME
R18: Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, Sat Sep 19 (W)
WE SAY: Massive win against Geelong in Round 17, which means only a win over bottom-of-the-ladder Adelaide is now needed to lock in a top-four finish for the fourth time in as many years. The Tigers have now won seven of their past eight games to sit as a clear premiership favourite at $3.60 with bookmaker TAB. They’ll just be hoping Tom Lynch (hamstring) is fit again in time for the first final.
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
4. GEELONG
Played 16, 44 pts, 138.9 per cent
TO COME
R18: Sydney, Metricon Stadium, Sun Sep 20 (W)
WE SAY: A big blow against Richmond in Round 17, the Cats held to just one goal to three-quarter-time in what was a 26-point loss. However, a superior percentage to West Coast means Geelong needs only to beat Sydney in the final round to lock in a top-four finish. Lose that game and they would finish fifth if West Coast beats North Melbourne as expected.
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
5. WEST COAST
Played 16, 44 pts, 116 per cent
TO COME
R18: North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, Thurs Sep 17 (W)
WE SAY: A gutsy performance against St Kilda in Round 17, but top-four hopes now looked dashed after Richmond upset Geelong the following night. The Eagles should beat North Melbourne, but will need to rely on Geelong losing to Sydney or Richmond losing to Adelaide to sneak into the top-four. Highly unlikely.
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
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6. COLLINGWOOD
Played 16, 38 pts, 112.2 per cent
TO COME
R18: Port Adelaide, Gabba, Mon Sep 21 (L)
WE SAY: A hard-fought Round 17 win over Gold Coast Suns means finals are locked in for a third-straight season. What a difference having Jordan De Goey back in the forward line and Adam Treloar back in the midfield makes. Top-four is out of reach, meaning the Pies will finish sixth, seventh or eighth regardless of the result of their final-round clash with Port Adelaide.
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
7. ST KILDA
Played 16, 36 pts, 111.4 per cent
TO COME
R18: GWS, Gabba, Fri Sep 18 (W)
WE SAY: Coughed up a strong start to suffer a disappointing loss to West Coast in Round 17. The Saints have now lost four of their past five games but were the big winners out of Melbourne’s upset win over Greater Western Sydney. A win against the Giants will make for a first finals campaign since 2011 a certainty. Even if the Saints lose that game, the Bulldogs would have to beat Fremantle, and Melbourne would have to beat Essendon – while also making up more 5.2 per cent on St Kilda – for Brett Ratten’s side to miss finals. All but locked in. And, given the Giants’ recent form you have to think the Saints win anyway.
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played 16, 36 points, 103.9 per cent
TO COME
R18: Fremantle, Cairns, Sun Sep 20 (W)
WE SAY: Arguably should have beaten Hawthorn by more, having held a 40-point lead at halftime and only winning by 36 points. Some more percentage would have been nice, but the Bulldogs are in the top-eight entering the final round and the spot is theirs to lose. Should beat the Dockers to make for back-to-back finals campaigns.
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
9. MELBOURNE
Played 16, 32 points, 106.2 per cent
TO COME
R18: Essendon, Metricon Stadium, Sat Sep 19 (W)
WE SAY: The rollercoaster season continued after a win over the Giants that gave Melbourne a sniff at playing finals football once again. But the Demons now need a miracle. They would need to beat Essendon and hope the Western Bulldogs lose to Fremantle. They could also take St Kilda’s spot if the Saints lose to Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne is able to make up more than 5.2 percentage points. It all seems unlikely, but in a crazy season anything is possible.
PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
10. GWS GIANTS
Played 16, 32 pts, 100.6 per cent
TO COME
R18: St Kilda, Gabba, Fri Sep 18 (L)
WE SAY: Outside the top-eight now and on the outer as far as finals are concerned after consecutive losses to Adelaide and Melbourne. The Giants’ poor percentage does not help their cause – 3.3 per cent worse than any other side contending for a finals spot. GWS would need to beat St Kilda and hope the Western Bulldogs lose to Fremantle, and Melbourne loses to Essendon. That scenario would get them into eighth spot. However, that all seems a serious longshot and after the past month the Giants don’t look deserving of a finals spot anyway.
PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
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PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Port Adelaide (56 points)
2. Brisbane Lions (56 points)
3. Richmond (50 points)
4. Geelong (48 points)
5. West Coast (48 points)
6. St Kilda (40 points)
7. Western Bulldogs (40 points)
8. Collingwood (38 points)
9. Melbourne (36 points)
10. GWS (32 points)
11. Fremantle (28 points)
12. Carlton (28 points)
13. Gold Coast (26 points)
14. Essendon (26 points)
15. Sydney (20 points)
16. Hawthorn (16 points)
17. North Melbourne (12 points)
18. Adelaide (12 points)
PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS SCHEDULE
Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide v Geelong
Qualifying Final: Brisbane v Richmond
Elimination Final: West Coast v Collingwood
Elimination Final: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS (September 13)
$3.60 Richmond
$4.50 Geelong
$5.50 Brisbane
$7 Port Adelaide
$9 West Coast
$17 Collingwood
$21 Western Bulldogs
$41 GWS Giants
$67 St Kilda
$67 Melbourne
Originally published as AFL run home 2020: Where will your team finish on the ladder?