Experts say Port Adelaide would have beaten Adelaide had Saturday’s Round 2 Showdown gone ahead
The Showdown between Port Adelaide and Adelaide was meant to be played today, before COVID-19 halted the season. So we brought in four leading footy brains to determine a virtual winner.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
- AFL’s special projects cocooned from cuts
- How to get the most out of your Advertiser digital subscription
Who would have triumphed if the Showdown had gone ahead today?
The reality is we will never know after the AFL’s decision to shutdown the competition until at least May 31 amid the coronavirus pandemic.
But The Advertiser and Sunday Mail footy experts Mark Bickley, Graham Cornes, Dwayne Russell and Warren Tredrea, along with key statistics from Champion Data, help provide answers as to how the game may have been won and lost.
Port Adelaide would have entered the battle – its home game when it had originally planned to wear its famous prison-bar guernsey – off the back of a 47-point away success over Gold Coast in Round 1 and two pre-season victories over Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs.
For the Crows, the Showdown presented a chance to get off the mark in the Matthew Nicks era.
Adelaide fell to consecutive Marsh series defeats to Melbourne and the Suns, then lost its season-opener to Sydney by three points last Saturday.
So, with the Showdown ledger at 24-23 in the Crows’ favour, how would it have unfolded?
INS AND OUTS
Tom Doedee would have played for the Crows in the SANFL last weekend if there were matches in his return from his ACL injury and could have put his hand up for a return, while key forward Charlie Dixon would possibly have been available for Port.
Bickley: If he was available, maybe Doedee would come back in. They didn’t really have an intercept marking defender last week. Jake Kelly’s trying to play that role but he’s more of a stopper. Other than that, it’s part of the problem for Adelaide – it’s not like they have their five best players on the sidelines waiting to come back in. If Charlie Dixon comes back in for Port, that’s a bit of a headache for Adelaide because he’s been in pretty good form.
Cornes: They had to do something in defence so maybe (Kyle) Hartigan comes back.
PORT FORWARDS V CROWS DEFENDERS
Port loves to claim territory, lock the ball in its attacking half and dominate clearances. Despite finishing 10th on the ladder last season, it ranked first in the competition in four key categories: intercepts in its forward half, centre-clearance differential, overall clearance differential and time in forward half differential. The Power also outscored the Crows 34.2 points to 22.2 from stoppages in Showdowns in the past two years. The Crows’ defenders should be able to hold their own in the contest – Adelaide ranked third in the league last year for defensive one-on-one wins.
Bickley: I think the strongest part of the ground for Adelaide is their defence – they’d been most settled there with (Daniel) Talia, (Rory) Laird, (Luke) Brown and the like. Talia’s the man to handle Dixon. Then does Fischer McAsey play on Todd Marshall? That might work out all right. Jake Kelly gets (Mitch) Georgiades and he had his hands full last week with (Isaac) Heeney.
Cornes: I was disappointed in Adelaide’s defence (against Sydney). Their defence had a defensive mindset and there was no spontaneity or creativity from defence, which is where good teams have an advantage if their defenders attack strongly, carry the ball and penetrate. Brodie Smith has to go back to defence because he does provide genuine run. Without Charlie Dixon, Georgiades and Marshall did quite well (against Gold Coast). (Sam) Powell-Pepper was good and I think he sets the standard of competitiveness for them.
Russell: Charlie Dixon would’ve been back so Port Adelaide would’ve had even more firepower for Adelaide to stop, which would’ve been tough for them.
THE MIDFIELD BATTLE
Bickley: Last week the Crows’ rucks and on-ball department got a real touch-up, so they’re probably on the back foot a little bit. And, to be honest, they got touched up against Melbourne and, at best, broke even against the Gold Coast, so you feel like Port have got a bit of an advantage there. Nicks would have to back his midfielders again and try to get a response and Reilly O’Brien, he’d need to challenge him to get over the top of (Scott) Lycett.
Cornes: Their midfield got smashed (against Sydney), which was surprising because Reilly O’Brien’s been in good form and the midfield’s pretty good in close. Reilly O’Brien will be better. Port’s midfield is good.
Russell: I think at the top end it would’ve been fairly even. I can’t see why O’Brien couldn’t equal what Lycett’s output would be and the Crouch brothers are pretty impressive stars, so I think Adelaide might have done okay clearance-wise. But I think when Port start putting their second and third guys in the middle, Connor Rozee and Robbie Gray, that’s where Port Adelaide would win the clearance battle. If it’s not working for Port, they have more options to go to and change it in their favour. Eventually the dam would’ve broken for Adelaide in terms of how much class they’ve got to run through there.
Tredrea: Port’s got the superior midfield.
CROWS’ FORWARDS V PORT’S BACKLINE
Adelaide struggled to keep the ball close to goals last year. According to Champion Data, it was ranked in the competition’s bottom three for time in forward half differential, points from forward half intercepts and inside 50 differential. It was also 16th in pressure from general play. Adelaide would look to pounce on Port turnovers, having scored 55.8 points from Power mistakes in the past two years. Port scored 48.8 points from intercepts in those four clashes.
Bickley: I reckon Port’s defence is pretty settled at the moment and the Crows’ forward line hasn’t really fired, apart from the first quarter in Round 1. They haven’t moved the ball really efficiently (going forward), except for that one quarter. When you look at the Crows forward line with (Ben) Davis, (Tyson) Stengle, (Lachlan) Murphy, (Billy) Frampton and Chayce Jones in there as well, it’s an inexperienced forward line.
C ornes: If they can get they can get the ball into the forward line quickly enough, the forward set up isn’t too bad. Stengle and Murphy showed promise, Murphy particularly. He could be one of the elite small forwards in the competition. Port’s defence is good.
Tredrea: I don’t reckon they can score that well at the moment, Adelaide.
WHICH PLAYERS WOULD STAR?
Champion Data statistics unsurprisingly show five-time Showdown medallist Robbie Gray, who has snared the past three awards, averages 111 rankings points in games against the Crows over the past two years. He reached 104 rankings points versus the Suns and would be primed for another big performance.
Rory Sloane also averaged 111 points in Showdowns in 2018-19 and would be a good chance to carry his top form in again after a dominant display in the loss to Sydney with 18 disposals, nine clearances and seven tackles.
PREDICTION
Bickley: Port Adelaide win and they win reasonably comfortably … by 36 or 40 points. When you saw what Port Adelaide did to Gold Coast, they just shut them down. Their team defence was great and I think Adelaide would struggle to score. If Port Adelaide get their share out of the midfield and it’s proven so far this year they’ve been a bit more effective of connecting their midfield to a mark and shot on goal, inside forward 50, you feel like they’d have the answers at the moment. Port go in with confidence and feeling OK, and the Crows go in with a bit of self-doubt I reckon after three weeks of not really being able to play any sort of consistent footy.
Cornes: I think Port Adelaide would have smashed them. It was a Port Adelaide home game and (if crowds were allowed in) you’d have everyone up and around. They’re so motivated by their 150 years, the stadium would have been packed with black and white everywhere and the roof would’ve lifted with the rendition of Never Tear Us Apart. They’re just better balanced and more advanced at the moment. Their blend of youth and experience is exceptional and they’re playing better footy. Port Adelaide impressed me against Gold Coast and I do like their young players. With (Connor) Rozee and (Zak) Butters, they’ve got some genuine excitement.
Russell: I think Port by four goals. I think Port are batting a little deeper class-wise. Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma are all another year advanced. It looked to me like Port Adelaide had a good summer and that can lead to a let-down in Round 2 sometimes, but I couldn’t have seen the Crows beat them this weekend.
Tredrea: I reckon Port would win by three goals. I think Adelaide would have fought back – that’s why I only say three goals. Port’s also got more experience all over the ground, even their kids are more experienced. Their kids are ready to take on the comp, whereas Adelaide’s are a fair way away from that.
Originally published as Experts say Port Adelaide would have beaten Adelaide had Saturday’s Round 2 Showdown gone ahead
Marinoff masterclass leads Crows in Giant demolition
Ebony Marinoff continued her stunning form as the Crows dismantled the Giants, while North Melbourne’s brilliant season has continued with a big win over the Swans in Hobart.
Clubs in tight tusstle for Bombers’ pick 9
North Melbourne has made a play for Essendon’s pick 9 in an attempt to bring Dan Houston to the club, but JON RALPH reports another club is set to swoop as the Bombers brace for an early bid on Isaac Kako.