Mick McGuane: In-depth analysis of Richmond and how the Tigers can hit back this season
Plenty in the football world have given up on Richmond. But not Mick McGuane. This is why he isn’t writing off the Tigers just yet.
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There were high hopes that Richmond would return to premiership contention this year.
But the Tigers find themselves 16th on the ladder with just one win and one draw entering Round 8.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at what has gone wrong for Damien Hardwick’s side, the positional moves that he would make and why he is not writing off Richmond just yet.
The Tigers might not make the top-eight, but they will certainly shape it.
FORWARD FRUSTRATIONS
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick was a frustrated man after last week’s loss to Gold Coast – and it’s easy to understand wonder why.
As Hardwick put it when asked where the game was won and lost: “We couldn’t capitalise inside 50”.
The frustration about the Tigers is that — for the most part — their game style is stacking up.
However, the ball use going forward and their goalkicking efforts have left a lot to be desired.
The biggest issues right now centre on skill errors and poor decisions in the front half, which are a major reason why their turnover game has dropped away.
The Tigers are creating ample forward half intercepts but their ability to punish the opposition on the scoreboard is not where it should be.
Across the six seasons from 2017 to 2022, Richmond ranked No. 1 for points from turnovers, scoring an average of 57.2 points per game from the scoring source.
This year, they rank 17th and are scoring just 39.6 points a game from turnovers.
When you consider that four of the Tigers’ past five losses have come by 24 points of less, that drop off is significant.
This is a team that has long been a leader of the pack when it comes to the turnover game.
As it stands, they are a side that is disconnected and are lacking precision in their ability to punish opposition teams on turnover.
Goalkicking woes aren’t helping, either, with Richmond’s shot at goal accuracy over the past three weeks sitting at 39 per cent – ranking it 18th in the competition.
That is contributing to an average overall score of 71.9 points a game, which is not going to get you too many wins the way footy is being played this year.
Yes, they are missing their most important player in injured key forward Tom Lynch.
However, there are other issues at play as well.
MONEY KICK TROUBLES
Supply to the forward line has not been an issue for the Tigers this year.
They are averaging 53.6 inside-50s a game and sit ninth in the competition for time in forward half.
But the kicks going inside-50 – also known as the ‘money kick’ – have been letting them down.
On average across the AFL, 47 per cent of kicks inside 50 are retained by the attacking team.
Richmond’s most prolific kick inside-50 player is Shai Bolton, who has had 34 inside 50 kicks for a retention rate of 47 per cent.
Among the rest of the Tigers’ top-five players to have kicked the ball inside 50 this year, Tim Taranto has a retention rate of 35 per cent, Jacob Hopper and Marlon Pickett are both operating at 33 per cent and even Dustin Martin is going at a disappointing 32 per cent.
Those are sub-par numbers from players we all except more from.
A combination of skill errors and poor decisions when going inside 50 are clearly frustrating coaches, teammates and fans.
A huge emphasis must be put on ensuring better ball security going forward — or at the very least kicking to a teammate’s advantage.
Too often, Tigers players are either blazing away or are picking the wrong leading options in an area of the ground where they can’t afford to give the ball up easily.
If I was a Richmond player whose ball use going inside 50 was hurting the team, I’d be working overtime on the training track to help eradicate the mistakes I was making.
Pride in one’s ball use definitely matters.
BE BRAVE AND CHANGE THE ATTACK
After five straight losses, it is time to try something different.
Knowing the forward line is a key problem, Richmond needs to change it up.
Last week against Gold Coast, the Tigers lost the forward 50 contested ball count by 19.
In fact, Richmond has only won that stat once from seven games this season.
When the ball is getting in there, players are not working hard enough to win crucial 50-50 contests or retain the footy inside 50 through ground ball wins, pressure and tackling.
Martin has spent 96 per cent of his time as a forward this year, yet has laid just two tackles inside forward 50 and has kicked only four goals from six games.
He has been serviceable but is being wasted as a permanent forward and must get back around the ball in a time of need for his side.
Dimma, it’s time to let the champ loose.
Taranto has been Richmond’s leading disposal winner through the midfield this year, but has also shown in his career that he can be a capable goalkicking forward and is an elite pressure player.
Hardwick must switch Martin to the midfield and Taranto to the forward line, in the view that they could rotate just as Martin and former Tiger Kane Lambert used to.
It could be a win-win.
Liam Baker’s fierce attack on the ball and pressure game is also needed in the forward half.
He has spent 83 per cent of his game time in defence this year but needs to be swung to the other end of the ground.
Rhyan Mansell is the other player that must be challenged to bring some much-needed heat and energy to the forward line.
After being dropped, he took his medicine and kicked three goals in the VFL last weekend, while also laying five tackles.
I wouldn’t hesitate in bringing him back into the senior team.
RETURN THE SWARM
Richmond’s pressure on the opposition ball carrier isn’t as good or as manic as it used to be.
At their best, the Tigers hunted in numbers to create turnovers.
One player would be right up in the face of the opposition player with the ball, while another two three or four players would be coming from different angles to box in that ball carrier.
That disciplined second ring helps shut down the opposition’s options to move the ball.
However, I’m not seeing enough of that from the Tigers this year, who have not been as sharp with their pressure as they should be.
For their game to be strong, that swarm must return – and it must be this week against the Eagles.
AFL footy is an effort-based game and it’s about the work you do without the ball.
There is method behind it and unfortunately for Richmond that’s what’s fundamentally breaking down across the ground far too regularly this season.
WERE THE WRONG LEVERS PULLED?
Much has been made of the off-season recruitments of Taranto and Hopper on the back of Richmond’s sluggish start to the year.
But I’m not buying into talk that they were the wrong decisions.
The midfield was an area the Tigers have struggled in and the recruitments have added depth to an otherwise ageing group of players.
Hopper was clearly underdone at the start of the season, but has significantly improved his output over the past three weeks, as I expected him to do.
We’ll see the best of him in the next four or six weeks as he continues to build match hardness and fitness.
You can’t question Taranto’s attitude to compete or to prepare.
He’s one of the fittest players at Richmond, but he must challenge himself to improve his ball use.
Taranto’s kicking efficiency sits at only 47.6 per cent this year, which rates poor among the competition’s midfielders.
Yes, he is often under more pressure and fatigue than others, given where he plays and the gut running that he does.
However, the Tigers desperately need him to become an elite distributor in time, especially when he finds himself in space.
Most people, including myself, were tipping Richmond to finish in the top-eight — if not top-four — before the season on the back of their new recruits.
What they didn’t bank on was the injury toll that the club has suffered to other key players early in the year.
DON’T WRITE THEM OFF YET
They have lost five games on the trot, but I’m optimistic about Richmond getting on a run — starting this week against West Coast.
Momentum is a wonderful thing and the Tigers might just be able to rediscover their mojo against the struggling Eagles at the MCG in a game that also gives them an opportunity to address some areas of concern.
This week’s theme should be all about ball security and winning contested ball in all areas of the ground, especially in the forward 50.
Richmond must ensure its midfield better connects with its forward line.
It starts by using the ball well and making better decisions and in doing so their scoring efficiency will improve immediately.
If they can do all of that against West Coast, it will go a long way to boosting morale, will help generate positivity and go a long way in bringing back some much needed belief to the group.
The Tigers’ next four games — against West Coast, Geelong, Essendon and Port Adelaide — are all at their beloved MCG.
If they can manufacture a big circuit-breaking win against the Eagles, it could be looked back on as a turning point in their season.
I’m not prepared to give up on the Tigers just yet.
Funny things can happen in this great game.
‘SAY IT TO MY FACE’: FIRED-UP HARDWICK LAUNCHES AT CRITICS
— Chris Cavanagh
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick has leapt to the defence of his club amid a sluggish start to the season and has hit back at critics who have suggested he should consider moving on.
In his 13th season at Punt Rd, the Tigers sit 16th on the ladder with just one win and a draw from the opening seven rounds.
Port Adelaide great Kane Cornes said on Wednesday that Richmond needed to “freshen up” its coaching department, adding that putting “a succession plan in place is worth doing”.
However, Hardwick said that while he was “incredibly flat and frustrated” about his side’s current predicament, he was up for the challenge of turning things around.
Asked about claims he had lost the players, Hardwick fired back.
“It’s their narratives,” he said.
“That’s the reality, it’s easy to sit there and say those comments when they’re sitting behind a desk – come and say it to my face.”
Hardwick said his side had to start stringing together some wins if it wanted to avoid the spotlight and talk of things like succession plans.
“I’m excited about being here at Richmond, providing the job that I’m doing,” Hardwick said.
“Narratives are part of the AFL landscape and we understand that. Where we are on the ladder probably opens us up to that, but the fact of the matter is to change the narrative, we’ve got to win some games.”
AFL analyst Mick McGuane said that any suggestion Hardwick move on was unwarranted.
“I feel like he’s invested and I see no reason why he won’t see out his tenure,” McGuane said.
“He’s been the most successful coach of the past six or seven years. Good coaches are hard to find and he’s had some challenges with injury in the early part of the season that haven’t helped.”
McGuane said while the Tigers might not make the top-eight, they will certainly shape it.
Below is McGuane’s in-depth look at what has gone wrong for Hardwick’s side, the positional moves that he would make and why he is not writing off Richmond just yet.
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