Jon Ralph: Carlton has already decided coach David Teague’s future
David Teague is expected to learn his fate as Carlton coach this week and one crucial factor could determine whether he coaches the club next year.
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David Teague’s uncertain relationships with senior players will be one of the many elements of a football review that is expected to see him moved on as senior coach.
The Blues will consider the contents of an official external review on Thursday, with Teague’s future already all but decided.
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While the review has not officially been tabled, Carlton’s issues are well known inside the club and are expected to see the Blues move on from the second-year coach.
While there were early indications he could be informed as soon as Friday of his likely departure, circumstances at the club are expected to delay any announcement.
Marc Murphy will play his 300th game this weekend in a celebration of his loyalty and resilience, while co-captain Sam Docherty’s latest cancer battle has rocked the club.
It is understood Docherty’s recurrence of testicular cancer, which will require 12 weeks of chemotherapy, has him facing a significant health battle compared to the 4-6 week recovery timeline of last November’s diagnosis.
His immediate priority, given the worrying diagnosis, will be to become cancer free rather than consider a return to football at some stage down the track.
While Teague’s strong relationships with the likes of Eddie Betts and Mitch McGovern were critical to their arrival at the club, the tensions of a long year of scrutiny have taken their toll on the coach and the Carlton playing group.
The Herald Sun can reveal some senior players at Carlton believe their inability to form close relationships with Teague is just one of many factors that have contributed to a below-par year.
Teague was initially seen as a strong relationships builder, especially when he replaced sacked coach Brendon Bolton halfway through the 2019 season.
But as the Blues have battled for wins this year Teague has been increasingly demanding of his players who at times believe he has been overly negative.
While the AFL’s most successful coaches demand total effort it comes with strong connections that underpin the relationship and allow them to impart tough love.
Emotional intelligence and strong relationship building in senior coaches is increasingly the most important factor in their success, as Chris Fagan has shown at Brisbane.
There is a view the Blues have regularly been outcoached this year, the most recent example their midfield battering against Gold Coast.
Carlton’s young onball star Sam Walsh attended only 13 centre square involvements, down from 20 the previous week, and was absent for key moments as the game swung to the Suns.
Walsh was outside the square in the first two centre bounces of the third term, first four of the last term and five of the seven final-term centre square bounces.
The Blues were smacked by the Suns, losing seven of the 10 centre bounces that their brilliant star did not attend.
Rival list managers have also noted Carlton has paid around $2 million for Adam Saad, Zac Williams and Lachie Fogarty but failed to improve.
In contrast Essendon and North Melbourne have shown significant growth with a cohesive game plan and real improvement from younger players under first-year coaches.
Carlton is adamant it has not told Teague about his future and has not yet contacted rival suitors for his role.
While the review will consider positions across the board fitness boss Andrew Russell, on over $400,000 a season, is expected to stay on next season.
Revealed: Why axe has not fallen on Carlton coach — yet
At old Carlton, David Teague would have copped it in the neck on Sunday morning.
John Elliott would have summoned him to a 7am breakfast meeting during which he would have taken great delight in laying bare his shortcomings as a human being and football coach.
And with that message about packing his bags — most likely leaked to the media already — Teague would have been yet another former Carlton coach.
As an under-siege Blues coach back then you didn’t lose to the 14th and 18th-placed teams in the space of three weeks and outlast the weekend.
Teague’s job is still in mortal danger after an underperforming year and with a modest payout figure that won’t nobble the football cap next year.
But the Blues are determined to show they are the new Carlton, one that follows process and chains of accountability and uses detailed reviews to make decisions in the cold light of day.
It is why Teague will coach out the season despite rumours again on Monday — this time through 3AW’s Neil Mitchell — that he had been told he had been sacked.
And it is why Carlton is at least publicly desperate to push the message that Teague’s future is not made up until its board assesses the review when it lands in coming days.
They are the same rumours from last week, of desperate Sunday meetings and of rash decisions before the club has a complete picture.
Mitchell might be right, he might just be 14 days too soon.
Old Carlton would not have waited for the review.
New Carlton is adamant president-elect Luke Sayers is calmly awaiting the review despite perceptions he is desperate to make an impact with a high-profile coaching acquisition.
Carlton will assess that review and then post-season — in the cold hard light of day — the board and CEO Cain Liddle will decide the fate of Teague.
The club is adamant it has not made formal inquiries to replacements including Ross Lyon, Alastair Clarkson, Don Pyke and Brad Scott.
It would only do so if Teague’s position became untenable in the postseason.
But it would be irresponsible if the Blues haven’t at least contacted them through back channels to assess if they are available.
Already a clean-out of the club’s assistant coaches looks certain, with the only doubt being how far the broom is swept.
For Teague, it is not the number of wins that has been the problem, because eight wins is not a million miles short of the 10-12 victories they realistically believed they could achieve this year.
St Kilda could well point to the intense focus on Teague compared to the total lack of speculation about Brett Ratten’s future when his much-hyped Saints have only one more win and a worse percentage.
Even if they didn’t rule out premierships as a best-case scenario pre-season, the Blues knew they were short of quality midfielders; they knew they had too few 25 to 28-year-old stars.
It is why they topped up with Adam Saad and Zac Williams, even if the rest of us believed it meant the list build might be complete.
The real issue for Teague is the manner of the losses, the lack of a cohesive defensive plan, the helplessness about how to fix the club’s issues and the clear doubt about whether he is capable of taking this club to a premiership.
When the review lands it will surely talk about the drafting failures, the inability of the medicos and sports scientists to keep stars on the park, the tension and confusion over list management responsibilities that the club has since rectified.
Players are aware that losing the club’s stoppage coach John Barker in June has not helped — a fact played out on Sunday when the Blues lost clearances by a dozen to the Gold Coast midfield, which is rated 17th for clearances in the competition.
It was Carlton’s sixth-worst effort of the year.
Every review gives those that commission it ample evidence to either back the current coach or sack him.
But the only question Carlton really needs to ask itself is this: is Teague capable of winning a premiership by 2023?
Or would Lyon or Scott or Clarkson — if available — give Carlton a better chance to hold up a premiership cup?
It is the club’s stated ambition from its five-year vision in 2019 to “win premierships” by 2023, to have 100,000 members, to have zero historical debt, to have $75 million in revenue, and to have its master plan complete.
As of this year the club is debt free, has a club-record 81,302 members, is on track to have the first fully integrated AFL-AFLW facilities in the league as part of that Ikon Park master plan.
It is the football department dragging the chain.
So play Choose Your Own Adventure and slot in an alternative coach at Carlton next year.
Under Lyon they would boast a ruthless and experienced coach who took St Kilda to 20 wins within three seasons and Fremantle to 14, 16, 16 and 17 wins in his first four years — both times taking talented sides to the Grand Final and both times losing because of inaccuracy or bad luck out of his control.
Carlton might average a goal less in attack but they would stop three more in defence.
Under Justin Leppitsch they would inherit the man who helped Alex Rance transform from talented but inconsistent into a titan of the game and a future Hall of Famer.
And who honed Richmond’s 2017 forward line into a pressuring, frenzied mob who won the flag in a manner never before achieved.
Under Brad Scott they would secure a whip-smart 45-year-old having already learned all the lessons of a decade in charge taking good-but-not-great lists into preliminary finals.
Under Don Pyke, players such as Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Matt Owies, Josh Honey and Jack Silvagni would bask in the slick, structured, spectacular ball movement of Pyke-coached sides as well as his relationship-building off the field.
So Teague will coach out the final two rounds as the review lands in all its detail, safe for the next 12 days but guaranteed nothing past that date.
If Clarkson is keen, it will be time for Teague to pack his bags, but even if Clarkson is not interested, it is still unlikely Teague will be coaching Carlton next year.
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Originally published as Jon Ralph: Carlton has already decided coach David Teague’s future
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