AFL Indicative Draft Order: Craig Kelly’s warning on proposed solution to go-home factor
Some AFL clubs are pushing for three-year contracts for draftees to stop them walking out to return home early in their career. But there could be a major problem with that idea.
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Pioneering player manager Craig Kelly says mandatory three-year contracts for first-year draftees would be a restraint of trade that would not solve the problem of early player departures.
The AFL’s two expansion clubs have urged the league to act to help solve the doom loop that sees them battling to retain star players determined to return to heartland clubs.
They are also keen to have three-year deals locked in with responsible pay rises to stop the rapid escalation of salaries that can see third-year players demanding $450,000 to re-sign.
But Kelly said clubs had to ensure they created stable and successful cultures that players wanted to be part of long after their initial two-year contract.
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The 1990 premiership defender built Elite Sports Properties into one of footy’s most dominant player management firms. The company is now labelled TLA and boasting many of the game’s biggest stars.
“The reality is the player movement space is balanced quite well,” Kelly said.
“I think there are enough restraints around the industry in a broad sense that everyone should want some level of free movement of trade. We should want it to be as early and fluid as possible without being what it is in American sports.
“The reality is the minute a player goes early in the draft the club is asking whether you want to extend their contract. If they love where they are, the player will mostly do it. (Jason Horne-Francis) didn’t, and probably rightly so.
“Most clubs have players staying for between two to four years and at that point depending on the salary cap, discussions (around another extension) happen. But taking the North Melbourne situation (with Horne-Francis) in isolation would be the wrong thing to do.
“The reality is there were a lot of other factors in that situation. There are enough other restraints around, so sometimes if a kid wants to go home, you let him go home.’’
Kelly said the most significant trend of recent seasons was the rise of pre-agency which saw players either traded or handed significant long-term deals after seven seasons, 12 months before they hit free agency.
Carlton’s Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay have just signed six-year extensions on deals expiring at the end of 2023, highlighting the power of pre-agency.
The AFLPA is open to a meaningful conversation around longer initial contracts, but would be wary about the details of any new rules.
If there were rules put in place only for first-round draft picks regarding three-year mandatory deals, players drafted earlier could actually be disadvantaged.
A player taken in the top 18 picks might only be able to earn as much as $300,000 in their third season but a player taken in the 20s who put together a brilliant first two seasons could be free to negotiate a higher contract.
Clubs would be reluctant to approve guaranteed three-year deals for all drafted players because often clubs delist players after only 24 months on a list.
The Pies last week delisted Caleb Poulter despite securing him with the No.30 selection in the 2020 national draft.
Is possible No.1 pick a go-home threat?
– Chris Cavanagh
This year’s expected No. 1 draft pick Aaron Cadman says he is genuinely excited about the prospect of moving interstate to join Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants traded their way up the draft order during this month’s AFL trade period to be able to secure Cadman, amid fears some of this year’s other top talent were not keen to move out of Victoria.
A key forward who has been compared to Geelong superstar Jeremy Cameron, Cadman is widely considered to be the best key position player in this year’s draft.
“I actually look forward to getting an opportunity to try new things,” Cadman said when asked about the prospect of moving interstate.
“So I’m really looking forward to seeing what happens. I’m more than happy to go interstate. I’d honestly probably rather to go interstate and get a restart and just experience it.”
Cadman hails from the town of Darley – which lies in-between Melbourne and Ballarat – and starred for Vic Country at the under-18 national championships this year.
He booted 10 goals from his four matches at the tournament, as well as averaging 2.8 goals across 12 NAB League games for the Greater Western Victoria Rebels.
“I could have chosen Vic Metro or Vic Country because I could have chosen the Western Jets or the Rebels,” Cadman said.
“I ended up choosing the Rebels. I’m not too much of a country boy, but I’m not a metro boy, either.”
CROWS’ SURPRISE DRAFT PICK SWAP EXPLAINED
Matt Turner
Max Michalanney would sometimes wear an Adelaide Crows jumper when he kicked the footy at home as a youngster.
Now he has moved one step closer to joining the club he supports after being nominated as a father-son prospect.
Adelaide has access to the 18-year-old Norwood defender due to his dad Jim’s 211 games for the Redlegs from 1974-86.
The Crows announced their nomination on Friday, allowing them to match a rival club’s bid on Michalanney in next month’s national draft.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER
“He’s thrilled, it’s the old saying about ‘dreams come true’,” Jim told News Corp.
“From a little fella … he’s been going to sleep with a footy, he’d have a Crows jumper on running around kicking in the yard.
“For it to come into the possibility of fruition in late November has obviously been received with great excitement by our family.
“It’s not 100 per cent guaranteed, of course, but it’s good to be thought of highly by the Crows.”
Michalanney is one of SA’s top prospects this year and is shaping as a potential second-round draft pick.
Adelaide has told his family it is difficult to predict when a rival club will bid for him but that it is pretty certain to land him.
“We’re really positive and hopeful but we’re not being presumptuous,” Jim, a four-time premiership player with the Redlegs, said.
“We’ve got our fingers crossed hoping that it goes through as planned.”
To be eligible to be a father-son pick for Adelaide, a player’s dad must have either lined up in at least 100 AFL games for the Crows, or 200-plus SANFL matches for Norwood, Glenelg, South Adelaide or Sturt between 1970 and 1990.
The Crows have drafted two: Jackson Edwards (son of Tyson) in 2017 and Ben Jarman (Darren) in 2016.
Michalanney played three league games for the Redlegs this past season, including two finals, but was dropped for the club’s premiership win.
“He’s had the most fabulous year playing footy, he’s had a lot of fun and a lot of success,” Jim said.
“I think he was fortunate in some ways to play in those two finals, but it was a wonderful experience.”
Adelaide completed two pick swaps on Friday, adding draft points to match a bid on Michalanney and also boost its hand next year, in what was considered a stronger talent pool.
The Crows traded pick 23 to North Melbourne for No. 59 and a 2023 second-round selection.
They also acquired pick 56 from Brisbane for Fremantle’s future fourth-round call.
North Melbourne’s 2023 second-rounder could be around No. 20, given the Kangaroos’ rebuild.
Adelaide now has picks 46, 56 and 59 in next month’s draft.
Crows list manager Justin Reid said the pick swaps ensured more flexibility both this year and in 2023.
Looks like no Barnett - or anyone - for the Crows before matching a Michalanney bid now, after they traded out pick 23.
— Jordan Pinto (@jordanpint0) October 21, 2022
If North finish bottom again next year, the newly-acquired future selection will come in at 19, in what is set to be stronger draft. #AFLDraft
GIANTS UNDECIDED ON NO. 1 PICK
-Chris Cavanagh
Greater Western Sydney is yet to decide whether it will bid on Brisbane father-son Will Ashcroft after securing the No. 1 pick as part of a bumper draft hand.
The Giants hold four of the top 20 draft picks this year after the completion of the AFL trade period, with selections 1, 15, 18 and 19 putting them in an enviable position.
GWS traded up the order to secure the No. 1 pick from North Melbourne, and it is expected to use it on Vic Country key forward Aaron Cadman.
However, a bid on Ashcroft – who is widely viewed as the top underage talent this year – has not been ruled out.
“We’ve obviously only had pick 1 for a couple of days and I think it’s closer to the draft that we’ll make that sort of decision,” GWS recruiting manager Adrian Caruso said.
“We’re going to go through the process and our order and ultimately it comes back to our order and that will be the determining factor on whether we bid, more than anything else.
“There’s still six weeks to go, so we just want to take our time with it all.”
The Giants received pick 15 from Brisbane as part of a pick swap, pick 18 from Geelong in exchange for Tanner Bruhn and pick 19 as part of the trade that saw Tim Taranto move to Richmond.
Brisbane did its best to load up on some draft points during the trade period, securing four second-round selections in anticipation of an early bid on classy midfielder Ashcroft.
The Lions also have Jaspa Fletcher as a Next Generation Academy prospect, who is expected to be a top-20 pick.
Richmond had four top-40 draft picks entering the trade period but now have none, with the Tigers’ first selection being at pick 53 after raids on GWS pair Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto.
West Coast holds picks 8 and 12 after handing over its pick 2 during the trade period as part of the Junior Rioli and Jason Horne-Francis mega-trade.
Those mid-first round picks will allow the Eagles to target some homegrown West Australian talent around that mark like Rueben Ginbey, Elijah Hewett and Jedd Busslinger.
“It’s not about WA talent, as such,” Eagles list manager Rohan O’Brien said.
“We’re thinking that they’re two really good picks. Eight and 12 in any draft should be a really good result and to have access to those picks, we’re really pleased.”
Multiple clubs are still trying to move up the draft order ahead of the event on November 28, with the belief that the top six or seven players in this year’s draft sit a rung above the rest.
St Kilda is one such club weighing up its options, with the Saints currently holding picks 9, 28, 32 and 47.
“We’ve got the ability to trade picks for another four weeks, I suppose,” St Kilda list manager James Gallagher said.
“The picks in the first 25 or 30, they’re being really tightly held and again in the first half a dozen. So (it’s) easier said than done.
“We’ll try and come in if we feel like we need to – or want to. But you’ve got to be willing to give something up. So we’ll work that out.”
YOUR CLUB’S DRAFT PICKS AFTER TRADE PERIOD
Adelaide: 46, 56, 59
Brisbane: 34, 35, 36, 38, 55, 73
Carlton: 10, 29, 49, 66
Collingwood: 16, 25, 27, 51
Essendon: 4, 22, 54, 62, 68, 72
Fremantle: 30, 44, 67, 76
Geelong: 7, 58, 64
Gold Coast: 5, 45, 71, 74
Greater Western Sydney: 1, 15, 18, 19, 31, 57, 61
Hawthorn: 6, 24, 41, 48, 50, 52, 65
Melbourne: 13, 37
North Melbourne: 2, 3, 23, 40, 43, 59, 70
Port Adelaide: 33, 60
Richmond: 53, 63
St Kilda: 9, 28, 32, 47
Sydney: 14, 17, 42, 75
West Coast: 8, 12, 20, 26
Western Bulldogs: 11, 21, 30, 39, 69
INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER AFTER TRADE PERIOD
ROUND 1
1. Greater Western Sydney
2. North Melbourne
3. North Melbourne
4. Essendon
5. Gold Coast
6. Hawthorn
7. Geelong
8. West Coast
9. St Kilda
10. Carlton
11. Western Bulldogs
12. West Coast
13. Melbourne
14. Sydney
15. Greater Western Sydney
16. Collingwood
17. Sydney
18. Greater Western Sydney
ROUND 2
19. Greater Western Sydney
20. West Coast
21. Western Bulldogs
22. Essendon
23. North Melbourne
24. Hawthorn
25. Collingwood
26. West Coast
27. Collingwood
28. St Kilda
29. Carlton
30. Western Bulldogs
31. Greater Western Sydney
32. St Kilda
33. Port Adelaide
34. Brisbane
35. Brisbane
36. Brisbane
37. Melbourne
38. Brisbane
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