Collingwood v Carlton: Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at both clubs to see who is closer to a flag
The Blues twin towers or a Collingwood forward line where anyone could kick it? Will it be Carlton or Collingwood with the forward dominance? Mick McGuane analysis.
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The last time Collingwood played Carlton in a game of such consequence as Sunday’s sell-out MCG clash was the 1988 qualifying final.
I remember it well, even if the result isn’t one I care to recall too much.
The Blues won what turned out to be the last final between the two old rivals, by 38 points.
It was my 25th league game and an introduction to the heat of the finals.
The bitter rivalry has been the biggest in the VFL-AFL competition over the course of the past 125 years, even if the two haven’t played against each other in finals for 34 years.
Still, as we know with these two clubs, irrespective of where they are on the ladder, they have always had a history of throwing up an upset result.
How else can you explain a history of 261 games since 1897 whereby Collingwood holds the winning ledger by the barest of margins - 129 wins, 128 losses and four draws.
In this case, it is ‘Do or Die’ for the Blues - win or draw and they are into the finals. It’s a top four opportunity for Collingwood which would aid their flag hopes.
This match has consequences like no other Collingwood-Carlton clash since 1988.
So who’s better placed to succeed on Sunday and who’s leading the race to that next flag?
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WHO HOLDS THE EDGE ON SUNDAY?
Collingwood has won 15 matches, including 11 of their past 12, with a modest percentage of 104.4%. That percentage is understandable given how narrow some of their wins have been.
Carlton has had three fewer wins, but has a percentage of 108.8%. Tellingly, they have won only one of their past five games.
From a formline perspective, the Magpies are favoured, and they beat the Blues by four points in Round 11.
Both are good territory teams, averaging 54 inside 50s per game.
Carlton is combative and relishes the contest under Michael Voss, but we know that Collingwood won’t shirk that aspect of the game.
The Magpies are more trustworthy with their tackling intent.
I can’t get Carlton’s recent tacking debacle against Adelaide out of my mind. It was an inexcusable performance with 23 broken tackles - an AFL record - which was pathetic.
It could come back to haunt the Blues under the Magpies’ heat, but Voss will make it a focus.
Collingwood likes to keep the ball in motion, which Sydney denied them last week.
Are Carlton capable of doing the same as the Swans? It’s questionable given a number of their players have suspect foot skills under pressure. They need to tidy this up.
Forward 50m pressure must be a priority.
Jamie Elliott (31 forward 50 tackles), Beau McCreery (29) and Brody Mihocek (23) lead the assault in that area. At the other end, it is Matt Owies (29), Corey Durdin (23) and mid-forward Patrick Cripps (20). By being an integral part of F50 stoppage set-ups, Cripps’ tackling intent is important.
Maybe a greater return from Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Jack Silvagni needs to take place to ensure Collingwood doesn’t go back to front with their slick ball movement.
The point of difference Carlton could bring to this massive clash is their ability to win stoppages and more importantly to score from them.
Can Collingwood defend this strength of the Blues? Yes they can.
BEST KIDS (UNDER 23)
Both clubs would think they hold sway in this category and it is a healthy debate either way.
Nick Daicos, Isaac Quaynor, Ollie Henry, Jack Ginnivan, Nathan Murphy, Beau McCreery and Josh Carmichael have given the Magpie fans something to cheer about.
The Blues have Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra, with a gap to Matthew Cottrell, Corey Durdin, Jesse Motlop, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Carroll, Josh Honey, Brodie Kemp and Liam Stocker.
Where is Paddy Dow in the conversation? He has played four games this season but doesn’t survive selection on a week to week basis. Does he remain a Blue?
Daicos has been exceptional. It is hard to ignore the impact that Quaynor and Murphy have had down back, while Ginnivan and Henry have had success at different stages in attack.
You have two potential All-Australians in this bracket in Daicos and Walsh, who are on the way towards becoming A-graders.
Daicos is now getting the accolades of getting a defensive forward applied to him, as we saw against Sydney. Why has it taken so long? He is the Magpies’ architect who sets up the play from the back half. Just imagine what he can do when he goes into the middle.
He doesn’t waste his disposals, he comes forward to defend, he generates a lot of midfield turnovers due to his reading of the play, and then penetrates the field with great decisions. Also, he goes for kick-in options that others wouldn’t dare to.
If Walsh can tidy up his kicking and hit the scoreboard more, we will be talking about one of the elite players in the competition. He is averaging 32 disposals, but his goal return (five goals in 20 games) is a room for improvement.
Two others can be A-graders in my view. Ollie Henry got sent back to the VFL to work on the defensive side of his game, but he has the aerial and ground level attributes to be a star.
He is out of contract and let’s hope the Pies can strike a deal sooner rather than later.
Cerra is the other one who could come into the conversation but he is not there yet.
THE BACKS
Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard, Isaac Quaynor, Nick Daicos, Nathan Murphy and John Noble comprise Collingwood’s best back seven combination.
The element of surprise, if they have a full bill of health, is that Jack Crisp can go back to become that bouncing rebound defender, even though this year he has played midfield and performed consistently well.
Carlton’s group includes Jacob Weitering, a much improved Lewis Young, the fairytale story of Sam Docherty, the intercepting Mitch McGovern who still needs to prove he can be relied upon in big games, and a player who is pushing for All-Australian in Adam Saad.
Michael Voss could back his sports science guys in bringing back Zac Williams, who hasn’t played since Round 9, and could return this week.
What I like about Collingwood’s backline is that Moore (30 contested marks), Howe (23) and Maynard (13) are happy to back their judgement to mark the ball.
Weitering plays the percentages as opposed to backing himself in. He did it against Buddy Franklin and took some timely one-on-one marks, but he has only taken 15 contested marks compared to Young’s 18. It’s not a criticism, it is just the way he prefers to play.
Collingwood is marginally harder to play against because the opposition score per inside 50 percentage sees them ranked 1st; Carlton is ranked 4th.
Drill that deeper, and the Magpies have given up 1689 points versus Carlton’s 1639 points, which shows how close this category is.
The Magpies’ aerial supremacy and Nick Daicos’ pin-point precision from either kick-ins or out of the back 50m tilts the scales in their favour - just.
THE MIDS
This is where Carlton holds the advantage across the year, even if an injury to Matt Kennedy has evened the ledger a little.
In points from stoppages, the advantage goes to Carlton.
The Blues are ranked fifth in points from stoppages with 33.8 and third in points from stoppages differential (+7) while the Magpies are 15th with 29 and 13th (-2.3).
Cerra and Walsh will work on the outside to complement Patrick Cripps, but they will need to give him a chop out on the inside given the Blues are missing some key mids.
Jordan De Goey could be the difference to all this - if he plays as the Magpies hope he will. He will be named and if he gets through Friday’s session, it changes everything.
He makes things happen, not just when he touches the ball, but because of his scoring involvements.
Crisp has transformed from a running back to a top-line midfielder, Pat Lipinski has been a terrific recruit, and Scott Pendlebury’s midfield return since Round 10 has been crucial to the Magpies.
Pendlebury has attended 321 centre bounces - second only to Crisp, despite playing in defence for the first third of the season. The Pies identified his leadership and organisational skills were needed around stoppages. He could even line up on Cripps to nullify his influence.
Others including Jamie Elliott, Josh Daicos and Steele Sidebottom have rolled through the middle at times.
If De Goey plays, it will give Collingwood the advantage; if not then, Carlton might hold sway.
THE FORWARDS
If ever a game was set up for two key forwards to take control, it must be Sunday, as I am a big believer that big men must assert themselves on the big stage on big occasions.
In Carlton’s case, this year’s Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow and last year’s winner Harry McKay must bring their optimum performance.
McKay must compete strongly in the contest and eliminate any mental fragility with his goalkicking. Kicks around his body or bananas from in close range must be kept to a minimum.
Curnow has kicked 62.37 and McKay 43.28, so clearly they are a threat to Collingwood. My big question mark on McKay in a big game is: has he got the mental strength to convert his opportunities? Or will we see him fold under the pressure that Sunday presents?
The synergy between the two key forwards has been remarkable, given how little they have played together. They have kicked 105.65 - which is 41 percent of their total goals scored.
As much as that’s a strength, it could also be a weakness, as they are easy to plan against.
If they have a bad day at the office or the conditions don’t favour big forwards, where does the Blues’ scoring come from?
Cripps is next in line with 20 goals as a mid-forward, followed by Zac Fisher (18) and Jack Silvagni (17). They need to get more goals from their small forwards and other mids.
Collingwood has a completely different structure and gets its goals from many sources.
Brody Mihocek and Ginnivan have kicked 37 and 32 goals, which is 27 percent of Collingwood’s goals.
Ginnivan will be named, but will he play? The same could be said of De Goey, who could prove the spark the Pies need both in the midfield and in attack.
Incredibly, the Magpies have kicked 257 goals to Carlton’s 258 … one goal difference in their 21 games, but they have done it with a completely different looking forward set-up and less reliant on two big, power forwards.
Is it the diversity of Collingwood’s forwards line that holds the advantage or will the two-pronged Blues forward monsters be the difference?
If the weather is fine, it could be the Blues. If De Goey plays to compliment Elliot, it could be the Pies.
WHO’S CLOSER TO A FLAG
The logical answer is Collingwood. They have already qualified for the finals and once you are in there, anything can happen.
The Magpies have given themselves a chance this year that no one saw coming. While you have an opportunity, you need to TAKE IT.
It might not come again.
Carlton is not entrenched in the finals and has already blown a few chances to lock in a spot.
Long-term, it’s hard to say, but I do know what each club needs to chase that flag dream.
Nick Daicos will evolve into a superstar midfielder, so the Magpies will need to chase a creative half-back to take over his role. They also need another tall forward, and that’s why they have gone all chips in for Brisbane’s Dan McStay.
Some say the deal is done already on McStay; the question is whether he is the right one.
Carlton should chase outside ball users either through the draft or free agency/trade period.
The Blues’ kicking issues are still a big concern for me. They need to fix this problem.
Their contest work has been signed off under first-year coach Michael Voss. We’ve seen a rapid improvement since the days of David Teague.
If I was Carlton, I would also be chasing a third goalkicker to support Curnow and McKay. They recruited Jack Martin for the role, but it hasn’t consistently worked for various reasons.
Whatever the case, the AFL would be licking their lips at the prospect of this game, and future Pies-Blues finals.
SUNDAY’S TIP: Collingwood by 2 points.
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