AFL 2023: Ultimate form guide for first week of finals

What team changes are likely for week one of finals? Who hits September in form – and what issues need to be fixed? With the fixture locked in, this is everything you need to know.

Max Gawn of the Demons and Mason Cox of the Magpies.

The finals are here.

September kicks off with four huge matches and while teams have two weeks to prepare, there is a lot to think about including some possible big moves at the selection table.

Here’s where all four games stand.

Thursday, September 7, 7.20pm

First Qualifying Final, MCG

COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE

WHO IS IN BETTER FORM?
Craig McRae says he doesn’t believe in form. Based on the numbers, that might be a good thing. The past six weeks has the Demons ranked No.4 for contested ball and No.6 for clearance differential. The Pies are 12th and 10th respectively and, despite restricting Essendon to three goals on Friday, they are 14th for points conceded. Conversely the Dees are scoring fluently – No.3 for points in that time – and Bayley Fritsch’s five-goal return packs them with extra firepower.

WHOSE STARS WILL BE DIMMED?
Clayton Oliver has been tagged by Finn Maginness and Callum Mills, and Christian Salem was shut down by Ryan Clarke on Sunday. Then again, Steven May and Jake Lever loom as rebounding weapons against Dan McStay and Brody Mihocek. All season McRae has been asked whether he would tag Nick Daicos. Now the question is whether he will follow the form of rivals and put the clamps on Oliver and Salem.

Will Collingwood try to shut down Clayton Oliver? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

SELECTION MAIL
Brayden Maynard will hand the captaincy back to Darcy Moore, who is certain to return from a hamstring tweak, while Beau McCreery is available from suspension. Can he play in the same forward line as Bobby Hill and Jack Ginnivan? Jake Melksham’s shattering potential ACL injury could open the door for five-goal VFL forward Tom McDonald to return for what would be his first game since round 11. As for Brodie Grundy, his hopes of becoming a premiership player hinge on Casey Scorpions going back-to-back or Max Gawn breaking down.

SAM’S VERDICT
Demons by 18 points

Friday, September 8, 7.50pm

First Elimination Final, MCG

7.50pm, Friday, September 8

CARLTON v SYDNEY

ARE THE BLUES THE BEST TEAM IN IT?
Patrick Cripps will run out for his maiden final 3581 days after he was drafted. Most Blues are September virgins, but playing in front of more than 80,000 fans four times this year will help settle any nerves. And then there is their formline. Since round 14 – albeit parking Sunday night, where the stakes were meaningless – the Blues are No.1 for points scored and for points against as well as contested possession, ground ball and clearance differential. Cripps’ sidekick has been George Hewett, who in rounds 22-23 had 38 contested possessions, 31 ground balls and 16 tackles. On Sunday night they kicked five goals from stoppages in the first half alone against GWS. Over the past three months they are the hottest team by a long, long way.

Patrick Cripps is ready for the September stage. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

CAN HEENEY REPEAT CRIPPS CLAMP?
Isaac Heeney sat down with assistant coach Dean Cox and Luke Parker for a crash course on stopping Patrick Cripps before round 11. Heeney went toe-to-toe with the Brownlow Medallist and won six clearances to Cripps’ five and laid 10 tackles to his six. The Swans were gone after round 17, stuck in the bottom four, when Heeney was a whipping boy. He has epitomised the soar into September. Heeney started the season kicking 15.14 and since then he has 15.5 (which was not helped by 0.2 on Sunday) while Errol Gulden is playing like Nick Daicos without the plaudits. He had 42 touches and two goals on Sunday. The question the Blues might ponder is who Callum Mills goes to? Mills shutdown Jordan Dawson last week and Clayton Oliver on Sunday.

SELECTION MAIL
Dynamic goalkicker Tom Papley ran at 90 per cent on Saturday and will return while Cripps is a certainty to slot back in. Blake Acres’ sore shoulder also won’t stop him from lining up in consecutive finals series.

SAM’S VERDICT
Blues by 18 points

Saturday, September 9, 3.20pm

Second Elimination Final, MCG

ST KILDA v GWS

DOES ANYBODY RESPECT THE SAINTS?
Internally they suspect not, but as Ross Lyon said a month ago “the ladder does not lie”. Since round 19 the Saints have recaptured their early-season defensive form. They are No.3 for points conceded and fifth for opposition scores per entry. They are 0-5 against top-four teams, but have beaten the other three clubs who have secured an elimination final place. The Saints’ doctor might need to prescribe Jimmy Webster some sleeping pills because he has 13 nights to ponder playing on Toby Greene. Good luck, Jimmy.

HOW IMPORTANT WAS COREY DURDIN’S SNAPPED GOAL?
Lyon’s “anywhere, anytime” mantra was set to be tested when the Giants briefly snatched a home final on the live ladder. That was until Carlton’s Corey Durdin flipped their ladder spots with a late goal on Sunday night. But for this Giants side … who cares? An undersold part of their story this year is their never-say-die attitude. They’ve played at 12 different venues and have powered home against all odds – often down on rotations and in wild weather conditions – against Adelaide, the Dogs, Geelong and Melbourne. Adam Kingsley has a strong case to be coach of the year.

Max King’s return will give the Saints a big boost. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images

SELECTION MAIL
Max King will replace Jack Hayes or Cooper Sharman while Seb Ross might come in for Hunter Clark, with Ryan Byrnes the possible substitute option. Josh Battle suffered another concussion, but with 14 days to recover he should be OK to play his 100th game. Anthony Caminiti is another who will be considered. The big selection call – particularly with King’s likely inclusion – will be on All-Australian full-back Sam Taylor, who was a late withdrawal on Sunday with hamstring tightness. Surely he plays and partners Jack Buckley in what has proved an unlikely but often unstoppable pairing behind the ball.

SAM’S VERDICT
Giants by 12 points

Saturday, September 9, 7.25pm

Second Qualifying Final, Gabba

BRISBANE v PORT ADELAID

WILL ROUND 1 LEAVE MENTAL SCARS?
The sole meeting between these clubs this year was back in round 1 – when Port Adelaide won contested ball by 33, ground ball gets by 15 and clearances by nine. They outscored the Lions 9.10 (54) to 2.3 (15) from stoppages. It was a coalface monstering and it rattled a Brisbane outfit that admitted it drank its own pre-season bathwater. But the Lions enter finals on a 9-2 run – and one of those losses was by one point – which is a much-improved form line from 12 months ago, when they won seven of their final 13 home-and-away games. Conversely, since round 18 the Power are 17th for opposition scores per entry and one of the worst teams at defending ball movement. There are alarm bells everywhere for Ken Hinkley’s mob.

Charlie Dixon will be available for the qualifying final. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

CAN THESE TEAMS WIN AT THE ’G?
Reckon this is one of footy’s falsest narratives. Yes, Brisbane’s recent record is 1-14 at the MCG … but they had the Dees on toast last month, kicked the first six goals against Richmond last year and then eliminated Melbourne at the ’G. Port was smacked by the Pies at the MCG this year, but has won its past two. Anyway, the winner of this clash won’t have to worry about jetting to Melbourne until grand final day, and after each travelling 12 times this year you cannot underestimate how important a month mainly spent in their own beds will be.

SELECTION MAIL
All eyes are on Port’s forward set-up. Todd Marshall’s hip is fine while Charlie Dixon and Scott Lycett are available. Can they play Marshall, Dixon, Jeremy Finlayson and Ollie Lord in a towering attack? The Lions are similarly healthy with Lincoln McCarthy’s calf setback not seen as an obstacle to lining up at the Gabba.

SAM’S VERDICT
Lions by 30 points

Originally published as AFL 2023: Ultimate form guide for first week of finals