How trade recruit Bailey Smith can edge Geelong closer to a premiership

Bailey Smith isn’t perfect, but he is just what the Cats need as they vie for a premiership. And they got him cheap as chips. See what his inclusion means and their possible round 1 side.

“So grateful to be apart (sic) of something special… now we work.”

That was the message from new Cat Bailey Smith on Instagram after his trade to Geelong went through, topped off with a ‘shh’ emoji for good measure.

There has been plenty said about the move this year – as expected for a player with 347,000 Instagram followers - but ‘Bazlenka’ certainly has the ability to create something special at the Cattery.

And as promised, the incredibly diligent preparer and trainer will put in the work.

It was yet another shrewd off-season move from the Cats.

Some will say they should have been ruthless and walked him to the pre-season or national draft, but why put Smith through that agony for a month when they are already getting him for a steal?

Geelong held the whip-hand as the Western Bulldogs faced the possibility of losing its pick seven from 2018 for nothing.

Pick 17 was Geelong’s bargaining chip and in the end all it took was a measly pick slide on top of that - from 38 to 45 – for the Cats to secure him in the dying minutes of the AFL trade period.

Bailey Smith was a top-10 pick back in 2018. Picture: Michael Klein

There are first rounders and then there are first-rounders.

That pick 17 the Cats gave up could slide back as far as 21 on draft night after bids for Brisbane father-son Levi Ashcroft, Essendon Next Generation Academy forward Isaac Kako, Gold Coast academy speedster Leo Lombard and potentially Lions Academy midfielder Sam Marshall.

The Cats traded out of an apparent super draft this year to nab Smith, but it is easy to forget he was part of a dubbed super draft himself in 2018.

Sam Walsh, Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine, the King twins and Connor Rozee were all called before Smith, and he may well have heard his name earlier had interstate clubs not been wary of the go-home factor.

Even in this strong draft, he was worth a late top-10 pick on pure talent - as the Bulldogs were angling for.

But the 23-year-old’s market value had decreased.

His anterior cruciate ligament rupture last December came at the worst possible time for the Bulldogs and it fell right into Geelong’s hands given the talent was out of sight, out of mind in 2024.

Bailey Smith was sidelined for the entire 2024 season. Picture: David Crosling

Smith’s role in the 2023 season also had a considerable impact.

After averaging 29 disposals per game in 2022 in just his fourth season, Smith was shunted out of the centre-square more often in 2023 as Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Adam Treloar and Jack Macrae occupied the engine room.

He spent 46 per cent of his time as a forward in the first 13 rounds of that season, which climbed to 79 per cent from rounds 14 to 17.

Ultimately the Bulldogs’ enviable midfield assets worked against them.

It will be a completely different story at Geelong where Smith will play significant on-ball minutes each and every week.

Geelong’s midfield remained heavily reliant on 34-year-old Patrick Dangerfield last season.

Dangerfield played just four games due to two hamstring setbacks in the first 14 rounds, and during that period the Cats ranked dead last in the competition for clearances.

They became a scoring force from stoppage later in the year when Dangerfield and surprise packet Tom Stewart were thrown into the mix – recording the second most points from clearances of all-time in the qualifying final - but the inclusion of the speedy Smith gives the Cats greater flexibility.

Stewart can spend the majority of his time in defence doing what he does best, the dangerous Dangerfield can rest forward more often.

Then there is Carji Greeves medallist Max Holmes, who showed dominant form both in the midfield and as a rebounding defender.

The Cats no longer have to worry about robbing Peter to pay Paul, and he can give the Cats an injection of speed off halfback where required.

Geelong’s starting midfield in round one this year was Dangerfield, Tanner Bruhn and Jhye Clark.

An on-ball brigade of Dangerfield, Holmes and Smith in round one, 2025 is much more ominous.

Add in luckless dual best-and-fairest winner Cam Guthrie, the improving Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes - another two first round talents secured from rival club – the grit of Tom Atkins and emerging youngster Jhye Clark and suddenly it is a midfield with depth.

In fact, it appears impossible to fit those handful of players in the same side if all of them are fit, with some difficult selection calls looming in 2025.

Tanner Bruhn and Bailey Smith will be midfield teammates in 2025. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

No wonder the Cats couldn’t find spots on their list for uncapped midfielder Mitch Hardie and premiership player Brandan Parfitt.

Sure, Smith isn’t perfect.

He has some well-documented struggles above the shoulders, was banned by the AFL for illicit drug use, and isn’t the best user by foot.

But Bazlenka’s blistering burst and ball-winning significantly bolsters Geelong’s midfield and gives the Cats an even better chance to contend not just in 2025, but into the future under Chris Scott.

And if there is any club that get the best out of him, it is Geelong.

Originally published as How trade recruit Bailey Smith can edge Geelong closer to a premiership