AFL 2023: Winners, losers of trades as draft pick values become clear

The Hawks were so intent on getting Josh Weddle last year they traded up to pick 18 to get him. But as the picks they gave up continue to increase in value, did they give away too much?

Harry Himmelberg and Max Gruzewski during a GWS Giants training session. Picture: Phil Hillyard

As Hawthorn’s newest running man Josh Weddle burns up the wide open spaces of the MCG the vast price his club paid in draft collateral is only now being revealed.

Weddle looks like he could be anything.

Which is exactly why the Hawks traded for Sydney’s pick 18 to secure him last November after also landing Cam Mackenzie at pick 7 earlier in the draft.

After peeling off a series of stunning time-trial wins over summer, Weddle has a licence to carve through the corridor on surging runs that spark the Hawks’ offence.

But as the ladder position of AFL clubs comes closer to being set in stone, clubs across the competition are counting the cost – or giddily death-riding rivals.

Hawthorn were so keen to secure Weddle they gave up last year’s pick 27 and their 2023 second and third-rounders to Sydney so they could take the running defender before he came off the board.

But with Hawthorn almost certain to finish third-last, they are now without two picks which would have fallen at pick 21 and 39 this year.

The trade points value of pick 18 is 985 points compared to 2027 points for 21, 27 and 39.

So as good as Weddle is, they gave up twice the value of pick 18 to secure him.

Josh Weddle has had a great debut season for Hawthorn. Picture: Phil Hillyard

In an AFL world where clubs constantly swap picks back and forth, those 2027 total points represent the value of the No.4 pick.

The Hawks do have their own pick 3 for November’s draft and the Dogs’ 2023 second-rounder as they attempt to take an elite early selection and secure father-son Will McCabe.

McCabe, a hugely athletic 197cm key tall, is on phantom draft boards around picks 15-17, so the Hawks will still find a way to get two top-20 talents.

But a club that has also handed its fourth-round pick to the Roos in the Lloyd Meek trade will be challenged for draft picks if it does want to secure an out-of-contract tall like Esava Ratugolea or Jake Riccardi.

In the lead-in to last year’s draft 36 selections from the 2023 national draft changed hands between rival clubs.

Some were throwaway future fourth-rounders, but for clubs attempting to stockpile early draft picks the eventual ladder position of the clubs those picks are tied to can make a world of difference.

Here are some of the continuing storylines to watch in the countdown to the end of the home-and-away season.

WHY DOES IT ALWAYS HAPPEN TO THE ROOS?

North Melbourne knew Port Adelaide might improve when as part of a mega-trade it handed over Jason-Horne Francis and the No.1 overall pick for selections 2, 3 and the Power’s 2023 first-rounder.

Melbourne, meanwhile, secured the Dockers’ 2023 first-rounder as part of the Luke Jackson trade.

The Roos also traded their 2023 second-rounder for Brayden George, an explosive forward with top-five potential before a knee reconstruction which the Roos knew would see him out of action for 2023.

This year the Power have thrived and the Dockers have flopped.

North Melbourne was hoping Port Adelaide would slide this year to get the best return for the Jason Horne-Francis trade. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

So while Melbourne has the Dockers’ No.4 overall pick, the Roos don’t have their own second-rounder and the Port Adelaide first-rounder is at pick 17.

The Roos also gave away their fourth-rounder, but have Melbourne’s third-rounder and their own 2023 third-round pick.

WHERE DID ALL THE CATS’ PICKS GO?

Geelong will find a way to pull a rabbit out of the hat to continue stockpiling talent, but last year the Cats traded their 2023 second-rounder in a Lions pick swap, their third-rounder in the Jack Bowes deal with Gold Coast, and their fourth-rounder in that Lions deal.

The Cats would feel vindicated on the deal that saw them give up 2019’s pick 16 Cooper Stephens and last year’s pick 25 for Ollie Henry.

Henry has 27 goals in 16 games and Stephens still hasn’t debuted for the Hawks.

The Pies got Geelong’s No.25 pick and Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell in that deal, so Collingwood would feel they got maximum compensation for Henry and have already filled his role in their forward line.

Tim Taranto has been a great pick-up for the Tigers. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

WIN-WIN FOR GWS AND RICHMOND

Richmond’s 2023 first-round pick is in the grasp of GWS because of the Jacob Hopper deal, but both clubs might still benefit from the Tim Taranto trade.

GWS secured picks 12 and 19 from Richmond and used 12 in a package with their No.3 selection to trade up for No.1 overall pick Aaron Cadman.

Pick 19 became marking forward Max Gruzewski, who dislocated his kneecap over summer but is putting together a sneaky good year in the VFL.

He has 26 goals in 14 games so if the Giants can turn an extra midfielder into picks that secured Cadman and Gruzewski their key tall stocks for the next decade might be locked away.

Originally published as AFL 2023: Winners, losers of trades as draft pick values become clear