AFL 2023: Predicted teams for week one of finals

Will Melbourne turn to Brodie Grundy, does Tom Jonas survive and who will make way for Carlton’s returning stars? See how every finalist could look.

Some of the big finals selection dilemmas.

Selection squeezes, tests of depth and races against time. Week 1 of the AFL finals will throw up a number of selection puzzles, dilemmas and headaches. We take you inside the burning issues at each club and give our take on the predicted line ups.

Brisbane boasts the most settled back six in the AFL with four of the starters playing every game this season, while Payne and Coleman have missed just three matches combined. And yet that’s where the biggest question lies – can the Lions’ defence hold up under finals pressure?

Will Ashcroft’s injury hurt the midfield rotation but if any side has the depth to cover, it’s Brisbane, and the forward line – when accurate – is arguably the most damaging in the AFL.

Jack Gunston’s knee will be a watch to see if he can get it right in time to feature in September, but he may not have a position to return to. Lincoln McCarthy is expected back from a calf injury for the first final and the Lions should have a mostly settled 23 to face Port.

– Callum Dick

A selection squeeze is on at the Blues ahead of the club’s first final since 2013.

Harry McKay didn’t really work as a back-up ruck in the final round, so it wouldn’t surprise if Marc Pittonet came back as the No.1 ruckman.

Captain Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty are ready to return after missing the last game of the regular season with soreness, while wingman Blake Acres has been cleared of any serious collarbone damage and should be fit to retain his spot.

Dow would be unlucky to miss after playing the final seven matches of the home-and-away season, but there are a few other midfielders in front of him.

– Chris Cavanagh

The biggest question at Collingwood before a huge qualifying final will be how tall to go in the front half.

Craig McRae likes playing both rucks Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox, but it’s hard to see both playing alongside Dan McStay and Brody Mihocek when all of Bobby Hill, Jack Ginnivan and Beau McReery are fit.

Cox is the odd man out and McStay can cover the back-up minutes. The sticking point will be whether the Pies think they have enough aerial power against Demon intercept aces Steven May and Jake Lever.

There are easier decisions down back, with Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy automatic selections with Billy Frampton out, and Oleg Markov moved to the sub job, with Will Hoskin-Elliott surviving in the starting 22.

Collingwood has all-but ruled out Nick Daicos and will hope to give him an extra week off to get fully fit after a qualifying final win.

– Josh Barnes

The Giants will be sweating on Sam Taylor’s hamstring injury, but Jack Buckley impressed as cover against the Blues. The other big concern is Toby Bedford’s looming suspension, but the Giants are fighting the charge in the hope he will be available for the elimination final.

Finn Callaghan (achilles) and Xavier O’Halloran (thumb) are both nearing returns after lengthy spells on the sidelines and will give the Giants another boost. If Bedford is ruled out, O’Halloran makes sense as the like-for-like forward replacement.

Depending on the type of sub player they want, Ryan Angwin could be their ball-winner, while Nick Haynes would provide more defensive stability and marking power.

– Lachlan McKirdy

Coach Simon Goodwin has conceded the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy experiment has not played out as he had hoped, but a heartbreaking ACL injury to Jake Melksham means it will be difficult not to revisit the ruck combination after his dominant 35-disposal, three-goal VFL performance last weekend.

Tom McDonald is the other option to replace Melksham after he kicked five goals in the same game, and would allow the Demons to keep the closest possible forward structure to the past few weeks with Jacob van Rooyen fulfilling the back-up ruck duties.

James Jordon should return to the 23 in place of last week’s sub Bailey Laurie.

– Ed Bourke

Star forward Max King will return to face GWS after he was managed against the Lions, with Jack Hayes looming as the one to miss out.

Cooper Sharman was subdued against Brisbane but will be better for the week off after niggling injuries in recent weeks, and will have a big role to perform on a star Giants interceptor in Harry Himmelberg or Sam Taylor.

Even if Dougal Howard recovers from his wrist injury in time, expect Ross Lyon to stick with Zaine Cordy in defence, while Seb Ross’s history of hamstring injuries this year means the Saints will be cautious in the first final.

– Ed Bourke

The Swans appear to be hitting finals with a relatively clean bill of health. Tom Papley should return to take on the Blues after he was held back for the round 24 clash, while Justin McInerney is also nearing a return from a serious calf injury.

The balance of the forward line will be key to see how the Swans get the best out of the McLean-McDonald-Amartey combination. However, they’ve got plenty of midfield talent and will back themselves to outrun any opponent.

The big concern is the back six – while it looks strong now, an injury to a Rampe or McCartin could seriously hurt their finals chances.

– Lachlan McKirdy

What does the Power do with captain Tom Jonas? He has announced that he will retire at the end of the season and if Trent McKenzie can prove his fitness then Jonas’ spot in the 22 could be in trouble.

The Power will also be praying that Scott Lycett is good to go after Sam Hayes was subbed out of the win over Richmond after being soundly beaten in the ruck.

Todd Marshall will return to the forward line but there are question marks around Charlie Dixon, with the spearhead still in a protective boot in the rooms on Sunday. He looks to be a race against time to take on Brisbane. Veteran Travis Boak has been the sub on occasions this season but the Power might need his experience from the get-go.

– Simeon Thomas-Wilson

Originally published as AFL 2023: Predicted teams for week one of finals