Coaching great Mick Malthouse previews the four massive finals in the AFL
The best of the best are settled. Now we will see who really has what it takes to go on deep run this finals series. Mick Malthouse looks at the four massive finals and gives his take on a suggested rule change for 2021.
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Predictably we have a new final eight. Enter Port Adelaide and St Kilda, and so long Greater Western Sydney and Essendon. Just two changes in 2020 compared to last season, but significant ones.
PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG
TENTH for the past two seasons, Port has been outstanding this year and finished the season proper with form, including a comprehensive victory over Collingwood to seal the minor premiership.
Its last loss was in round 12, against Geelong.
The Cats have had a wonderful season, but as we’ve neared finals they seem to have petered out a little and have left the door slightly ajar to be hijacked, again.
A big loss to Richmond and a close win over Sydney should have the alarm bells ringing, after bowing out in the preliminary finals in three of the past four seasons.
In saying that, Geelong hasn’t done a lot wrong this season. Cameron Guthrie and Sam Menegola have been revelations. Gary Ablett has been even more impressive, so too Patrick Dangerfield. And big Tom Hawkins claimed his first Coleman Medal.
In its 60-point win just six weeks ago, Geelong’s defence overwhelmed the Port game plan.
A seven-goal last quarter by the Cats exaggerated the margin, but Port does struggle against bigger-bodied teams and Geelong took advantage of that.
Guthrie had a day out with 27 possessions, and Hawkins kicked six goals, but Port was without Todd Marshall, and that is a big loss because he takes the heat off Charlie Dixon, Robbie Gray and Tom Rockliff.
History is a wonderful teacher, but it’s what you do with the lesson that counts. I have no doubt Port will be better prepared this time.
It has been a model of consistency all year, but with a slight change in game and player structure Port has been excellent in its past five games, its defence in particular, conceding less than 60 points per game.
This is where Hawkins becomes the sticking point. How Port negates the ball movement to him could be the difference between winning and losing. He will have a height and weight advantage over whoever defends him, so he will win most of his one-on-one contests.
Tom Clurey, coming off a hamstring injury, may well get the job on Hawkins, but he will need support in the air.
Port at home, in front of a one-sided crowd, will resist Geelong’s advances.
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BRISBANE LIONS v RICHMOND
RICHMOND has taken the full 17 rounds to secure a top four spot, but its recent form has been ominous.
Its win over Brisbane in round 10 wasn’t entirely reflective of either club, with the Lions’ accuracy in the second half costing them dearly.
Big forwards, Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt kicked seven between them, and Dustin Martin again looked dangerous, which is worrisome for Brisbane, because like Port Adelaide it can tend to get belted up by bigger bodies.
Harris Andrews’ omission is a huge loss for the Lions’ backline, though Lynch, if he plays, is coming off a hamstring injury.
Richmond will play its way regardless. Chaotic to everyone watching, but predictable to the team. Brisbane is more sedate in its ball movement and works it forward with thorough examination of what’s ahead, compared to the holistic approach of bombing it into the forwards. The Lions lose structure and become unsettled, however, against highly intense teams – such as Richmond.
The upside for Brisbane is that Charlie Cameron has returned to his early season form, Lachie Neale has remained impressive, and Stefan Martin’s return adds stability.
While the Tigers have lost Ivan Soldo, Toby Nankervis is the perfect fit in this match.
Whether it’s wet from dew or rain, Richmond are the wet weather specialists, so a later timeslot will suit them.
With recent wins over top eight clubs Collingwood and St Kilda recently, Brisbane finished second in the home-and-away season for a reason, but I think the Tigers’ manic approach will be too much for the Lions this time.
ST KILDA v WESTERN BULLDOGS
WHILE they’ve done well to make the eight, St Kilda and the Bulldogs enter the finals in indifferent form. St Kilda has won just two of its past five games, while uncertainty over Aaron Naughton and Mitch Wallis hangs heavy over the Dogs.
Both clubs are exciting and tenacious, with hard running players and strong marking capabilities. But their weaknesses will be exploited during the finals.
The Saints are one of the worst teams for protecting the corridor when they turn the ball over in their forward line. There is a quick pathway for the opposition to the other end of the ground, generally through the middle, where St Kilda players are slow to react in transition. This puts enormous pressure on the backline.
This area of concern has improved marginally in recent weeks, particularly with Seb Ross tagging Stephen Coniglio in their win against GWS last week.
St Kilda’s forward line can kick goals and the backline is adequate. Whereas the Bulldogs have problems at both ends of the ground. If Naughton misses, Josh Bruce is the next tall forward, but he neither works hard nor holds onto the marks he gets his hands to.
The backline with Zaine Cordy and Ryan Gardner makes too many mistakes. But Alex Keath has held up well and will need to again.
An earlier game means no dew, so St Kilda can afford to load up its talls in the forward line. Max King, Tim Membrey and Rowan Marshall, with Jack Billings, Jack Lonie and Dan Butler at their feet, will cause some serious damage.
Even though the Bulldogs are running into some good form, the Saints have the team to win.
WEST COAST v COLLINGWOOD
THIS game is up for grabs.
Collingwood won’t mind the travel as it plays well in Perth, and it is a kind timeslot given its quarantine constraints. While West Coast face a host of unknowns.
Question marks over Luke Shuey, Josh Kennedy and Jeremy McGovern, plus no Elliot Yeo, opens up the door for a Collingwood forward line with Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, and Jordan De Goey to do some real damage.
The Eagles won comfortably last time they met, in round 8, when the Pies fell away in the second half. Kennedy kicked seven and Oscar Allen three, so it’s no surprise that if there’s no Kennedy, West Coast will need to find one or two more goalkickers.
Adam Treloar with De Goey in his third game back, are the danger players along with Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams, who could cause all the trouble for the Eagles. Without Shuey, the Eagles midfield would be diminished of grunt.
The ruck duel will be a beauty. Nic Naitanui dominated Brodie Grundy last time, but Grundy is better than that.
Both clubs have settled and hardened backlines, but neither forward line has been dominant in recent weeks. West Coast’s game plan is well established, but the Pies have been rushing the ball into their forward line and hoping for the best. Against Gold Coast they appeared more settled and gave their forwards a better than even chance.
The crowd advantage at Optus Stadium won’t be a significant factor for the Pies. Not as much as the uncertainty surrounding the Eagles’ line up, which could give Collingwood the chance to pinch victory.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT GAME LENGTH IN 2021?
There has been constant nagging from several sources in recent times about the length of the game.
The league won’t stick with 16-minute quarters next season, but it has hinted that it will look at shortening match time.
There is a simple solution, I think, for 20-minute quarters to remain while reducing the length of the game.
What draws out the quarters is the stopping of the clock. We know it needs to stop for ad breaks after a goal so that is a given, but there is nothing in the rule book that says ruckmen need to be in place before the boundary umpire throws the ball in.
Therefore, if the ball goes out of bounds the umpire quickly retrieves it, or grabs a spare ball that has been placed on the sidelines at the 50 metre junctions and on the wings, and throws it straight back in without stopping the clock. Not only will there be less time wasted, but congestion will ease without time for too many players to jostle for position.
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At point kick ins, once again there’s no need to stop the clock if the full back grabs a ball from a stash behind the goals and has five seconds to kick it from within the goal square.
These two small changes immediately reduce the amount of time-on.
For ball ups around the ground, time-on can be at the umpires discretion (for injuries etc), eliminating unnecessary time-on.
I know too well that coaches can instruct their players to be slow to hand the ball back or when picking it up, but it’s amazing what a free against will do for time wasting.
These are not rule changes, but rather concepts that the players and umpires could easily adapt to, for the benefit of the footy loving public who will still see at least 20 minutes of football played each quarter, in games closer to two hours than three.
Originally published as Coaching great Mick Malthouse previews the four massive finals in the AFL