Moneyball: The latest contract updates and trade news in the AFL
The Hawks have impressed at times throughout 2023, but Sam Mitchell doesn’t appear set on his list to rise up the ladder just yet. Get the latest trade news in this week’s Moneyball.
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Jack Silvagni’s future at Carlton remains uncertain and may have been further complicated by the form of a fellow out of contract Blues currently part of club’s best 23 in the rundown to a possible finals berth.
Silvagni, who missed last week’s win over Collingwood with a jarred knee, has yet to be offered a new deal four weeks out from the end of the home-and-away season.
It comes as the Blues work through some delicate list management and salary cap issues, which could ultimately tip one of the most famous names in football out of Ikon Park.
Blues chief executive Brian Cook said last week the club was diligently working through its list of uncontracted players which still includes Silvagni, Mitch McGovern, David Cuningham, Lachie Fogarty, Caleb Marchbank and Paddy Dow.
McGovern could remain at the Blues on a greatly reduced financial figure, while Cuningham and Fogarty have played solid roles in all six games of the Blues’ winning streak - their only games of the 2023 season.
The club might have believed Cuningham, Fogarty and Marchbank would all be elsewhere or delisted next year but their improved form would put more pressure on the Blues salary cap.
Dow and Silvagni could find themselves at new clubs next season, with the Blues’ opponent this week in St Kilda a possible location for the latter.
Carlton has been linked to Saints free agent Jade Gresham with the Blues confident they can still bring in a player from elsewhere at the right price.
Silvagni kicked four goals against Port Adelaide three weeks ago, but his role in the team next year is far from guaranteed, given the club locked into ruckman Marc Pittonet for four more years, while De Koning will likely play forward-ruck alongside the duo of Charlie Curnow and McKay in attack.
DUMPLING DEALS
GWS Giants forward Harry Himmelberg dined on some of the finest dumplings in Sydney as he weighed up his future at the club last month.
While Carlton once famously flew Dylan Shiel in a private jet to Noosa in a bid to win his signature, the Giants made their informal pitch to star free agent Himmelberg at swanky Sydney Cantonese restaurant Mr Wong mid-season.
Key figures from GWS Giants including captain Toby Greene dined out with Himmelberg as the club discussed his key role at the club and its plans to blossom under new coach Adam Kingsley.
Mr Wong is regarded as one of the best restaurants in Sydney and while the mud crab and roasted duck are signature dishes, it was the vision for the future which the club hopes will win Himmelberg over.
This sort of pitch is common in AFL circles and in particular the Giants who hosted Jeremy Cameron as flash Sydney restaurant Rockpool before he committed to Geelong in 2020.
Sydney is also interested in Himmelberg but have since set their sights on West Coast’s Tom Barrass in a move which would cost the Swans a first-round draft pick as well as some ruck support.
Richmond circled Himmelberg, too, with close mates Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto behind the push to land another Giant at Punt Rd.
But the Giants remain confident they will re-sign the jet swingman on a minimum five-year deal after a move from attack to defence around mid-season.
Himmelberg, 27, has become a key prong in one of the most improved back lines in the competition as GWS attempt to seal a remarkable finals berth.
After a slow start to the season, GWS will aim for its eighth-straight win in the Battle of the Bridge against Sydney Swans on Saturday night at Giants’ Stadium.
Adam Kingsley’s men are in sixth spot on the ladder on 11 wins, needing to win at least two more to seal a top-eight berth against the Swans, Port Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton in the run home.
Rival clubs have noted Himmelberg has given the impression he has been relaxed about the big decision on his future.
SURPRISE SAINT
St Kilda defender Dougal Howard has attracted interest as a potential defensive option as the Saints consider significant changes to its list.
Howard, 27, was poached from Port Adelaide on a lucrative five-year deal worth as much as $600,000 a season to help hold up the club’s back line.
But the Saints are prepared to be aggressive in the exchange period and will consider some bold moves to help reinvigorate the list.
Howard’s pay packet is decent for a key defender who finished outside the top-10 of the best and fairest from 17 games last year.
Clubs chasing key defenders Ben McKay (North Melbourne), Esava Ratugolea (Geelong), Harry Himmelberg (GWS Giants) and Brandon Zerk Thatcher (Essendon) have also circled Howard’s name.
However, Howard is contracted for one more year, meaning he would have to be traded to a new club, netting the Saints a draft pick or player in return, if he was to find a third club.
Jade Gresham’s future at St Kilda remains uncertain after the free agent was dumped to the VFL amid interest from Carlton and Hawthorn.
Jack Billings is another who could attract interest after spending the bulk of the year in the VFL before a promotion to the senior side.
CAT CLEANOUT?
Geelong is determined to reinvest in the draft next year as it faces tough calls on a list that has 13 players 30 and over.
The Cats backed in their elder statesmen and the reward was the 2022 premiership, but Geelong could fall out of finals contention in coming weeks.
It would mean they face tough calls on Zach Tuohy and Isaac Smith, with Jon Ceglar and Sam Menegola also out of contract of the 30-plus brigade.
The Cats have been interested in the likes of Tom De Koning and Darcy Parish, but it is now apparent to the club it needs to continue bringing in elite young kids through the draft.
It means the club will use list spots on kids rather than more experience as it attempts to play Ollie Dempsey, Mitch Knevitt, Shannon Neale and Oisin Mullin.
The Cats have been linked to Fremantle’s Sean Darcy, but the impressive return of their young ruckman Toby Conway.
Coach Chris Scott has hinted at the club’s direction in recent weeks as he has grown increasingly frank about the fact the Cats need to make changes.
Tom Hawkins will go on next year with a new deal but the Cats will also play plus-30s Patrick Dangerfield (34 next April), Rhys Stanley (33 in December), Mark Blicavs (33 next March), Gary Rohan (32), Mitch Duncan (32), Cam Guthrie (31 in August), Tom Stewart (30) and Jeremy Cameron (30), with Jed Bews 30 in December.
The club doesn’t have a second, third or fourth-round pick but Esava Ratugolea will almost certainly request a trade which will help the club’s draft hand.
Clubs might have to give up a late first-rounder or early second-rounder given a potential bidding war with Essendon, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn all keen.
HAWKS ON HUNT
Hawthorn is on the hunt for a ready-made key defender at season’s end, but might have to find some more trade currency to make it happen.
Key defenders Ben McKay - a free agent - and Esava Ratugolea appear set to find new homes, but they have been strongly linked to Essendon and Port Adelaide respectively.
It is understood Hawks coach Sam Mitchell and the list management team have identified the need to find another key backman to assist the club’s future direction.
The Hawks would love to be able to find someone who could hopefully free up skipper James Sicily a bit more in defence.
Defender Denver Grainger-Barass, the club’s No. 6 draft from 2020, has struggled to cement a spot in defence and has played just six games this season - with only 26 in total in three seasons.
Grainger-Barass is contracted until the end of next season.
The Hawks have already given up second and third round picks for this season, but have the Bulldogs’ second round pick, which could secure father-son prospect Will McCabe, son of former Hawk and now footy director Luke McCabe.
The Hawks would be unwilling to give up its first pick in this year’s draft.
Chad Wingard is out of contract at season’s end with the Hawks yet to make a firm decision on his future.
The 30-year-old appeared set for a move next season but he has fought back with some solid form in recent weeks, kicking 7.3 from the past four matches.
PAY DEAL CLOSE
The AFL’s new pay deal is likely to be a five-year term, which will give clubs signing players like Nick Daicos on long-term extensions greater clarity on their salary cap.
Daicos will sign a four-year contract from 2025-2008 which the Herald Sun believes it worth $1.1 million a season, with scope to rise more under the new CBA.
Clubs like Collingwood attempting to sign up the Daicos brother are desperate for clarity over the long-term on what salary cap will be.
The league had initially asked for a nine-year deal in line with its TV rights through to 2035 but the AFL were asking for a four-year deal.
Industry sources with knowledge of the negotiations believe five years will be the likely tenure.
That deal would take in 2023 under a back-dated arrangement and the four years from 2024-27.
Clubs factored in a five per cent rise in the 2023 cap after being advised by the league but the salary cap could rise significantly this year, handing players a back-dated pay rise.
TIPPA TO PLAY ON?
Essendon maintains it is keen to get Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti back into the AFL side before the end of the season, but a squeeze on list spots for next season means he is far from guaranteed his spot in 2024.
McDonald-Tipungwuti’s comeback was one of the AFL’s great storylines headed into this season, and his inspiring goal against Hawthorn in round 1 brought about one of the most emotional moments of the season.
But the Bombers small forward has played only six senior games this season off the back of injury and fitness concerns as well as nine games in the VFL.
He was one of Essendon’s emergencies for last week’s clash with Sydney with general manager of football Josh Mahoney suggesting he was getting close to a senior recall again.
McDonald-Tipungwuti, 30, has been working hard on building his fitness base in recent months as he works to try and regain a spot.
The Bombers are also hopeful Darcy Parish will follow Mason Redman’s lead and recommit to the club in the coming weeks, while other Bombers out of contract include Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Andrew Phillips and Nick Bryan.
Former skipper Dyson Heppell is keen to play on and his form in recent months has given him the best chance of playing on again in 2024.
BUDDY FLOW ON EFFECT
Sydney believes it has matured enough as a club to move on from the era of a million-dollar franchise player as it instead shores up its defence in the trade period.
The Swans have a history of attracting brilliant key forwards like Lance Franklin, Tony Lockett and Barry Hall on mega-bucks deals to help kick goals but also sell the club in a crowded Sydney market.
But with Franklin retiring the Swans’ No. 1 concern is instead securing West Coast key back Tom Barrass.
The AFL’s strong stance with the Aliir Aliir-Lachie Jones head knock is another reminder of the league’s changing attitudes on concussions as Paddy McCartin considers his future.
He will be guided by the same medical experts who told him he was no more risk of concussions than any other player as he prepares to make a decision on his future.
But it seems impossible to think the league would approve another comeback after his early-season concussion from minimal head contact.
So the Swans will go hard on Barrass to play alongside Tom McCartin, with Dane Rampe re-signed to 2025 but in the twilight of his career.
Top four draft pick Logan McDonald has kicked 25 goals in 15 games this year and had his best moments when Franklin was not in the side.
He kicked four goals in round 2 against Hawthorn and four goals against West Coast with Franklin out of the side.
So while he has had some quiet games he is only in his third year and has upside playing alongside Hayden McLean and Joel Amarty.
Sydney’s ruck picture is also uncertain with Peter Ladhams injured for much of the year and Tom Hickey uncontracted.
Sydney has strong interest in GWS swingman Harry Himmelberg, but he seems destined to remain at the Giants.
RUCK MERRY GO-ROUND
Port Adelaide will only offer Scott Lycett a one-year contract extension, which is likely to see him strongly consider rival clubs to attempt to secure a two-year deal.
It means Port Adelaide’s chase for Melbourne ruckman Brodie Grundy will only intensify in coming months.
The Herald Sun reported last month Grundy would be open to a move to a third club, with Port Adelaide again keen on the All Australian.
He made clear last year he was not interested in a move back home but clearly the picture has changed given Max Gawn’s ruck dominance at the Demons.
Lycett is coming off a five-year $650,000 free agency deal at the Power and turns 31 in September, an age where the Power are only prepared to hand out one-year deals.
He will be a critical part of the club’s finals push but is managing a meniscus issue that saw the Power play youngster Dante Visentini against the Crows.
St Kilda, North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney could all be in the market for ruckmen.
Todd Goldstein is still hopeful of a one-year extension at North Melbourne but is awaiting a Roos decision.
Hawthorn has Lloyd Meek and Ned Reeves but Max Lynch retired on Tuesday with concussion issues.
Richmond’s Ivan Soldo will also be a key player in the ruck merry-go-round given his return to the seniors while Toby Nankervis serves his three-week suspension.
NEW DEAL FOR DOG?
The Western Bulldogs’ determination to draft midfielders as well as 199cm father-son forward Jordan Croft could help Tim O’Brien’s quest for another one-year deal.
The Dogs will bring in top 15 pick Croft, the son of key defender Matthew, who will take time to develop.
They have drafted key back Jedd Busslinger and swingman Sam Darcy in recent seasons - and re-signed Ryan Gardner and Alex Keath.
So they are unlikely to bolster their defensive stocks, which means O’Brien could continue his football journey as valuable insurance at worst after a year playing seven games despite multiple hamstring issues.
Josh Bruce’s ACL tear came at the worst possible time, with a level of pessimism over his chances of playing on next year given he will be out for most of the year recovering.
EAGLE EXPECTED TO STAY
West Coast small forward Liam Ryan is expected to remain at the Eagles despite Hawthorn’s interest in the dynamic 26-year-old.
Ryan was in Melbourne in recent weeks having more surgery on his troublesome hamstring and caught up with young Hawk Tyler Brockman.
But while clubs would love to secure Ryan, he is contracted until 2024 and the strong feeling is the former Subiaco forward is better suited to remaining close to home in West Australia.
Brockman is keen to stay in Melbourne but has two young kids at only 20 years of age so there is a chance he might make the move back to Perth for family reasons.
MARKOV DELIGHT
Oleg Markov has worked his way into a position of power for a new one-year deal as one of the next Collingwood players to secure a fresh contract.
Markov nearly missed his chance at the Pies when their lack of ruck issues saw them overlook him as a summer rookie for Oscar Steene.
But an injury to Charlie Dean allowed the Pies another rookie spot, and now after strong form the Pies are keen to retain him next year.
The Pies also have a half back succession plan with Jakob Ryan playing excellent footy in the VFL as the No. 28 pick in the 2022 national draft.
DO STAY, DOEDEE
Adelaide remains confident of re-signing free agent Tom Doedee in the face of interest from Brisbane Lions.
Doedee is recovering from a second knee reconstruction which is likely to cap the scope of the deal due to the obvious risks associated with another unfortunate serious knee injury.
The Lions had been linked to Doedee due to the need to add another intercepting defender to partner Harris Andrews and much-improved stopper Jack Payne.
But the Crows are planning on keeping Doedee as the club closely monitors the defender’s recovery from his latest knee reco.
Carlton’s Mitch McGovern could emerge as a secondary target for Brisbane as a third defender but McGovern has enjoyed a strong second half of the season at Carlton.
McGovern is out of contract at season’s end and is looking at a considerable pay cut to stay at the Blues.
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