AFL 2024: How Collingwood can still make finals

The Magpies’ 66-point loss to the Hawks put a huge dent in their September hopes, but they’re not dead yet. See who Collingwood need to barrack against and how they can still make the eight.

Collingwood could miss finals. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Collingwood entered Saturday’s contest full of optimism that its premiership defence hopes were still alive.

But an 11-goal loss to the rising Hawks has made the path to finals a muddier one than expected.

While the Pies did start the season 0-3, they did go undefeated the next eight games and flirted with the top four at certain times this season.

But a deep injury list hasn’t helped the chase for a second flag, and Collingwood finds itself 13th on the ladder with five weeks to go.

But while they are five places removed from the top eight, the Magpies are only six points behind Essendon in eighth, and are still in the hunt for an elimination final berth.

Can Collingwood still play finals? Picture: Getty Images

HOW DO THEY GET THERE?

The equation is pretty simple: just keep winning.

Collingwood cannot afford any major slip ups in the run home, and only one week away from the MCG will certainly help.

That’s not saying the Pies need to go undefeated to finish the season, but they need to be as close to perfect as possible.

It helps that there is just eight points separating the Giants in fifth and the Pies in 13th, but percentage will certainly play a part in the final weeks of the season.

The three-week stretch from round 21 will define their season, with games against Carlton, Sydney and Brisbane in that span.

Entering the Carlton game with a comfortable win over Richmond in round 20 will be crucial for the Pies, with recent form suggesting Collingwood could claim an important scalp.

In the past five games between the sides, Collingwood has won four of them, including a six-point victory in round 8 this year.

Carlton’s form in recent weeks would give Collingwood fans hope, with a 19-point victory over North Melbourne on Sunday their only scalp in the past three rounds, with another tough clash against Port Adelaide to come.

If Collingwood beats Richmond and Carlton, then knocks over a red-hot Brisbane side at the MCG or upsets Sydney, the Magpies will likely enter round 24 outside the top 8 on percentage, behind Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide, who both face tough opponents in the final round of the season.

A win over Melbourne, who’s season is likely over at that point, would be enough to sneak into an elimination final if either the Bulldogs lose to GWS, Port Adelaide can’t beat Fremantle at home, or if the win over the Demons is enough to jump roughly 3 per cent.

The Magpies were smashed by the Hawks. Picture: Getty Images

WHO TO BARRACK AGAINST

It will be a tumultuous fortnight for Collingwood fans in rounds 21 and 22.

The Pies will go from barracking for Hawthorn in round 21, who just smashed them by 66 points on Saturday, to barracking for major rival Carlton to beat the Hawks in round 22.

If the Hawks beat GWS in round 21 and lose to Carlton in round 22, it will open up an extra spot inside the top 8 that Collingwood could move into.

If the Hawks win both games, they’ll become another rival for the finals spot the Pies want, while two losses gives the Giants an extra win to secure their September plans.

It’s even worse if Hawthorn loses to the Giants but beats Carlton, because both sides then are pushing for a top eight spot in the final weeks of the season.

FINAL ROUND MAYHEM

The AFL has planned the perfect final round of the season.

As the ladder stands currently, third is facing eighth, 10th is playing 13th, ninth will face fifth, and fourth plays seventh.

By the time round 24 kicks off, the ladder positions will be very different, but the closeness of the teams will be the same.

Craig McRae has work to do to keep the Pies alive by Round 24. Picture: Getty Images

It’s expected the finals picture will only have five ‘safe’ teams, with at least five, potentially seven, other sides fighting for the final three spots.

Collingwood will have a must-win clash against Melbourne at the MCG, with a loss absolutely confirming a September without finals.

But even a win won’t necessarily get them in, with the Magpies shaping to need Brisbane to beat Essendon, Fremantle to topple Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs to defeat the Giants.

It’s a precarious position to be in for the Magpies.

Originally published as AFL 2024: How Collingwood can still make finals