AFL draft 2015: Pick 6 cursed, pick 56 lucky — every draft pick rated

WILL your club get lucky in this year’s draft? Not if it has pick 6, if history is a guide. Pick 35 is no good either, but pick 56 always delivers. A closer look at the history of every pick.

Patrick Karnezis retired after 25 games in four seasons. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

WILL your club get lucky at this year’s draft?

While recruiters watch hours of vision of draft hopefuls and pore over mountains of GPS data, we’ve gone straight to the draft itself to find out which picks tend to produce guns, and which don’t.

We’re the first to admit there is no science to back any of this up, but one clear fact* emerges after looking at 29 years of drafting — pick 6 is definitely cursed.

IS YOUR CLUB HOLDING A LUCKY OR CURSED PICK? SCROLL DOWN FOR A FULL BREAKDOWN

It may be a coveted top-10 selection, but players taken at pick 6 play an average of 53 games each. To put that into perspective, pick 5 players average 106 senior appearances.

Only four players taken at pick 6 have reached 100 games — Chris Yarran, Kepler Bradley, Steven Salopek and James Walker. After dominating the 2004 draft, Hawthorn had pick 6 in 2005 and 2006 and chose Mitch Thorp and Beau Dowler, who combined for 18 games. Pick 6 has never produced a premiership player and can claim just one best-and-fairest, won by Chad Wingard.

Compare that to the resume of pick 7 — 17 premiership medals, six best-and-fairests and two Rising Star swards thanks to big draft hits including Joel Selwood, Andrew Mackie, Chris Johnson, David Hale and Leon Cameron.

Mitch Thorp shot a duck on a Hawthorn training camp in the Northern Territory for some reason.

A closer look (possibly too close) at every draft pick — there have been 2434 of them — show you don’t want pick 6, pick 4 is also dodgy and pick 17 isn’t great, either.

Much better news if you have pick 56, which is historically the 15th best selection based on average games played.

That’s some consolation for Gold Coast, which currently holds both 6 and 56 in the draft order, although that is likely to change on draft night when clubs bid for academy selections.

And despite its knockers, pick 1 comes out on top in our rankings with an average of 144 games per player.

* Not an actual fact (probably)

FEELING LUCKY

PICK 1

The highest games average (144) means getting in first is worth it, even if there are only three premiership players taken at No.1. Carlton already has three pick 1s on its list — Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer — and is set to add a fourth next week.

PICK 13

Statistically the seventh most successful pick with an average of 103 games. Shane Crawford and Nick Dal Santo are already in the 300-game club and Bob Murphy is about to join them.

PICK 56

The bolter, jumping to 15th spot on the all-time list. Stars taken at pick 56 include Ryan O’Keefe, Andrew Dunkley, Daniel Cross, Daniel Bradshaw and Joel Patfull.

PICK 40

Bats well above its weight, cracking the top 20 for average games. Got a big leg-up from father-son rules that allowed stars like Jobe Watson and Gary Ablett to be taken this low for years.

PICK 87

Comes in at No.28 on the all-time list. Pick 87 guns include Damien Hardwick, James McDonald and Michael Barlow. This year the Dogs hold it.

PICK 79

Just behind 87 and almost 50 places above its standing, thanks mainly to a skinny Ainslie teenager named James Hird.

PICKS 124, 106, 105

All crack the top 10 for average games based on one superstar selection — Chris Grant at 105 and Ashley McIntosh at 106. Brayden Lyle was the only pick 124 ever and he played 116 games.

Ryan O’Keefe was a steal for the Swans at pick 56.

ARE THEY CURSED?

PICK 6

Plummets down the order to No.55 based on average games played. Pick 6 misses include Mitch Thorp, Beau Dowler and Damian Cupido. Jury still out on Reece Conca and Gary Rohan.

PICK 35

This pick has been used in every draft but has an average of just 27 games, ranked 98th. Eleven players taken at pick 35 played one game or fewer and former Tiger toiler Mark Chaffey holds the games record (166).

PICK 17

Slides to 32 despite James Kelly playing 273 matches. Recent busts Josh Simpson and Sam Blease and injury-cursed pair Daniel Menzel and Clay Smith bring the average down.

PICK 4

Drops out of the top 10 with an average of 96 games. Richard Tambling, Cale Morton, Luke Livingston and Jimmy Toumpas were taken at pick 4 and struggled to live up to the hype. Bombers beware.

PICK 25

Ranked 49th on games average. Essendon will be hoping this year’s pick 25 fares better than Patrick Karnezis, Adam Hartlett and Spencer White.

Patrick Karnezis retired after 25 games in four seasons. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

THE FULL FIRST ROUND

PICK 1 (Carlton)

The most successful pick by games played, proving clubs don’t get it wrong even if there have been a few howlers (think Richard Lounder in 1987 — nice work, Tigers). The first ever No. 1 pick Martin Leslie (1986) set the tone, winning the Bears best-and-fairest in 1990.

While just three No.1 picks have played in a premiership — Luke Hodge (2001), Drew Banfield (1992) and Des Headland (1998) — 11 players called out first on draft night have gone on to win a club B&F including Brett Deledio (2004), Jeff White (1994), Brendon Goddard (2002) and Blues Marc Murphy (2005) and Bruce Gibbs (2006).

There is yet to be a 300-gamer from the pick 1 club but Riewoldt is set to become the first in Round 2 next year. Adam Cooney (2008) is the only pick 1 Brownlow medallist.

PICK 2 (Brisbane)

The pick 2 resume reads 11 premierships, eight best-and-fairests and a Rising Star Award with names including Nigel Lappin (1993), Brad Ottens (1997), Luke Ball (2001), Jarryd Roughead (2004), Trent Cotchin (2007) and Daniel Wells (2002) all taken here.

PICK 3 (Melbourne)

Despite its well publicised draft failures, Melbourne has a reasonable record at pick 3, taking Steven Febey (1986), Darren Kowal (1991), Colin Sylivia (2003) and Angus Brayshaw (2014) at this selection in the past.

The pick 3 silverware cabinet isn’t extensive, supplied mainly by Norm Smith medallist Shannon Grant (1994) and superstar Chris Judd (2001) who claimed two Brownlows, another Norm Smith, two premierships and five best-and-fairests, among other accolades.

PICK 4 (Essendon)

Matthew Pavlich (1999) is the flag-bearer for pick 4 with 335 games and six best-and-fairest awards, but Norm Smith medallist Peter Matera (1989), triple premiership Lion Justin Leppitsch (1992) and Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy (2005) are a handy support act. Essendon has had pick 4 twice, selecting Scott Lucas in 1994 and Mark Bolton in 1997.

Scott Lucas lived up to the pick 4 hype.

PICK 5 (Essendon)

There’s a good chance the player taken at pick 5 this year will win at least one best-and-fairest if history is a guide. Past pick 5 B&F winners include Jarrad McVeigh (2002), Travis Boak (2006), Ben Cunnington (2009), Lance Franklin (2004), Joel Smith (1994) and Scott Pendlebury (2005), who this year won his fourth Copeland Trophy. Luke Power (1997) never claimed a Merrett-Murray Medal but finished in the top five every year from 2003-10.

PICK 6 (Gold Coast)

Just four players taken at pick 6 have made it to 100 games, with Docker James Walker (1997) holding the games record, just ahead of Chris Yarran (2008) and Steven Salopek (2002). Only one pick 6 has failed to play a game — Paul Burton, selected by Sydney in 1991 — but another 11 failed to reach 50.

PICK 7 (Melbourne)

A stack of silverware in the pick 7 cabinet including 17 premiership medals, six best-and-fairests and two Rising Star swards, thanks to Joel Selwood (2006), Andrew Mackie (2002), Chris Johnson (1993), David Hale (2001), Josh Carr (1998), Leon Cameron (1988), Rhys Palmer (2007) and Daniel Rich (2008). This is Melbourne’s first crack at the coveted selection — can they cash it in?

PICK 8 (Carlton)

The Blues have never previously held pick 8. Jude Bolton (1998) is the games record-holder with 325 including two flags and Cats Jimmy Bartel (1001) and Joel Corey (1999) add a combined premierships, 559 games, Brownlow and Norm Smith Medal.

PICK 9 (Adelaide)

Ranks 12th for average games, with Chad Cornes (1997) the only pick 9 to play 200 games. The Crows have never had pick 9.

PICK 10 (GWS)

Luke McPharlin holds the games record for pick 10 with 256, ahead of 200-gamers Shane O’Bree (1997), Simon Prestigiacomo (1995) and Nathan Brown (1996).

PICK 11 (Carlton)

Triple club B&F winners Brad Johnson (1993), Lenny Hayes (1998) and Darren Glass (1999) were all taken at pick 11. Carlton has had pick 11 twice, using it to select Troy Menzel (2012) and Trent Sporn (2000).

PICK 12 (Richmond)

Good news Tiger fans — this pick is a flag factory, producing 14 premierships. Shaun Burgoyne (2000) and Cyril Rioli (2007) have won four flags each, Gavin Wanganeen (1989) won two (plus a Brownlow), Chris Scott (1993) won two as a player and another as a coach, and Adam Ramanauskas (1998) and James Frawley (2006) are also members of the premiership club. The pick 12 club at Tigerland already includes Ben Lennon (2013) and Corey Ellis (2014).

The Hawks got pick 12 right in 2007, taking Cyril Rioli. Picture: Alex Coppel

PICK 13 (Adelaide)

This pick has provided two current captains — Bob Murphy (1999) and Shannon Hurn (2005), plus Tom Lynch (2008), who filled in at Gold Coast for much of the year. And how long before Patrick Cripps (2013) takes the reins at Carlton?

Shane Crawford (1991) is the most successful pick 13 in terms of longevity, playing 305 games, but he’s about to be overtaken by Murphy and Nick Dal Santo (2001). Adelaide used this pick to recruit Rising Star winner Daniel Talia in 2009.

PICK 14 (St Kilda)

The Saints have never had a pick 14. Grant Birchall (2005) holds the games record with 216.

PICK 15 (Hawthorn)

This pick has produced four 200-game players: Scott Camporeale (1994), Brady Rawlings (1998), Max Hudghton (1996) and Troy Chaplin (2003).

PICK 16 (Gold Coast)

Crow Scott Thompson (2000) holds the games record with 285, but he played just 39 of those at Melbourne before being traded (oops).

PICK 17 (North Melbourne)

Geelong has been the king of pick 17, using it to recruit James Kelly (2001), Harry Taylor (2007) and Daniel Menzel (2009), plus Peter Street in 1998. The Kangas have had two shots at pick 17, taking Shaun Atley (2010) and Scott Welsh (1995).

PICK 18 (Hawthorn)

The Hawks have only had pick 18 once before, taking injury-cursed premiership ruckman Max Bailey in 2005. Anthony Stevens (1988) is the most successful pick 18, playing 292 games including two premierships.

SOME OTHER QUIRKY PICKS

PICK 33 (Sydney)

The Swans will be hoping this year’s pick 33 follows the premiership tradition of this selection, which has delivered 11 flags — four from Martin Pike (2000) and three each from Shaun Hart (1989) and Bradley Hill.

PICK 34 (GWS)

Players taken at pick 34 have a great record of making Grand Finals — but not so great once they get there. The 29 players selected here have played in a combined 18 deciders for six wins and two draws. Liam Shiels (2008) delivered three flags and Matt Spangher (2005), Sean Dempster (2002) and Craig Kelly (1986) one each. Shiels, Ryan Lonie (2000) and Daryn Cresswell (1988) all played in losing GFs, Dempster has played in three defeats and a draw at St Kilda while Leon Davis (1999) played in four Grand Finals for one tie.

PICK 36 (Sydney)

Sam Mitchell (2001) is the clear success story at pick 36, playing 285 games — 151 more than the next best, Crow Rhett Biglands (36).

PICK 38 (Brisbane)

Hopefully this year’s pick 38 will steer clear of controversy. Brendan Fevola (1998), Dayle Garlett (2013) and Travis Tuck (2005) weren’t so lucky.

PICK 42 (Brisbane)

The Lions could follow tradition by picking a player with two first names here. Jack Steven (2007), Matthew Dennis (1997) and Luke Mitchell (2010) were all taken at 42.

PICK 43 (GWS)

Keep an eye on the post-goal celebrations of whoever the Giants take here. Pick 43 success stories Adam Goodes (1997) and Mark “rifle man” Williams (2000) have both caused a stir.

No ducks died after this Mark Williams goal.

PICK 46 (Melbourne)

Good news for Demon fans — this pick has produced five premiership medals, via Ben Stratton (2009) and David King (1993).

PICK 47 (North Melbourne)

North’s four previous pick 47s have averaged 111 games each — nearly all of them by Brent Harvey (1995), with Ben Brown (2013) contributing 33 and Nick Lowther (1998) and Mitch Wilkins (2012) none.

PICK 49 (Port Adelaide)

Will Port go for a player with a tasty surname? Simon Garlick (1993) and Daniel Currie (2006) were both taken at 49.

PICK 54 (Sydney)

The Swans will be hoping for better luck in their sixth shot at pick 54 with their five previous recruits at this pick playing an average of two games for the club — nine of them coming from Jarrad Sundqvist (2000)

PICK 71 (Adelaide)

History says try a full-back at pick 71. Brian Lake (2001) and Andrew Kellaway (1997) were both plucked with this late selection.

Andrew Kellaway won Richmond’s best-and-fairest in 2000.

PICK 73 (North Melbourne)

If there’s a player with the surname McDonald in this year’s draft pool, this could be his moment. Beau McDonald (1997) played in two premierships for Brisbane and Anthony McDonald (1990) played 104 games for Melbourne.

PICK 79 (Gold Coast)

This has been a good pick to select players from the ACT with James Hird (Ainslie, 1990) and Aaron Hamill (Tuggeranong, 1994) both taken at 79 and playing a combined 443 AFL games.

PICK 84 (Collingwood)

Two 300-gamers have been picked at 84 — but both were well past their best by that time. Doug Hawkins (1994) extended his career at Fitzroy — playing another 21 matches to take his career tally to 350 — and Carlton used pick 84 to draft Mick Martyn in 2002. He played 13 games for the Blues to finish on 300. This pick has also been handy for brothers of bigger names including Brett Goodes (2013) and Damien Gaspar (1992).

PICK 87 (Western Bulldogs)

Clubs have called pass seven times on pick 87 — the most of any pick

PICK 105 (Western Bulldogs)

A nice nod to history by the Dogs, who made this the highest pick to deliver a genuine star when they selected a 15-year-old kid from Daylesford called Chris Grant in 1988. (Ashley McIntosh was taken by West Coast at 106 in 1989 as a father-son pick). Grant went on to play 341 games, win two best-and-fairests and was named All-Australian three times. The only other pick 105 to play an AFL game is another Dog, Jason Johannison, who was upgraded from the rookie list using that selection in 2012.

PICK 124 (Richmond)

Brayden Lyle (1992) has the distinction of being the highest ever draft pick and the only pick 124 ever. He played 26 games for the Eagles and another 90 for Port Adelaide, and represented SA in 1997.

Originally published as AFL draft 2015: Pick 6 cursed, pick 56 lucky — every draft pick rated