Mick McGuane: Six AFL sides which have improved, slid, are a worry or are a complete disaster
A month into the 2025 AFL season, some clear patterns are beginning to emerge. Mick McGuane names his biggest improver, biggest slider, the side he’s worried about and the ‘unmitigated disaster’.
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The first month of footy in 2025 is in the bag and some things are becoming clear.
Footy analyst Mick McGuane has handed out some early awards to the teams who have impressed him in the first four weeks – and those who have made disaster starts.
THE BEST – BRISBANE LIONS
There’s been no premiership hangover for the reigning premiers so far, who I have alongside Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney as leading contenders to win this year’s flag.
A 4-0 start to the year — which has included wins over 2024 top-four sides Sydney and Geelong — has Chris Fagan’s side humming and their slick ball movement remains a significant point of difference.
Brisbane ranks No. 2 for moving the ball from halfback to inside-50, helped by players like Dayne Zorko, Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale who are so sure with their decision making and execution.
The Lions play the game at high-octane speed when they have possession of the footy and change angles rather than trying to advance the ground in straight lines.
That shifts opposition defences and is one of the reasons why Brisbane remains a highly-efficient team going forward despite the retirement of Joe Daniher.
Zac Bailey (nine goals) is currently the side’s leading goalkicker, which I’m not sure is sustainable.
But there are no shortage of avenues to goal and the likes of Charlie Cameron (four goals) and Cam Rayner (one goal) have more to give.
Add in a midfield group which ranks No. 1 for clearance differential — fuelling their territory game — and this remains a side with few weaknesses.
Having made a slow 2-5 start to last season, the Lions are much better placed already and have a chance to knock off another 2024 finalist in the Western Bulldogs this weekend.
THE MOST IMPROVED – ADELAIDE
It was a toss-up between Gold Coast and Adelaide on who won this early-season award, but I’ve loved the growth of the Crows.
I wrote in February that Riley Thilthorpe was a “smokey to win the Coleman Medal” and he currently sits equal-first on the leaderboard alongside Nick Larkey.
The 201cm big man has been a pivotal part of a forward line which has piled on the goals in the early rounds, with Adelaide averaging 125 points across its first four games.
Thilthorpe (14 goals) has teamed up beautifully with Darcy Fogarty (12 goals) and Taylor Walker (10 goals) to form a three-tall attack which gives the Crows a clear point of difference and threatens any opposition which does not place a high premium on defence.
Adelaide’s goalkicking accuracy ranks No. 2 in the competition and the Crows are also blessed with quality kicks in other parts of the ground.
Rory Laird, Mitchell Hinge and Josh Worrell are all good kicks in the back half, while Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine are neat ball users and decision makers through the middle.
The Crows rank No. 1 for scores from turnovers and No. 3 for moving the ball from their defensive half to inside-50, with that counterpunch ability the reason why I rate them so highly right now.
Yes, they have defeated teams that missed finals last year in St Kilda, Essendon and North Melbourne.
But they could have — and perhaps should have — knocked off Gold Coast away from home last week and there is plenty of reason for optimism going forward.
This Thursday night will be a big test against Geelong, though.
As much as you want to attack the game and score freely, can the Crows limit Geelong’s time in possession and take away the Cats’ uncontested marks? It’s a watch.
THE ‘DON’T BE WORRIED ABOUT’ – SYDNEY
They’re 2-2, but I’m not worried about the Swans one bit.
This is a team that remains defensively sound and I’ve got no doubt they will get their offensive mojo back when some of their cavalry return.
Sydney ranks No. 3 for scores per inside-50 against and No. 5 for stopping its opposition from transitioning from defensive 50 to inside-50.
That is a great defensive foundation in anyone’s book.
Key forward Logan McDonald is ready to return — maybe another week away — after having a run in the VFL last week, while Lewis Melican’s return to defence will also provide a boost.
Callum Mills — unseen since last year’s qualifying final — is important across halfback or through the midfield and is closing in on a comeback from a foot injury, while Tom Papley (foot) and Errol Gulden (ankle) will be welcomed back with open arms in the middle part of the season.
Sydney’s two losses so far have come against very good teams in Hawthorn (20 points) and Brisbane Lions (four points) and they looked a top-four side with their centre-forward game against North Melbourne last week.
I loved Riley Bice’s performance in that match, with the former VFL star being a lovely left-foot kick who makes elite decisions and puts the footy to the advantage of teammates further afield.
The Swans will build as the season goes on and have a prime opportunity to continue their momentum on Friday night against another side vying for a top-four spot.
Collingwood is vulnerable, missing three key players across three areas of the ground in Dan Houston, Jordan De Goey and Lachie Schultz.
THE WORST – MELBOURNE
It doesn’t get much worse for the Demons.
Both in defence and attack, they are an unmitigated disaster.
You would think a team with Steven May, Jake Lever (now set to miss six to eight weeks with an ankle), Harrison Petty, Tom McDonald and Christian Salem and Jake Bowey in the backline would at least be able to stop its opposition from scoring.
All six were premiership players in 2021 — albeit McDonald played as a forward in the flag.
In that successful season, Melbourne conceded an average of 64 points against per game.
So far this year they are coughing up an average of 102 points against and are ranked 18th for points against from turnovers.
That’s a horrible defensive profile, and yes, they are worse than West Coast.
As much as we on the outer call on clubs to add some speed on the ball at times, the Demons’ intent to transition the footy more quickly this season is coming back to haunt them because of their inability to defend turnovers.
They remind me of Hawthorn’s first five games of 2024, and we all know what that looked liked — a 0-5 start to their campaign.
Melbourne is also the fourth-worst side in the competition at defending opposition transition from defensive 50 to inside-50.
Offensively, the picture isn’t any more pretty.
Who are Melbourne’s quality ball users? There’s not many.
One of them is Christian Petracca, who has been plonked in attack to be their most dangerous forward.
The Dees are delusional if they think that is the solution to their problems and Petracca, who has great passion for winning and a will to compete, is clearly frustrated.
It’s time for Bayley Fristch to step up or get dropped, after 1.7 across his first four matches.
He’s not employing a team-first approach and might need a spell in the seconds to wake him up.
I’d also get Kysaiah Pickett back closer to goal, where he does his best work with his speed, pressure and goalkicking nous.
So far, the unheralded Kade Chandler has been one of few shining lights in a horror start to 2025.
THE BIGGEST DECLINER – CARLTON
I didn’t have the Blues in my top-eight entering this year, but I’ve still been surprised at how indifferent they’ve been in certain aspects of their game.
The conclusion I’ve come to is that this list is not good enough.
If it was better, Sam Docherty wouldn’t be getting a game.
The same could be said about Mitch McGovern and Zac Williams, who haven’t committed to winning enough crucial contests at important stages of the game.
Nick Haynes has also been off the pace and his turnovers have been incredibly costly.
There’s a clear lack of integrity at selection, as it’s not currently aligning itself to coach Michael Voss philosophy of being a strong contested ball winning team.
Also, a quality and consistent small forward is yet to emerge.
Does anyone know what you are going to get from Williams, Jesse Motlop or Corey Durdin on any given week?
Add in Harry McKay and Elijah Hollands both missing early-season games due to personal reasons and it is little wonder that the Blues have dropped from ranking No. 2 for scores per inside-50 in 2024 to ranking No. 18 in 2025.
Carlton has tried to get more speed on the game this season with ball in hand, but it doesn’t have the good kickers or decision makers to do that and mistakes are then fuelling the opposition’s turnover game.
Sam Walsh wins a lot of the footy as the outside runner in the midfield but doesn’t hit targets as often as he should and has recorded a kicking efficiency of 57.8 per cent this season.
In fact, as a team the Blues have the lowest kicking efficiency of any side in the AFL.
A combination of poor execution, wrong method, taking the wrong options, not kicking to the advantage teammates and not lowering their eyes going forward is hurting badly.
Playing West Coast this week could be the circuit-breaker they need, especially with Jeremy McGovern missing from an undersized Eagles’ defence.
Carlton must go for the easy kill.
If the unthinkable happens and it loses this one, it won’t be good for Voss and the pressure around his coaching tenure will quickly mount.
THE ONE TO BE WORRIED ABOUT – PORT ADELAIDE
Across most of the past five years, the Power have been a consistently strong performer in five key areas.
They have put a high premium on contest, clearance, winning territory, being efficient going inside-50 and then defending the ground by coming in behind their attack aggressively after winning territory.
After four games this year, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to give them a tick in any of those five areas.
They have shown glimpses but are nowhere near their consistency of previous years.
Port is a team which ranked No. 4 for clearance differential last year but is ranked fourth-last this season.
With the likes of Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Connor Rozee, Willem Drew and Zak Butters — who all play as onballers — that is a significant drop off and they must be held to account.
It’s just not good enough!
When it comes to contested possession differential, they are third-last and so far this year and they can’t defend, either.
Across the final eight rounds of 2024, Port was the No. 1 team for scores per inside-50 against but currently sit 14th in that category.
There have been changes to the side and injuries which haven’t helped.
Butters is Port’s spiritual leader but missed the first three weeks, while the absences of key forwards Jack Lukosius and Todd Marshall and defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher haven’t been ideal either.
The Power have also tried to make some subtle changes with their ball movement amid all of this.
But it’s time to strip it back and get back to what have traditionally been their strengths — contest wins, controlling stoppages and gaining territory advantage.
There is no excuse for losing clearances by nine against St Kilda last week and being outscored by 43 points from stoppages.
That was the difference in a 17-point game.
I don’t subscribe to the succession plan being a reason as to why Port Adelaide has lost its way.
But unless they can get back to their strengths, the questions will keep coming.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Six AFL sides which have improved, slid, are a worry or are a complete disaster
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