Mick McGuane: How Geelong can return to finals and who needs to lift to get there
Where has Geelong’s premiership defence slipped up, and can the Cats still make a back-to-back charge? Analyst Mick McGuane pulls apart the Cats’ biggest issues.
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Less than four weeks ago, Geelong coach Chris Scott labelled his team “the danger” as it looked primed to make a late-season charge.
Since then, the Cats have lost two of three matches and their “danger” is that they could miss finals for the first time since 2015.
But, like Scott, I’ve got plenty of faith in the reigning premiers turning their fortunes around.
Geelong still has the ability to turn it on and pile on goals in quick succession, which is why opposition sides remain very wary of them.
Here is what’s gone wrong, who needs to lift and how the Cats can get humming again – starting with a crunch clash against Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night.
WHY THE DROP OFF?
Geelong is still doing a lot right this year, but it has greatly missed some of the senior players who provide the polish.
Continuity and availability of your best players always plays a part in any campaign, and the Cats haven’t had that this season.
Only five Geelong players have featured in every game so far this season – Tom Hawkins, Mark Blicavs, Tom Atkins, Gryan Miers and Zach Guthrie.
Hawkins and Blicavs won’t be there this weekend and Hawkins came into the season clearly underdone after off-season foot surgery.
As much as you want to align your system to a “next man in” mentality, that only stretches so far.
Champion Data statistics show that the Cats have lost the fifth-most matches to injury among their best 22 players this year.
When your best players aren’t out on the park – or aren’t fully fit when they are – it takes a toll.
CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT
Some teams struggle with consistency week-to-week.
Geelong has struggled for consistency quarter-to-quarter this season.
The Cats have won 14 of 19 first quarters, which is the most of any team in the competition.
But somehow they have only nine wins and a draw to their name from those hot starts.
We know this team is capable – and they know it, too.
Just three weeks ago against Essendon, they booted seven goals to none in a period of less than 22 minutes during the first quarter.
However, during other matches this season they have been off the boil and battling to score.
Geelong needs to close that gap between its best and worst.
You can’t rely on 30 or 40 minutes of pure football to win games against the best teams in the competition.
NO MORE NICE GUYS
Enough of the niceties.
It is time the Cats got their claws out.
Where has their trademark “hardness at the contest” gone?
This is a team that surged to a premiership last season on the back of their ferocity around the ball, particularly through the midfield.
Geelong ranked top-six for both contested possession and clearance differential last season.
This season Scott’s side ranks 10th for contested possession differential and a lowly 14th for clearance differential.
They are the “pussy” Cats at the moment.
There is a strong correlation between the Cats winning games and them winning the contested possession count, so this has to change immediately against Port Adelaide.
TIME TO LIFT, SKIPPER
It has been a double-blow for Geelong’s midfield this year with the retirement of captain courageous Joel Selwood and the injury to their midfield general Cam Guthrie.
A joint winner of the Cats’ 2022 best-and-fairest award alongside Jeremy Cameron, Guthrie hasn’t played since round 6 due to a toe injury, and his absence shouldn’t be underestimated. Hopefully he returns against Collingwood in a week.
In a time of need, Geelong’s new captain this year Patrick Dangerfield must step up and deliver in this last month of footy if the Cats are serious about defending their crown.
Since his own injury issues mid-season, Dangerfield has increased his game time progressively over the past four weeks.
He played 70 per cent game time in the loss to Fremantle last week.
That has to jump above 80 per cent this week and Dangerfield needs to get back to his damaging and brutal best in an area of the ground that his side is struggling in.
JEZZA’S TIME TO SHINE
Since a dazzling first eight weeks of the season, Jeremy Cameron’s numbers have fallen.
He averaged 18.5 disposals, nine score involvements and 4.1 goals across the first two months.
Since round 9, he has averaged only 13.4 disposals, 6.2 score involvements and 1.2 goals.
However, I’m not as concerned about Cameron’s form as some.
Let’s not forget that he suffered a serious concussion against Melbourne in round 15.
He also had seven shots at goal against Fremantle last week but was unusually inaccurate as he managed just 1.5 from them.
Cameron knows that as a forward he has to convert those chances, and there were some shots last week he shouldn’t have missed.
After being cleared of injury following an unprovoked headbutting incident at a pub last weekend, there’s no doubt he’ll be working as hard as anyone to tackle the final month of the regular season head-on and rediscover his best form.
He is the Cats’ barometer and their point of difference.
GET CREATIVE, CHRIS
I’ve always felt that Scott is at his menacing best as a coach when his back is against the wall.
Great coaches find solutions to problems and he has shown the ability to do that time and again.
With two forced changes due to injuries to Hawkins and Blicavs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cats get creative and roll the dice at the selection table this week.
Given Hawkins has been the No.1 ranked player in the competition for forward-50 marks this year, his normal partner in crime in Cameron is going to need some help.
Esava Ratugolea has been playing in defence this year, but why not bring him back into the fold as a key forward and relief ruckman this week?
His athleticism and size would test Port Adelaide’s undersized defence, especially now that they will be without their best interceptor in Aliir Aliir.
A five-goal haul might be there for the reckoning, while this decision would also help free up Gary Rohan.
Blicavs is the Cats’ Mr Fix It and is irreplaceable with what he provides in a range of positions.
But on the back of some strong VFL form, Brandan Parfitt and Sam Menegola are sure to be considered and could bring some added hardness around the ball that Geelong is crying out for.
IT’S A BIG MONTH FOR …
Geelong has 13 players on its list who are over the age of 30.
That’s a lot and not all of them will still be on the list next year.
Five of those over-30s who are out of contract at season’s end are Rohan, Isaac Smith, Sam Menegola, Zach Tuohy and Rhys Stanley.
Menegola was injured for the first half of this year and has been stuck in the VFL since, but could get an opportunity to revive his career in the run home.
Smith still looks like he has some gas in the tank, while Rohan still has his speed and Tuohy is still playing a role.
Stanley’s ruck work has been solid, but he needs to provide more around the ground.
As experienced senior players, these five need to step up in the final month of the season if their team is to turn its fortunes around.
There might be some self-survival instincts in the back of their minds, but they must conform to team roles.
If they can contribute strongly at the tail end of the year, they might get another go.
If not, it might be curtains on the careers of a few of them.
KEYS TO SURGING PAST THE POWER
Contested ball and clearance wins are paramount for Geelong this week.
If the Power are allowed to dominate territory and get the ball into a dangerous forward line consisting of the likes of Charlie Dixon, Jeremy Finlayson, Todd Marshall and Sam Powell-Pepper, good luck.
Particularly at the skinny GMHBA Stadium, if you can win the territory battle it allows your defence to aggressively press up and lock the ball in your front half for repeat scoring opportunities.
The Cats’ defenders will also need to be strong in the air and take plenty of intercept marks.
That did not happen often enough when these two sides last met in round 14 and Port Adelaide was able to take 17 marks inside 50 to create ample scoring opportunities.
Another thing Geelong will need to do is find a nice balance with their ball movement between chaos and control.
The Cats won’t want to play the game at breakneck speed for four quarters against the Power.
If I were Scott, I’d be winding up Tom Atkins to do a job on Zak Butters through the midfield.
I’d also consider sending Mark O’Connor to run with Connor Rozee and go with him all the way.
When he spends time forward, Mitch Duncan can be the defender that gets released into the midfield.
THE RUN HOME
Geelong might sit ninth on the ladder now, but the opportunity is there to return to September if the Cats are good enough to take it.
If they can topple Port Adelaide this week, they would only need to win two of their remaining three games to make the finals cut.
Those are against Collingwood (MCG), St Kilda (Marvel Stadium) and Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium).
At their best, this is a side that is more than capable of winning against any team, anywhere, anytime.
If they don’t make it, they’ll shape it.
But I’m still tipping them to be there when the whips are cracking and a win this weekend is the perfect way to start.
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