AFL run home: Finals spots set to be decided in round 24
The Bombers are still in the hunt for September, but by the time their final round blockbuster with the Pies comes around, will they still have a chance? Check out our full predicted ladder.
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We were promised the closest race for the eight in recent memory and after going through every game in the final three weeks of the home-and-away season, our final predicted ladder has three teams tied for that final spot in September.
Who will punch their ticket for finals and where does your side finish?
1. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 16, Lost: 4, Points: 64, Percentage: 128
A bad fortnight for the Magpies – as recent history suggests, premiership teams win most of their games at this time of the season. Even with Nick Daicos and Nathan Murphy sidelined, Collingwood still remains Winx-odds to win the minor premiership. After losses to Carlton and Hawthorn, Collingwood now cannot equal the 2011 team’s 20 victories, the most in one season in club history.
2. MELBOURNE
Won: 14, Lost: 6, Points: 56, Percentage: 125.3
Melbourne got a shock early on Sunday when the Roos jumped out of the blocks. It didn’t matter in the end result but the slow start cost the Demons vital percentage. By the end of their game, they were above Brisbane’s percentage by just 0.1 per cent. The gap widened slightly as the day wore on and percentage could be a massive part of the run home. It likely keeps the Demons ahead of the Power and in second spot by September. Win all three from here and Melbourne enjoys an MCG qualifying final.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 14, Lost: 6, Points: 56, Percentage: 124.2
The Lions almost kissed goodbye a top-two finish in Perth on Sunday, but the three-point win keeps the door well and truly ajar. Brisbane should beat Adelaide and St Kilda at home, the trip to face Collingwood will be interesting. Win that, and it could all be about percentage for second spot.
4. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 14, Lost: 6, Points: 56, Percentage: 108.5
Four games dropped in a row now for the Power and a home game this weekend against the Giants is no gimme. This flat month has left Ken Hinkley’s team hoping Melbourne and Brisbane slip up now on the run home, because its suddenly hard to see Port earning a home qualifying final now.
5. CARLTON
Won: 11, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 46, Percentage: 117.2
Remember those talkback calls of Blues fans crying out about a season that was going down the drain? Well they will all be lining up for tickets to a monstrous MCG home elimination final in a month’s time. Carlton has flown into fifth and surely from here fly into finals. Just one win from the next three probably gets Carlton there, but two definitely locks in a September berth. Should start even odds with Melbourne on Saturday night. They couldn’t make it eight wins in a row could they?
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 11, Lost: 9, Points: 44, Percentage: 109
A huge win on Friday night, the Dogs just need two more to guarantee a top-eight spot. Given Hawthorn’s form recently, a game down in Tasmania is really a 50-50 proposition, but doing the job on Sunday virtually locks the Dogs in, with West Coast in round 23. The Dogs probably should get a home elimination final from here, but it is unlikely to matter with most other sides in the hunt from Victoria anyway.
7. ST KILDA
Won: 11, Lost: 9, Points: 44, Percentage: 104.9
The Saints ran out of legs on Sunday against the Blues and their season could be heading the same way. Still on 11 wins, winning two out of three should guarantee a spot in September. Richmond seems immune to winning at Marvel Stadium but then Geelong and Brisbane awaits. There is still plenty of hope but a low percentage compared to Adelaide could be costly.
8. GWS GIANTS
Won: 11, Lost: 9, Points: 44, Percentage: 101.6
A hugely consequential Sydney Derby loss on Saturday night – now the odds have shifted against the Giants to make finals. Holding a poor percentage, GWS must win two of three from here to make it, which includes interstate games against Port Adelaide and Carlton. It likely will all come down to round 24, which could be the marquee Sunday showcase game in the AFL’s final round.
9. GEELONG
Won: 10, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 119.2
Closing out the fourth quarter against Port Adelaide was massive for Geelong and suddenly this Friday night against Collingwood looms even larger. A win against the sputtering Magpies would put one foot into the finals for the Cats, if they lose, they will need to win their last two. It remains a tough final month but Geelong started off on the right path.
10. SYDNEY
Won: 10, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 111.3
The Swans have quietly been nudging the door in the last month and having won four in a row, now the door is certainly open. Saturday’s Sydney Derby win was a monster step forward, not only helping the Swans but wounding a team they have to get past in the Giants. Take care of Gold Coast this week and then round 23 is basically an elimination final against Adelaide – the winner of that game probably makes the eight.
11. ADELAIDE
Won: 10, Lost: 10, Points: 40, Percentage: 117.1
The next two weeks will decide Adelaide’s season. A win in Brisbane makes the Crows odds-on to make finals and the home game against Sydney looms as a virtual knockout for the loser. The Crows are better than a just a chance and their percentage is clearly the best out of the main contenders for eighth spot. From our numbers, the Crows swoop in to claim the final spot in the eight.
12. ESSENDON
Won: 10, Lost: 10, Points: 40, Percentage: 98.5
Essendon has the same amount of wins as Adelaide, but a bad percentage makes it extremely unlikely the Dons get to finals unless they win all three games from here. Hard to see that happening after just squeezing past West Coast this week. Finals could still be alive by the final round against Collingwood.
13. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Drawn: 1, Point: 38, Percentage: 94.8
You can scratch Richmond off the list of finals contenders now. Even if the Tigers win out from here, 12-and-a-half wins likely won’t be enough with that below-par percentage. A potential MCG farewell for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt looms in round 23.
14. GOLD COAST
Won: 9, Lost: 11, Points: 36, Percentage: 93.8
It’s mathematically possible for the Suns but it is not going to happen. The next two weeks present winnable games for the Suns to get started on 2024.
15. FREMANTLE
Won: 8, Lost: 12, Points: 32, Percentage: 89.3
Another strong performance from Fremantle this week, but it has all come too late. Some solace should be found with a comfortable Western Derby win, but it seems the Dockers are set to finish 15th.
16. HAWTHORN
Won: 6, Lost: 14, Points: 24, Percentage: 80.9
The Hawks are a real show of picking up another win against the Dogs in Tassie this weekend and have two MCG games to finish off the year. Unless Fremantle really falls in a hole, Hawthorn is locked into 16th.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 18, Points: 8, Percentage: 67.6
Some good signs early on Sunday in Alastair Clarkson’s return and then the Roos trailed off. A final round clash against Gold Coast in Tasmania looms as the most likely chance to grab a third win. Unless West Coast can cause an upset, North Melbourne will be trapped in 17th.
18. WEST COAST EAGLES
Won: 2, Lost: 18, Points: 8, Percentage: 52.1
For a hot minute there on Saturday afternoon, the Eagles had jumped off the bottom of the ladder and lost out in the Race for (Harley) Reid. That flipped back by the final siren, do the Eagles have one other big game in them, perhaps in the Western Derby?
Originally published as AFL run home: Finals spots set to be decided in round 24
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