AFL round 14: Hawthorn vs Adelaide Crows, Garry Lyon analysis

Nick Watson. Jack Ginnivan. Josh Rachele. Izak Rankine. Launceston has never seen Friday night entertainment like this. Fox Footy’s Garry Lyon dissects the battle of the human highlight reels.

Friday night footy in Launceston in the winter months is a challenging environment for any football team.

If the weekend just gone is anything to go by, goals in the AFL are suddenly hard to come by.

And if it’s the frigid weather that is responsible for the low scores, then Launceston on Friday night in June is not the place to reverse the trend.

But in Hawthorn and Adelaide there are a group of players that should give their teams the chance to post a competitive score.

And while Mabior Chol was simply outstanding in Hawthorn’s win against the Dogs last week and the big three of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker provide a massive stress test for any defence in the competition, I’m turning my attention to their smaller running mates.

For the Crows – Josh Rachele, Izak Rankine and Ben Keays and for the Hawks – Nick Watson, Dylan Moore and Jack Ginnivan.

Rachele’s development has been a victory for the Adelaide system.

Dropped for the final game last year (a decision I queried at the time) it would appear that it has been the catalyst for his emergence as a genuine and consistent game changing forward.

After a super start to the season Rachele missed three weeks following a rib injury he suffered against the Kangaroos.

Josh Rachele during his SANFL stint last year. Picture: Dean Martin

Rachele celebrates a goal during Adelaide’s victory over Brisbane Lions.

However, he has reappeared with a vengeance and his last six games has him rated as a top-15 player in the competition.

When Matthew Nicks and his coaching group elected to drop him for that last game of last year, in their wildest dreams they would have hoped he would respond with a stretch of form that sees him now in such exalted company.

In that time he has averaged over 13 possessions a game, 2.7 goals and just under seven score involvements.

Impressively he’s been able to recognise big moments and convert difficult opportunities at clutch moments.

He seems to be a far more mature player, someone that can both inspire but be relied upon.

He is growing into the sort of player that they were hoping to get when they drafted him with the number six pick in the 2021 Draft.

Speaking of reliable, Ben Keays is enjoying the best form of his career.

The job that he did last week in taking responsibility for the Lions fire starter Dayne Zorko while also managing to be an offensive threat was one of the defining reasons the Crows were able to beat Brisbane.

His teammates must simply love playing with him.

Ben Keays has become one of Adelaide’s most-important players.

He works tirelessly from the start of the game until the end and he refuses to ever concede in a contest, whether it be simply 1v1 or when he is outnumbered and absolutely must get the ball to ground.

He kept Zorko to just nine possessions in the first half while accumulating 14 himself and kicking a goal.

With a player such as Zorko, you have to keep him engaged.

Left to his own devices he will slice you to ribbons and before you know it the tables are turned and he becomes the offensive weapon and his opponent just chases his tail.

Keays was brilliant with his positioning and running patterns, to the point Zorko was reluctant to go on his searching runs.

The Lions moved him from Keays in the second half and Keays became an even more attacking force, adding a further two goals in their five goal fourth quarter blitz that ended up being the difference in the game.

He is currently ranked elite for all of marks, goals, disposals and uncontested possessions.

The uncontested element comes from the fact he works harder than anyone else. He truly has been a revelation in recent years.

Izak Rankine’s cellys never disappoint 😍#AFLDeadly | #AFLCrowsEaglespic.twitter.com/p9rpDS65mR

— AFL (@AFL) May 25, 2025

And then there’s Izak Rankine, who probably puts fear into opposition planning meetings more than most.

He played 70 per cent midfield for the first eight rounds, 30 per cent forward and had a huge impact.

The last five weeks he’s flipped that on its head with a 40 per cent mid and 60 per cent forward mix.

He’s still averaging over 20 possessions in that time but has added a goal a game and more than six score involvements.

I suspect these numbers may level out to be a genuine 50-50 mid forward split for this wicked talent, depending on what the game demands.

I always try and put myself in the position of an opposition coach and wonder where they would prefer he spent the majority of his time.

And that is why he is so dangerous. If you hope he plays more forward, he can tear you apart with a handful of possessions, turning the impossible into the routine.

Where goals are becoming a scarcity, I think that’s where I’d play him more.

But if you then ‘wish’ him away from the forward line he has shown the capability to wreak havoc through the middle of the ground with his ball winning, stoppage work and creativity.

However, the sobering reality for whomever the Crows are playing is Rankine is in career best form as far as disposals, score assists and score involvements are concerned. That has to spell trouble.

Hawks excitement machine Nick Watson. Picture: Michael Klein

Can Watson, Ginnivan and Moore match the deeds of the havoc created from Crow town?

Ginnivan is the one who has found his mojo in the past month.

For someone who has demonstrated an insatiable appetite for the bright lights that AFL footy provides, to be dropped from the Easter Monday clash with Geelong must have been a blow to the ego.

The response in the VFL game was going to be instructional – sulk and sink or respond and resurrect? It was definitely the latter with four goals and 22 touches and his stay in purgatory was over.

And he hasn’t looked back. In his last four games he is averaging more than 22 touches, five marks, two goals and six score involvements.

They are outstanding numbers for players of this position and Ginnivan deserves plenty of credit for the turnaround in his form.

Dylan Moore has become one of the AFL’s best smalls.

Nick Watson has become somewhat of a barometer for this Hawthorn outfit, which is a fair responsibility to carry for a young man of just 30 games experience.

When he is on, ducking and darting his way around the forward half of the ground, being isolated in the goalsquare or just making a general nuisance of himself for opposition defences, the Hawks are every inch the precious, irrepressible force we have witnessed in the past year and a bit.

When he has six or more score involvements the Hawks are 4-0. When he is under six score involvements they are 3-5.

Victory or defeat doesn’t rest solely on his shoulders of course but they are their best version of themselves when he is impacting the scoring process.

Since 1999, only Luke Breust, with 53, has kicked more goals after 30 games than Watson, who has managed 43.

Nick Watson is charting goal numbers not seen since Luke Breust’s start to his career.

That is exceptional company to be keeping for the pocket dynamo and Hawthorn fans will be desperately hoping he returns from his illness full of beans and energy.

Dylan Moore had a magnificent 2024 All Australian year.

He has not quite had the impact this season and if the Hawks are to replicate their finals winning feat of last year, he needs to return to his absolute best.

If he can match the deeds of Keays, then the Hawks will be a far more dangerous proposition.

He has the capacity to work both ways that Keays has and at his best he is the equal, if not better, attacking threat.

His 36 goals last year, two more than Keays, and 33 goal assists lead to his first All Australian blazer.

Garry Lyon likes Izak Rankine playing more in attack.

While Champion Data has him rated as elite for disposals, uncontested possessions and marks, and above average for score involvements, his direct scoreboard influence is not where it was.

He’s kicked just 11 goals from 13 games, and managed just four goal assists.

If he can get back to his more dangerous 2024 form, the Hawks top four chances get an undeniable boost.

Sam Mitchell is not getting carried away with their last start victory over the Dogs.

He knows they need to be more efficient going forward and as stated, the 81 point return from 58 inside 50s needs improving.

And Matthew Nicks in no way believes his Crows are the finished product.

They absorbed 20 inside 50s in their last quarter come from behind victory over the Brisbane Lions and will be loath to give up so much territory to the Hawks on Friday night.

These are two teams that have justifiable confidence in their ability to go deep into September. They are also two teams that registered just their 2nd victory against a top eight side last week.

Rachele, Rankine and Keays or Watson, Ginnivan and Moore?

The collective influence of each may determine the outcome of this game.

Originally published as AFL round 14: Hawthorn vs Adelaide Crows, Garry Lyon analysis