Paul Williams: It’s time for Shorten to shape up or ship out

If the second week of the Opposition Leader’s campaign isn’t substantially better and stronger than what we saw in the first, then it could all be too late for Bill Shorten and the Labor Party, writes Paul Williams.

The world is moving in weird and unexpected ways.

The talking clock, Australia’s faceless telephonic friend always with the right time, will cease on October 1 after 66 years’ loyal service. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, the groovy digital alternative to hard cash so confidently touted as the future, now look decidedly passé. And NRL star Greg Inglis is retiring early at just 32. Add to that a federal election campaign where the major parties are defying the laws of electoral physics, and the world is suddenly a scary and unfamiliar place.

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Those laws, of course, dictate that a very average minority government, behind in more than 50 successive Newspolls — led by a PM yet to crystallise his own raison d’être for a leadership coup — should have no chance at returning to office.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten failed to cut through and convince voters last week. Picture: Kym Smith

On paper, this still appears true. Last week’s Newspoll, for example, continued to point to a modest after-preference swing to Labor (of about 2.5 per cent, or a little less than earlier polls) to give Bill Shorten the keys to The Lodge. Betting markets clearly agree: Labor is at $1.25 and the Coalition at an attractive $3.85.

But Newspoll’s 52 to 48 per cent after-preference split between Labor and the Coalition — normally enough to allow the frontrunner to put the champagne on ice right now — doesn’t tell the whole story. In fact, far from it.

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For one, those numbers mask the fact first preference support has surged to 39 per cent each for Labor and the Coalition. That’s very bizarre. After all, the physics of politics have shown us for 20 years that major parties inevitably lose ground to minor players at each and every election.

But this campaign looks like bucking that trend, especially among those voters — who once flirted with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, among other flimsy populists — who now turn their back on divided, personality-led parties clearly unable to govern themselves, let alone the nation.

Despite the country still having its reservations about Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister hada relatively successful first week of his campaign. Picture: Gary Ramage

For another, Scott Morrison last week recorded, for the second time in a row, his equal best “preferred PM” rating of 46 per cent. The fact Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s own rating is locked permanently in the mid-30s — with more voters disapproving of Shorten’s leadership than approving it — suggests voters are yet to see Shorten as worthy of the top job.

Third, we’re seeing electoral waters run up hill in seats as varied as the Labor-held Bass in Tasmania (where polling puts the Liberals on 54 per cent), and in the very marginal Labor seat of Lindsay in western Sydney — a political barometer for working Australia — where Labor is clearly struggling to cut through.

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Labor seats like these should never be on the Coalition’s radar after two terms of ordinary government punctuated by leadership brawls. But yet, they are. So what’s going on?

Could it be, as many have argued, that, despite the polls, undecided Australian voters will baulk at Shorten at the last minute? Or is it that, like Liberal Opposition John Hewson discovered in 1993, no matter how mediocre an incumbent is, an opposition can still lose after a clunky campaign that touts confusing or downright unpopular taxes?

Now in week two, the election is still too early to call. Picture: Kym Smith

Either way, Shorten’s poor first week on the campaign trail, one that fell far short of colleagues’ expectations, could cost Labor significant support. First there was the Labor Leader’s unwillingness — or inability — to give details as to how Labor plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45 per cent within 11 years will affect the national economy. Then, there was Shorten’s commitment that Labor had “no plans to increase taxes on superannuation”, despite its 2016 pledge to introduce new taxes on superannuation to generate an extra $30 billion in revenue. Worse still, Shorten got tetchy when cornered by journalists.

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Happily for Shorten, an old adage in Australian election campaigning says if you’re going to stuff up, do so in the first week so that you have three weeks to convince undecided voters that you deserve their confidence. That’s largely still true but, given that up to a third of voters will vote before May 18, with pre-poll opportunities opening next Monday, this week is a crucial last chance for Shorten.

If the Opposition Leader doesn’t emerge today fresh and rested from an Easter retreat to reset his campaign with bold announcements, then it could be too late. If Shorten doesn’t have Morrison back on the ropes by this time next week, then it will almost certainly be too late.

Labor is still more likely to form government after May 18 than not. But these are weird and wonderful times. Expect the unexpected.

Dr Paul Williams is a senior lecturer at Griffith University.