Nathan Buckley’s future could be decided by Collingwood’s clash with Brisbane this week
THERE always comes a game where the result could be a coach killer. For Collingwood and Nathan Buckley, it could be this week, writes Mark Robinson.
Mark Robinson
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THERE always comes a game where the result could be a coach killer.
For then Richmond coach Terry Wallace it was Round 4, 2009. His team lost to Melbourne, who would win just the one game in the first 13 Rounds.
Wallace survived for several more weeks, before departing at the start of June.
A torrid start to the season became unsaveable after that loss to the Demons, amid a fierce backlash from fans.
On Saturday night, Nathan Buckley’s Collingwood plays Brisbane at Gabba.
Who knows if this game will be the looked upon as the start of the end for the club’s favourite son.
It looks perilous from the outside, with injuries stacking up, a game plan not working and a loss to Carlton last week which, after one summer and seven games under Brendon Bolton, showed that the mechanics are working at one club and worryingly missing at the other.
Richmond won one game from nine under Wallace in his fifth season and, at present, Collingwood is two wins from seven under Buckley, who is in his fifth season
Will Eddie and the gang sack Buckley if the Pies lose?
The answer is no.
What Buckley can’t afford, however, is another defeat. God help him if it’s a blowout, a 60, 70, 80-point defeat to a team that has struggled with its identity.
Clearly, the Collingwood electorate is on edge. Another loss, a sapping loss, and fans will be wanting change, at the very least some answers.
Buckley was an extremely driven player and didn’t require mental prodding, perhaps he expects the same from his players and perhaps he’s wrong. 
Questions abound.
Can Buckley coach? At 8-3 to start the previous two seasons, the answer was yes. To fold, as he did in the past two seasons after the bye break, the answer was still yes because Buckley was given some grace.
Injuries hurt in both those seasons, and this one too, but for how long can injuries be used as an excuse?
Maybe the high performance department needs an overhaul more than the football department.
The fact is - and even if you give Buckley the injury excuse - if Buckley’s coaching career ended this week, his tenure would be viewed as a failure.
What is it with the favourite sons? Buckley is struggling, James Hird is gone and Michael Voss was punted. Clubs won’t be seduced again by superstar players who have not coached, or been in a system for several years.
When a team falters as Collingwood is doing, the generalities start with a simple question: Has the coach lost the players?
In this regard, that hasn’t happened.
Results tell us it didn’t happen to Wallace, either. After the Melbourne loss, they beat North Melbourne by 36 points and then lost to Sydney (19 points), Brisbane (26 points), Port Adelaide (three points) and Essendon (40 points). They beat Fremantle by three points, Wallace resigned, and then coached his final game against the Dogs and lost by 68 points.
The Pies were walloped by Sydney in Round 1, worked a miracle to beat Richmond, lost by 29 to St Kilda, were walloped by Melbourne, smashed Essendon, were walloped by West Coast and then embarrassed by Carlton last week. It is ordinary reading.
Still, the Pies show fight. Champion Data this week supplied ladders for tackles, smothers and pressure acts and a combined ladder for all three categories.
After seven rounds, Collingwood sits third, which will surprise many.
North Melbourne is fourth, Geelong is second and, perhaps a surprise again, Fremantle tops the ladder.
So while effort and intent and strong defensive instincts are important, the numbers indicate that without a successful game plan, the defensive stuff doesn’t guarantee anything.
The game plan is of Buckley’s doing and we have all been told the Pies are opened up through the middle and are tearaway leaders in having inside 50 marks taken against them, among several other issues.
The upshot is they’re playing for him, which is a tick, but they’re not playing to his game plan or can’t play to his game plan.
Internally, the Pies say they aren’t worried.
Surely, that is the party line because they should be.
From 2012, Buckley and the club have undergone a list/culture transition and after five years, his team is 14th on the ladder. It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
His immediate past record is poor.
He has won four games from the past 18 matches. To put that into perspective, Mark Neeld won three games from his last 18 matches, Voss eight, Guy McKenna eight from 18, Mark Harvey six from 18, Brendan McCartney five, Matthew Primus five and Scott Watters four. All of those coaches were sacked.
The last time we heard from Collingwood chief executive Gary Pert, he said finals this year was still the expectation.
Positive outlooks are important, but in this case there’s a canyon between expectation and reality.
The top brass, led by Eddie McGuire, have offered injuries as an excuse, and that’s fair enough, but Buckley won’t hear of excuses.
He said on AFL360 during the week he will be judged on win-loss and put it on the available players to lift.
What else can he say? Offer excuses so the players have an out? Of course he can’t. He needs to build resilience, not encourage mental cop outs.
He is an intriguing football person, Buckley.
He speaks with authority, is clinical and matter-of-fact and you wonder if he speaks to the players the same way behind closed doors.
Premiership captain Nick Maxwell said recently Buckley wasn’t so much a motivator and Buckley largely agreed, believing the players had a responsibility to self-motivate.
Buckley was an extremely driven player and didn’t require mental prodding, perhaps he expects the same from his players and perhaps he’s wrong to think he will automatically get that from his players. It’s just a theory.
Collingwood is at flashpoint.
The scenario is bleak: Backs to the wall, on the road, president under stress, coach under pressure, club under siege.
The Pies say the noise about Buckley’s future is just that “noise” and they absolutely believe he will coach until the end of 2017 at least.
But football can’t be so black and white.
What happens if the season continues to stumble and the Pies are 4-10 or 5-13 or finish 7-15, even when the injury list shrinks.
It would be a brave club, or a stubborn club, not to think they have serious issues.
McGuire said he would sack Buckley if he had to and while people have said it was a throwaway line from a man beating his chest, the truth is McGuire might have to consider that very scenario at the end of the season. Maybe not sacking, but an agreement between both parties.
That would make it interesting. Paul Roos would be available and even though he has said he’s no chance to coach again, remember he said the same to Melbourne before agreeing to coach for three years.
If it goes pear-shaped, what’s stopping Collingwood dangling $2 million a season in front of Roos and begging hard.
We’re jumping ahead, but it’s a scenario that might have to be considered.
Right now, the club’s faith in Buckley is strong despite the humbling loss to Carlton. Another loss on Saturday, though, and we might remember it as the game that was the start of the end.
FIVE THINGS I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO
1. NEW RIVALRIES. Surging Melbourne versus the high intensity Dogs and the best part is the Demons fans believe they can win. What a turnaround. If they do win, finals is big possibility.
2. LIONS RESPONSE. They have a chance to kick Collingwood while they are down. We know it’s not beyond them ... depending on which Brisbane decides to turn up. The highly passionate or the frustratingly meek?
3. SOME FIGHT. The Suns and Tigers have the Giants and Swans. They loom as terrible beatings. Let’s hope not. If they get within five goals it will be a terrific effort.
4. BLUES ON A ROLL. That’s three in a row and a win on Sunday could well have Brendon Bolton vying for coach of the year to date. The problem is Port has found it’s mojo, albeit against teams in the bottom.
5. PINK LADIES. Sad and inspiring at the same time and one of the special nights on the AFL calendar. If you have a spare twenty, do drop it in the buckets.
Originally published as Nathan Buckley’s future could be decided by Collingwood’s clash with Brisbane this week
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