AFL Rules Summit: The best football minds in the game debate potential rule changes for the 2019 season
THE AFL has investigated more than 30 potential rule changes for next season. In a special report, some of the best minds in the game have come together to debate what impact these dramatic changes will have.
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SCRIBBLED on a whiteboard behind a locked door at AFL House were more than 30 rule changes.
Some outrageous, some subtle. Some in line with the AFL’s Charter, some not and duly scrubbed.
The AFL’s October deadline to formalise rule changes is three months away and about eight rules remain on the board.
The primary objective is to crack open ugly congestion. Scoring is at its lowest since 1968 and contested possession is at a record high.
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In 2006, teams averaged 113 contested possessions a game. In 2018, teams are averaging 145.7 and scoring just 83.1 points.
Football boss Steve Hocking has vowed to move football forward, rather than restore it to the supposed glory days of last century.
“Players are faster and fitter and stronger than they’ve ever been,” Hocking said this week.
“But at the same time system defence is now winning out, and that dominates football.”
WHAT IS CONGESTION?
THE AFL becomes frustrated when 36 players share the same blades of grass. They are sick of 18-man zones and packs of 30 rolling around the ground.
Modern football is a territory game and time in forward half is a proven premiership ingredient.
Richmond (2017), Western Bulldogs (2016), Hawthorn (2015 and 2013) and Geelong (2011) all ranked No.2 for territory while Collingwood (2010) and Geelong (2007) ranked No.1.
Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson says grubby kicks to create a forward stoppage are now applauded, rather than sublime transitional play.
Coaching innovator Rodney Eade explained on a specially convened rules panel this week that the point of congesting was to eliminate space.
“Players are placed a kick and a bit behind the ball,” Eade said.
“So if it’s in your forward pocket, you want your defenders to squeeze up so the opposition don’t have space to run the ball out.
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“Then you’ve got extra numbers at the contest. It’s putting pressure on the bloke with the footy so hopefully he hack kicks, and then you’ve got a chance of re-entering.
“You’re trying to take away the space for the opposition to work in to get the ball out of their back 50.”
Hocking knows this only too well and he’s had enough: “When there’s 36 around the ball and I’m sitting there and I can’t see the football, that’s not sustainable.”
And so the AFL’s mission is to implement rule changes to spread players out.
INTERCHANGE
THIS is high on the AFL’s agenda but is likely to face fierce opposition from the players.
The AFLPA is gauging feedback at club visits now, but has traditionally voted against any reduction.
Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury joked he would have to retire if rotations were capped at 20. He pondered whether that would cater for endurance athletes and kill off some explosive stars.
Eade reckons the magic number is 90 rotations – which is what we’ve had since 2016.
“Let’s say for 40 and below, there’s a lot of unintended consequences,” Eade said.
“I’ve thought about this, and I agree with Scott. Does it push a Cyril Rioli out of the competition?
“He’s done his hamstrings a lot, he gets fatigued, he needs breaks. If he’s got to stay on longer, does that mean he’s going to miss more games? Does it make it harder for explosive players?”
Port Adelaide list manager Jason Cripps said slashing rotations plus bringing in starting points would cause a sharp drop in game quality.
“Putting my coach’s hat on — players are tired (so) are we going to see them chip sideways, chip backwards (and) maintain possession to minimise risk?
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“I’d be interested in what starting positions and actually going back to unlimited rotations looks like. Will it speed up the game? Will it allow players to stay fresh so the skill level is a higher level?”
Eade is certain coaches will outsmart rule makers.
“The genie is out of the bottle. We can’t ask players to go slower, they’re already going so quick,” Eade said.
“So coaches will find ways to take time off the clock to save their legs, because they can’t rotate. It’ll be chip sideways. You know how we kick it to the point post to get a boundary throw-in at the forward pocket?
“We’ll do that on the wing or a back flank. Punch it out of bounds, regroup, get our oxygen. So the aesthetics of the game will suffer.”
The consensus is starting points will trigger scoreboard blowouts when top teams take on strugglers. But Eade warned it was rotation cuts that would lead to thrashings.
“You talk about blowouts – when fatigue sets in, there’s a lot more errors,” Eade said.
“But the Hawthorns of 2013, 2014 and 2015 will smash teams. Because they will not give (the ball) up and the other team will give it up without any pressure, and they go bang and score. I’m sure of it, there’ll be more blowouts.”
Cripps said kicking could become “a premium again” for recruiters after years of draftees with questionable skills.
“If we’re going down the path of reducing rotations and coaches are looking at maintaining the ball, recruiting and list management needs time to assess it so we can profile players,” Cripps said.
“You look at the kids coming through the last few years, it’s a really small number of elite kicks.
“So like Rocket said, you’re going to see some very, very ugly games.”
SCOTT PENDLEBURY: “You’d remove a lot of the explosive players from the game. The high flyers, the high speed players. You’d have to target endurance players. It’s going to be tough on all clubs to alter their lists.”
NATHAN BUCKLEY: “We had a period there in the third quarter (of Round 15) where we didn’t rotate anyone for about 20 minutes. So that was on us, and that bites you. That might be a heads-up to what it looks like if you want to drop rotations right back. That’s what the footy is going to look like. Players are going to be that fatigued the skills will drop right off.”
STARTING POSITIONS
STEVE Hocking’s insistence on correcting those who call these “zones” is a hint. They are “starting positions” and they are almost certainly coming.
The most likely option is starting either two or three pairs in both 50m arcs at every stoppage, and fielding six players in each third of the field at centre bounces.
Anchoring one of those pairs — a full-forward and full-back — in goalsquares at stoppages was trialled, but seems a stretch.
The goal is to create space in front of stoppages and restore positional play.
“There’s no Johnny Plattens running around anymore,” Clarkson laments.
“There’s no classical wingmen. The highest goalkicker (Ben Brown) two-thirds of the way through the season has kicked (42) goals – that’s not the footy I knew.”
The most attractive games this season have contained high scores from stoppages, because midfielders who win clearances have space to make smart decisions, instead of hacking it forward to a two-on-three contest.
Think Cats-Hawks on Easter Monday and Dons-Roos last week.
Under starting positions, forwards couldn’t sprint all the way up the ground to congest.
Venturing too far would come with the risk that if the whistle blows for a stoppage and you haven’t returned, you are penalised.
In 2018 there are 61.2 stoppages a game – that’s a lot of return trips.
“It’s a lot harder as a defender because you have to be back in the cage,” Joel Hamling said after Fremantle’s trial.
“That means, if you get up the ground, you have to get back. It’s a lot of running.
“If you’re playing as a defender, you’ll see more one-on-one contests.”
Premiership coach Paul Roos and Power coach Ken Hinkley warn that some players wouldn’t see the ball.
“I saw it for two years in the TAC Cup and it just doesn’t work,” Roos said.
“If it’s a windy day, you’ve got four forwards standing there for two quarters saying, ‘Hang on, I haven’t touched it’.”
Eade said that wasn’t a valid argument, pointing to the cover grandstands provide at most AFL venues.
“They can come up to halfway. It only takes six seconds to get back inside 50,” Eade said.
Some TAC Cup umpires have told the Herald Sun it is a difficult rule to police. Imagine the pressure on pinging a player for being out of position in front of 95,000 at a Grand Final?
How would the AFL adjudicate it? Linesmen? A video umpire?
“We’ll have four umpires, won’t we?” Eade said.
“They can count three players, can’t they? You can count them from 50m away. It’s not that difficult.”
It’s understood the AFL is pondering fines or free kicks for a breach.
“Make it simple – a free kick where the ball is,” Eade said.
“Coaches hate free kicks. I wouldn’t be anal about it. If you’re making an extreme attempt – not a jog and ‘oh, I’m just short’ – to get there, I wouldn’t pay a free kick.
“Pay the blatant ones where you’re a man short. People will say are ‘what about if both teams have got one out?’ Well the one who’s the farthest away, it goes against him and he won’t do it again.”
The AFL is likely to point to the success of starting positions at junior level in its sell, but Cripps said under-age football was poles apart from AFL.
Another club recruiter suggested AFL starting positions would alter the ranking of draft prospects.
Teenagers who are strong one-on-one or boast an electric outside game might climb talent boards.
With less claustrophobia around stoppages, explosive midfielders like a Chris Judd would have space to entertain.
Does that push homesick WA boy Tim Kelly’s value north? Will starting positions hinder intercept kings, such as Jake Lever, Jeremy Howe and, recently, Nick Vlastuin?
Will it help talls taken early in the draft? Eade said they currently had to endure “another wave of development” to unlock their potential.
“In under-18s they play a pure key-position role,” Eade said.
“Key forwards in AFL are asked to get up and back, so it’s a lot more aerobic capacity. And with interceptors as well and numbers back, young developing talls are struggling because they’re not used to that.”
No.1 pick Cameron Rayner said Brisbane’s rules trial was a throwback to the TAC Cup.
“It made the game go a lot faster, I’m not sure if that’s good or bad,” Rayner told the Herald Sun.
“You got a one-on-one contest and could take people down to the goal square, which was fun. That was the main thing I loved about it.
“On the other side, being so far away from the ball when it goes in the defensive half you have to really work up and work back, so you get tired pretty quickly.”
LUKE BEVERIDGE: “The umpires have so much on their mind trying to police the game as it is. Players being able to run wherever has been such an attractive part of our game, and that’s why kids play it. They love the freedom. It’ll create a whole new set of headaches (and) some layers that’ll reverberate through the pathways”
DAYNE ZORKO: “It was a lot more open around stoppages. The only down was waiting for the forwards and defenders to head back to the box, that was eight or nine seconds that the game probably could’ve played for”.
HARRIS ANDREW: “It took away a little bit of the team-defence mechanism and opens up the ground. It plays to the strength of good one-on-one players and that’s what the fans come to see. It’s probably a little bit tougher for the defenders from that point of view, in regards to making up a lot more ground by getting up the ground and then getting back inside 50 when there is a stoppage. But it certainly opened up the game.”
MICHAEL WALTERS: “It was pretty good (and) that’s what footy’s been missing as well. You want to see Nat Fyfe take on the best players, so him and (Patrick) Cripps going at it head-to-head.”
RUN AND GUN
CONGESTION seems to have wounded the running bounce. In 2008 there were 36 running bounces a game. That dropped to 22 in 2013 and now there are just six per team.
And so the AFL has trialled allowing players to run 20m or 25m – up from 15m – without bouncing the ball. At Brisbane’s trial few Lions managed to run that far, while wet conditions didn’t help the Dockers.
“Running 25m might be possible, Saady (Essendon speedster Adam Saad) might be able to get out and go,” Eade said.
“But with the defensive mechanisms it’s probably going to be difficult. I don’t think it’d change the game much.”
SHORTER GAMES
PREMIERSHIP coach Damien Hardwick’s call for shorter matches drips with authority.
“When you look at games with young sides, the blowouts tend to happen in the last five minutes of quarters,” Hardwick said.
“If it’s all about what’s best for the competition, I think it’s a no-brainer.”
Shorter games would probably harm the Tigers and, with coaches renowned for bending the rules in their favour, Hardwick’s views are both noble and credible.
This year Richmond has outscored opponents by 177 points in the final 10 minutes of quarters, which is 73 points more than the No.2 team Hawthorn.
Eade and AFL Players’ Association president Patrick Dangerfield want games cut to about 100 minutes, which likely means 17-minute quarters plus time on.
Dangerfield said that would allow teams to play off five-day breaks or more six-day breaks, helping deliver a spike in Thursday night games.
CHRIS SCOTT: “If the game was much shorter there would be a really strong argument to stretch the season and assist the integrity of the game by having more teams play each other twice. I don’t think we’d lose much from the spectacle if the game was up to even 25 per cent shorter.”
PRIOR OPPORTUNITY
PREMIERSHIP coaches Clarkson and Hardwick have campaigned for eliminating prior opportunity.
Remember the 2016 semi-final when Hawthorn laid 104 tackles and was rewarded with three holding the ball free kicks.
“How can you lay 104 tackles and not even 20 of them be done for holding the ball for incorrect disposal?” Clarkson said that night.
Would removing prior opportunity erase ugly repeat tackles?
“We can be a bit tougher on holding the ball, even though it’s pretty tough now,” Eade said.
“But if you take prior opportunity away, do players become smarter to sweat on the opposition.
“Do we take the player away from getting the ball first? You get close enough, I’m with you, you get it, I’ll grab you and you can’t get rid of it. You haven’t had prior opportunity but bad luck – it’s a free kick against you.
“If you take away total prior opportunity the ball players are just going to get (swarmed). There’ll be more surges and knock-ons, I suppose.”
In 2008 umpires paid 3.6 holding the balls per team, while in 2018 it is at a record-high 4.7 per team.
Cripps said a fourth umpire would help eliminate whistles missed.
“You sit at different vantage points at the ground and you can see a guy hasn’t disposed of it correctly, but the umpire just hasn’t got the view because there’s so many numbers around the footy,” Cripps said.
“I agree with Rocket, there’s another one of those (unintended) consequences.”
COSMETIC CHANGES
Rodney Eade was the first to champion starting positions, in 2009.
After Eade’s Bulldogs lost a NAB Challenge match to Ross Lyon’s St Kilda, and its revolutionary frontal press known as ‘The Lyon Cage’, 8.13 (61) to 5.5 (35), Eade suggested the rule change.
Eade is still an advocate, but not for 2019 because he says the AFL simply hasn’t collected enough data.
“Throw the ball up (faster), bring the boundary throw-in 5m, and maybe a little bit tighter on holding the ball — but still give the player prior,” Eade said.
“See how subtle changes work and get a bigger sample (of starting positions).”
Cripps was confident Hocking’s offsider, scientist David Rath, would be seeking more information.
“To make significant changes you need a significant sample size — three training sessions is not enough,” Cripps said.
The list manager said the league should not discount organic change to ease congestion.
“Looking at games, teams are trying to lengthen the ground and we’re seeing more 6-6-6, it’s just naturally evolving.
“That’s my thing with rushing in and making significant changes. I actually don’t think the game is significantly broken.
“I think you can make subtle changes for 2019. Scrap the nomination of the ruck. It’s up to the two teams for them to decide. If two guys go up from the one team it’s a free kick.”
Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge calls them cosmetic changes.
“It’s a difficult one to debate dramatic change, because our game is so pure,” Beveridge said.
“There’s things currently in the game through the broadcast and the umpires not moving the game on quick enough that encourage and entice congestion.
“There’ll always be times when there’s a lot of numbers in certain areas. But let’s not be too dramatic.”
SCOTT PENDLEBURY: “Maybe the centre bounce you just throw it up, so you don’t worry about potentially three or four times a game where you have to call that ball back. We are in the entertainment industry and you want a really clean and user-friendly product.”
HOW ABOUT A BIGGER GOALSQUARE?
LEGEND Malcolm Blight has been campaigning for this idea.
The AFL hopes blowing the goalsquare out from 9m to either 18m or 25m will prove congestion-busting because kick-out specialists could launch the ball over defensive zones and open up the game.
Former coach Rodney Eade, a renowned tactician, and Port Adelaide list manager Jason Cripps weren’t so sure.
“There’ll be unintended consequences,” Eade told the Herald Sun.
“Do you bring a designated kicker in — a Trent McKenzie — off the bench, make an interchange and he kicks a barrel?
“It goes inside your 50m. Is that too big a reward for the opposition missing?”
On Grand Final day, a 65m roost from a 25m goalsquare would only need to roll 20m to reach the opposing arc.
Imagine shaving the post — or, worse, copping a dud video review — and the kick-out finds your defensive 50m?
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“You talk about risk, and if I’m the coach we can’t kick a point,” Eade said.
“We’d prefer to get a boundary throw-in and we’re going to have a shot from in front. Coaches have a defensive mindset and we can’t afford to kick a point.
“So we won’t take as many shots at goal, because we want to minimise our risk and we’re prepared to play in our forward (line) until we’re going to have a shot.
“If you kick 9.15 there’s 15 barrels that Lewis Jetta can kick and it puts it inside their 50m.
“Whoah, I don’t want that so you’re actually changing the game that way.”
In 2018, one in 10 kick-outs lead to an inside 50m, while one in 20 leads to a goal. Yet clubs kick goals from one in five centre clearances.
That’s 5 per cent from fullback, 20 per cent from a centre clearance.
Cripps said coaches would manipulate a defensive method to combat a larger goalsquare.
“What’s to stop more players just going behind centre and effectively bringing back the flood?” Cripps said.
“If there’s no restrictions around the zone, knowing Trent McKenzie’s kicking in, is one of the coaching methods going to be to put all 18 players behind centre?”
Former Essendon kick-out whiz Dustin Fletcher said a larger goalsquare would open up options.
“You would feel like you are out in the actual playing field, rather than back with the cheer squad,” Fletcher said.
From 1859-1876 footy had an 18-metre goalsquare, but when the sport was brought onto cricket pitches in 1877 it was shortened to 10 yards (9m).
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
THIS is what would be keeping Hocking and his AFL posse of Wrath, James Podsiadly, Hayden Kennedy and Grant Williams up at night.
Every rule change seems to trigger some unbalance, which wasn’t considered.
“For example, we eliminated the third-man up, which has preserved the role and influence of the ruckman,” Cripps said.
“Looking at that it has worked. But has it added to the congestion? The umpire stands there for two, three, five seconds waiting for two blokes to put their hand up.
“They’ll stand there and wait for the two recognised ruckman to get to stoppages. So five seconds allows players to come up to the stoppage, which creates more congestion.
“I look at the SANFL last touch (rule), which has obviously reduced throw-ins.
“But it’s increased uncontested marks, it’s increased clanger kicks and ineffective kicks.”
Eade has concerns about a bundle of reforms, which is very much on the cards.
“If they bring in two or three, I’d worry about the compound effect,” the master tactician said.
“So each one will have an effect, but then compounded with the next one it might be exponential.”
Beveridge, like Cripps, doesn’t think the game is broken, and warns against “drastic change”
“The biggest thing that’s wrong with the game are the people looking for things wrong with the game,” he said.
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Originally published as AFL Rules Summit: The best football minds in the game debate potential rule changes for the 2019 season
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