AFL Fixture: The winners and losers of the 2023 fixture
From the moment the AFL fixture came out, the TAB traders went to work. Find out how they calculated their 2023 markets and who they think is overvalued and undervalued.
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An analysis of the total strength of schedule for the 2023 AFL season, TAB have found that the Crows are the big winners out of the draw, followed by the Lions and the Blues.
TAB’s total strength of schedule is calculated by how many points either better or worse opponents are than the league average, given TAB trader ratings and home ground advantage.
The league average is based on player ratings derived from their statistics.
From this TAB have dubbed the Crows as the big winners out of the draw.
Thanks to South Australia hosting Gather Round the Crows pick up an extra home game and play the bottom four from last year six times.
The rebuilding Crows are still a $67 chance to win the 2023 premiership, but their kind draw does have the Crows a $6 chance to make the top eight and return to finals.
The Lions are considered to not have such a kind draw, but their home ground advantage at the Gabba has them as one of the teams TAB feels like benefits the most and are at $9 to win the flag.
Like the Crows, Carlton play the bottom four from last year six times in the Blues’ draw that is better than the league average.
This has them already coming in from $12 to $9 to win the flag after the fixture was released.
On the other side of the fence both Sydney teams have received hard draws.
GWS are considered to be the worst off in TAB’s total strength of schedule, while the Swans are the only team to play both Geelong and Melbourne twice – which has resulted in them drifting from $9 to $12 in the premiership odds.
See where your club sits in the betting ladder in TAB’s total strength of schedule.
Advantageous Strength of Schedule
ADELAIDE CROWS
Premiership Winner: $67
Top 4: $15
Top 8: $6
To miss the finals: $1.10
The Crows benefit from having an extra home game due to Gather Round. Their double up matches are neutral with return games versus stronger sides of Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide cancelled out by weaker return matches versus GWS, Gold Coast and West Coast. The combined effect hands the Crows the most advantageous schedule of 2023.
BRISBANE
Premiership Winner: $9
Top 4: $2.10
Top 8: $1.20
To miss the finals: $4.25
Brisbane benefit from a strong home ground advantage in their draw and a neutral strength of opponent in their double up matches. They have tough return games against strong sides including Collingwood, Melbourne and Fremantle, however these are cancelled out by easier double ups against Adelaide, Gold Coast and St Kilda.
CARLTON
Premiership Winner: $9
Top 4: $2.20
Top 8: $1.30
To miss the finals: $3.40
While their overall net home ground advantage is negative due to them playing 6 neutral ground home games against fellow Victorian clubs, they benefit greatly from the strength of opponent in their double up matches. Return games against Gold Coast, GWS, St Kilda and West Coast more than offset the double ups against Collingwood and Melbourne. The combined effect sees Carlton with the third most advantageous draw of 2023.
GEELONG
Premiership Winner: $5.50
Top 4: $1.50
Top 8: $1.05
To miss the finals: $9
with 9 home games at GMHBA and 6 of their away games scheduled in Melbourne, the Cats have a very strong net home ground advantage portion of their fixture. Their strength of opponent for return matches however does offset the strong home ground advantage a little bit. They have tough double up matches against Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Western Bulldogs. Essendon is the only team expected to be below average that Geelong plays twice.
FREMANTLE
Premiership Winner: $18
Top 4: $5
Top 8: $2.05
To miss the finals: $1.72
The Dockers enjoy a slightly above average net home ground advantage, but this will be diminished by having a number of games against tougher than average opponents for double up matches with games against Brisbane, Geelong, Sydney and Western Bulldogs. These aren’t quite offset by easier games versus West Coast and Hawthorn, which is why the Dockers have remained steady in betting at $18.
PORT ADELAIDE
Premiership Winner: $13
Top 4: $3
Top 8: $1.40
To miss the finals: $2.85
Like Adelaide, the Power have a large net home ground advantage for 2023 thanks to the extra home game during Gather Round. However, a lot of the home ground advantage is cancelled out by a tough schedule of double up matches against Geelong, Collingwood, Richmond and Western Bulldogs. Adelaide and Essendon are the only return matches against below average teams.
Toughest Strength of Schedule
ST KILDA
Premiership Winner: $34
Top 4: $10
Top 8: $4
To miss the finals: $1.22
The Saints have a large net negative home ground advantage. This is driven by only 4 true home games against interstate rivals. Most of their draw is made up of neutral venue and away games. They have neutral strength of opponent in double ups against strong teams Brisbane, Richmond and Carlton offset by weaker return fixtures versus Gold Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Premiership Winner: $151
Top 4: $67
Top 8: $26
To miss the finals: $1.01
The Kangaroos suffer from the biggest net negative for home ground advantage. Influenced by 7 neutral venue home games versus Melbourne based clubs. North do get some of this disadvantage offset by the third easiest schedule of return games with double ups against teams expected to below average – Essendon, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, St Kilda and West Coast. Melbourne are North’s only return opponent expected to be above average. This combines to give North the fifth toughest strength of schedule.
RICHMOND
Premiership Winner: $8
Top 4: $2.10
Top 8: $1.20
To miss the finals: $4.25
With 7 home games against fellow Victorian clubs and two away trips to Perth, the Tigers get the third hardest schedule in terms of net home ground advantage. They play double ups against stronger teams Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney and Western Bulldogs. This is offset by return games against West Coast and St Kilda. Richmond have dodged double ups against other top 4 aspirants including Geelong, Carlton and Collingwood. The combined effect still has Richmond getting the fourth toughest schedule, but they have received some support in the market shortening to $8 from $10 when the market opened in September.
HAWTHORN
Premiership Winner: $101
Top 4: $34
Top 8: $13
To miss the finals: $1.01
The Hawks dilute their home ground advantage by having to travel for 4 home games a year. Combined with 5 Melbourne home games against Victorian clubs, this results in Hawthorn having one of the weaker home ground advantages in the league. Their strength of double up matches is neutral with return games against stronger opponents Fremantle, Melbourne and Western Bulldogs cancelled out by return games against the weaker GWS, North Melbourne and St Kilda. It could be a tough year for the rebuilding Hawks who have the third toughest schedule.
SYDNEY
Premiership Winner: $11
Top 4: $2.65
Top 8: $1.42
To miss the finals: $2.75
The Swans are the biggest losers of the fixture with an extremely tough schedule of double up matches. Geelong, Richmond, Melbourne and Fremantle are all expected to be vying for top 4 and top 8 spots with GWS and Gold Coast not exactly cellar dwellers. The draw has seen the Swans drift from $9 out to $12.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Premiership Winner: $51
Top 4: $15
Top 8: $8
To miss the finals: $1.06
One of the weakest net home ground advantages in the league. Influenced by three games at Manuka Oval where they do not enjoy as strong a home ground advantage as Giants Stadium. GWS also have two away trips to Adelaide and one to Perth, giving up a very strong home ground advantage in those fixtures. Their opponent strength of double up matches is neutral with games against strong Carlton, Sydney and Western Bulldogs offset by return matches versus weaker teams including Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn. Toughest schedule.
— ALL ODDS PROVIDED BY TAB —
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