Moneyball: The latest AFL trade news from across the competition
The Suns’ hot start to 2025 has some great talent sitting on the sidelines, leaving rival clubs plotting to steal some young stars away from Damien Hardwick’s squad.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Tom De Koning would need only a front-ended contract at St Kilda and a slice of the player union’s new $35 million marketing fund to become the first player to earn a $2 million salary in any given season.
De Koning is wrestling with the decision of a lifetime as he ponders whether to accept a $1.7 million per year deal from St Kilda or stay on just over $1 million a season at the Blues.
The Herald Sun revealed last week that coach Ross Lyon had met De Koning over summer as he urged him to move to the Saints.
West Coast’s Harley Reid and Western Bulldogs forward Sam Darcy have both been raised as players who could one day crack that historic barrier.
But De Koning could go close or even earn that figure next year given two key factors.
The Saints have already front-ended some star contracts to “bank” salary cap room for future years, effectively paying a bigger slice of a player’s contract in early years before it diminishes in size over time.
St Kilda president Andrew Bassat made clear last month the club had already made use of those kinds of deals to create a war-chest for future years.
The AFLPA has also created a $7 million-per-season season marketing fund that will allow players to earn over $100,000 a season if they are willing to promote AFL brands.
About 80 players a season from the AFL and AFLW will share in those riches – $35 million over five seasons- but players of De Koning’s scope could cash in on six-figure sums every year.
So while De Koning would not earn an average of $2 million over the life of his deal unless there were triggers taking in the new pay deal from 2028, he could hit that figure next year.
St Kilda is still hoping De Koning makes the move to Moorabbin but would be aware rival clubs are also asking the question of the in-form ruckman.
Collingwood is one club which has inquired amid uncertainty about Darcy Cameron’s future but could not match the cash offered by St Kilda.
Players will now be wary about the details of front and back-ended contracts being disclosed given the pressure it puts on them when their salaries are revealed.
Ben McKay has accepted around $1.4 million in 2024 and $1.1 million in 2025 as part of a front-ended deal, even though his contract only averages around $800,000 and drops to around $400,000 in 2027-2029.
Nick Haynes’ was prepared to defer money to help the Giants stay in the flag window but was then due over $1 million in 2024.
Bassat made clear the front-ending of contracts had helped clear cap space last month.
He said the club was also only paying 95 per cent of the salary cap – which allowed the club to spend the money saved in future years.
“I think we will probably end up paying 95 per cent, rather than 105 per cent, or 100 per cent. Then you can carry that over,” Bassat said.
“You end up needing to pay 95 per cent, so everyone pays that minimum. But you do that by prepaying some players [front-ended deals], if that makes sense. That gives you some room in latter years.”
AFLPA boss Paul Marsh told the Herald Sun recently it was up to clubs to decide how to allocate the salary cap but believed players would soon be close to $2 million a year given the marketing fund.
“This is always a headline so the only barrier to the $2 million player is the way clubs structure their playing payments. We have an average salary now up around $500,000 with 850 players in the competition so we have a pretty sizeable player payment pool, it’s just the way clubs choose to distribute it.”
“I think this new marketing fund, probably we’re not far off. We’d love to see the players earning as much as they possibly can, because obviously, we’re up against the other sports and we’re competing with them for the top athletes in the country.”
“The fund is $35 million over the five years of a CBA and it’s designed to give the top players an opportunity to earn more but also do more to help promote the game.
“That was part of the sell to the AFL. It’s a good thing to get the players involved in game promotion stuff. The players don’t have to do it so it will come down to how many do it and if some decide they don’t want to do it, it might leave a whole lot more for others.”
PIES’ PITCH TO KEEP MAYNARD FROM NORTH REVEALED
Collingwood is prepared to hand Brayden Maynard a four-year deal on excellent money but at this stage is baulking at offering the premiership defender a five-year deal.
The Roos confirmed on Sunday they had some interest in a tough backline player like Maynard but football boss Todd Viney said they had not offered him a six-year deal yet.
Their offer is likely to be more financially lucrative than the Roos offer, but it remains to be seen if he would leave for only one more season of guaranteed money.
A four-year deal would see him playing on those terms until 32 given he turns 29 in September, and he could conceivably strike another deal after that contract expires.
What he has to weigh up is how much remaining a one-club Pie will be worth to him across his entire life given the sponsorship and marketing opportunities that come with remaining affiliated with the AFL power club.
EAGLES’ WIN-WIN SCENARIO ON ALLEN’S FUTURE
West Coast captain Oscar Allen would secure a longer tenure and more guaranteed money at Hawthorn or Brisbane as West Coast’s go-slow tactics ensure he tests the market in a week where he met Hawks coach Sam Mitchell.
Allen already has a strong friendship with Mitchell from his days as an assistant coach at West Coast and caught up with him at Tom Barrass’s recent wedding.
With Mitchell in Perth this week with wife Lyndall he met the Eagles captain and other players during his whistlestop tour across the Hawks bye.
But while Allen’s decision has been criticised, he does not yet have the long-term deal with guaranteed money that would see him keen to re-sign at the Eagles.
So he has been forced to meet with rivals including Mitchell to assess his options to set up his football and financial future.
West Coast is aware that if he left they might easily secure a top five draft pick as free agency compensation so they cannot lose either way.
Eagles CEO Don Pyke said it was news to him that Allen had met with Mitchell but admitted times have changed in the modern world of player movement and had no issues with it.
“I think we’re working in a world now that’s changed from times gone past,” Pyke said on SEN.
“I don’t think it’s unusual for clubs to meet with players and that is the case, then clearly we’ll keep talking with Oscar about his position at the club.”
Hawthorn and Brisbane are believed to be the two suitors with a chance to land him given they are both in the premiership mode.
Melbourne has less appeal while the Pies are also behind the Hawks and Lions in the chasing pack.
Allen would have seen teammate Tom Barrass move to Hawthorn where he has fitted seamlessly into their back six and enjoyed a 4-0 start to the season.
He was ordinary in the Western Derby against Fremantle and was one of five or six players suffering heat fatigue from the Brisbane game in extreme humidity the week before.
At one stage the Eagles were worried about some of those players flying back from Brisbane given their extreme dehydration.
So while his last two weeks of form has been poor, he is confident in his knee after getting through the full summer and all games apart from the pre-season clash he skipped for his brother’s wedding.
Clubs would put him through medicals to ensure his knee concern, which saw him miss a chunk of the 2024 season, would not fail him across a long-term deal of up to six years.
HAWKS HAVE DRAFT CAPITAL FOR REID
Hawthorn could effortlessly satisfy West Coast in a potential trade for Harley Reid as the Hawks emerge as a favourite for his services if he demands a trade.
The club’s extraordinary depth with as many as 30 players expecting to play senior football most weeks and their hold on Carlton’s 2025 first-rounder give them ammunition to launch a monster bid.
Essendon had put work into Reid going back to his draft year, building strong relationships with his family and even ensuring he played a VFL game as part of efforts to build ties with the brilliant Tongala midfielder.
He also has friendships within the club, but like St Kilda the Dons are realising that Hawthorn plays a mean game these days in recruiting players.
Sam Mitchell was in Perth this week speaking to Eagles captain Oscar Allen but did not again catch up with Reid after spending some of Barrass’s wedding night with the young star.
The likely two-year, $2.4-$2.5m deal that Chad Warner will likely sign at Sydney makes it harder for Reid to leave in contract given the Eagles would not be replacing him with a ready-made midfielder.
But there is recent precedent for what Reid might be worth if he did ask for a trade like fellow No. 1 overall pick Jason Horne-Francis.
The Power gave up what turned into picks eight, a future first, second and third-rounder plus picks 43, 53 and 57 for Horne-Francis and Willie Rioli.
Hawthorn entered the season aware it had massive depth but hoping to build its stocks of A-grade players to compete with premiership rivals.
Already Nick Watson and Josh Battle have made that jump while Lloyd Meek is a top three AFL ruckman.
Securing Reid even at an astonishing cost would boost their future A grade stocks even if it cost them multiple first rounders and some depth players.
Hawthorn has the Carlton first-rounder (which could be a top 10 pick), their future first-rounder and an array of depth players who could be thrown into any selection.
Clubs can also trade picks two years into the future but the 2027 first-rounders will be devalued by Tasmania’s inclusion.
Hawthorn has as many as 10 players not in their team against GWS who are either injured or would consider themselves stiff to miss out every week.
They include rucks Ned Reeves and Max Ramsden, full back Sam Frost, suspended defender Jack Scrimshaw, injured mid James Worpel, injured half forward Connor Macdonald, first-round key tall Will McCabe, injured utility Sam Butler, injured full back James Blanck and inside mid Henry Husthwaite.
Frost can’t get a game and Scrimshaw was a revelation last year but is playing a different role this year given the recruitment of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle.
PIES COACH PUSHES FOR MID-SEASON TRADE PERIOD
Collingwood coach Craig McRae would love to see the AFL adopt a mid-season trade period.
McRae believes an added layer of movement between the clubs in the middle of the season could revitalise opportunities for sidelined players while also bringing a level of added off-field interest for fans.
“I think the game can actually grow even further to have mid-season trading … I think the game needs to have (that) excitement,” McRae said.
“I got criticised (last year) when we had no rucks and they (the media) thought it was about that. But it is about the game. It gives layers of excitement.
“We will get to mid-season this year and it would be like ‘what about this guy? (who can’t get a game with his side)’.
“I think there is a lot of upside and positivity in that (mid-season trading). For every opportunity there is for bigger clubs to gain – which there’s an argument against (mid-season trading) – there are also players who are not getting an opportunity.
“We may give up more than what that player is valued at because we see opportunity now and others might not.”
The AFL considered introducing a mid-season trade window in 2025, but temporarily parked the suggestion for this year amid some concerns about reckless trading and the potential for the ladder to become more lopsided in the second half of seasons.
SUN ON RADAR OF RIVALS
Unloved Gold Coast forward Malcolm Rosas Jr. is already back on the radar of rival clubs after being shut-out of selection to start the season.
The 45-game forward was given permission to look elsewhere during the last trade period after playing just seven AFL games in 2024 and while clubs did register interest, he decided to see out the last year of his contract at the Suns and remains committed to winning a spot in Damien Hardwick’s team.
Those same clubs have kept close tabs on the speedy small forward and multiple teams have flagged they remain keen on Rosas Jr.
The 23-year-old could fill a growing need for speed in the front half on several playing lists, with a handful of clubs such as Sydney, Carlton and Melbourne desperate for more leg speed in the forward 50.
Rosas Jr has kicked 45 goals in his 45 games and kicked multiple goals in five of his seven senior matches last year.
A host of Suns with senior experience played in a narrow VFL loss to Casey Demons on Saturday, including Alex Davies, Ned Moyle, Thomas Berry and Sean Lemmens.
AFL HOPEFUL OF INDIGENOUS BOOST
The AFL is desperately hoping a quartet of Indigenous players come on across the 2025 national championships given their desire to boost the number of players on lists.
But at this stage there are only a handful of quality indigenous prospects and none at the top end of the draft in a season where there are only 63 indigenous players on lists.
Wes Walley is a West Coast NGA prospect alongside Koby Evans, while small forward Harley Hicks is linked to the Dogs as an NGA prospect.
Jack Ison is a 190cm mid who is linked to the Blues as an Oakleigh Chargers prospect but the June national championships will help decide if those players are draft eligible.
Walley plays for Subiaco and is in the state academy, basing his game off Charlie Cameron and Cyril Rioli.
Last year was close to no new Indigenous players until Malakai Champion (West Coast) and Ricky Mentha (Melbourne) were put onto lists as category B rookies.
As the league invests more money into Indigenous pathways and boosts more money into indigenous academies, the money will take time to boost prospects.
Originally published as Moneyball: The latest AFL trade news from across the competition
R4 tips: The one expert who believes Blues won’t be 0-4
You could easily argue season 2025 is on the line for Carlton against the Pies on Thursday night. Our experts say, this season could be cooked. But there’s one believer!
SuperCoach rookie radar: Who to sell, buy this week
Which SuperCoach cheapies are must-haves ahead of round 4 and who can you afford to trade out? Our experts have their say on the rookie moves you should be making this week.