LNP’s Queensland win not a done deal just yet

While the next state election looks all but over for the Labor Party, the Coalition has a hard task ahead of itself in convincing voters not to go down the minor party route, writes Paul Williams.

The weekend’s Courier-Mail YouGov poll has finally confirmed what most Queenslanders already know: the Palaszczuk Government is struggling for credibility, for trust, and even for its own survival.

With Labor’s primary vote now slumped at 32 per cent (down three points since February and 3.4 since the election), the Government is not only going in the wrong direction, it’s getting dangerously close to irrelevance.

By contrast, the LNP’s primary vote of 37 per cent is moving so satisfyingly in the right direction — up two points since February and up 4.3 since the election — that Opposition leader Deb Frecklington must already be dot-pointing an election night victory speech.

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But the poll’s after-preference vote tells a different story of how the LNP must harvest a hell of a lot of preferences from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, Bob Katter’s Australian Party and — if it’s still around — Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party just to get over the line. It’s even more of a task when we remember the hordes of populist voters who preferenced Labor at the LNP’s expense in 2017.

With Labor’s primary vote now slumped at 32 per cent, the Government is only going in the wrong direction. Picture: Mark Cranitch

That’s why the poll’s after-preference vote is surprisingly close at just 51 to 49 in the LNP’s favour. Yes, any election today would see Labor lose six seats — all but one in the regions — and government in a 2.2 per cent swing. But that’s hardly a wipe out.

In fact, the 49-51 split is inside the poll’s margin of error and, even if accurate, certainly small enough for Labor to recover over the next 60 weeks before the 2020 election.

That fact alone is seen in Premier Palaszczuk’s wide grin as seating was fitted in Townsville’s North Queensland stadium — just in time to coincide with state parliament’s sitting in a city hosting two of Queensland’s most marginal Labor seats.

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Expect a lot more touchy-feely rhetoric everywhere north of Morayfield and west of Ipswich in a bid to re-engage regional Queensland. Expect also an increase in Labor’s after preference vote before October 2020.

But senior figures in each of the major parties tell a couple of other stories that, paradoxically, are in general agreement about what we can expect at the next election.

The recent YouGov poll found half of Queensland wants Trad dismissed. Picture: AAP/Glenn Hunt

A senior Labor figure, for example, told me Labor MPs are indeed concerned about the party’s primary vote but, given recent events — the Adani backflip, the Trad saga, leaked ASIO names, integrity questions in the Premier’s own office, hospital ramping and other own-goals — the after-preference vote was “better than expected”.

“I certainly don’t get a sense of panic [in the party],” the source said. “We can turn it around with a focus on jobs, health, education and infrastructure.”

But surely the Trad debacle is testing the patience and loyalty between, and within, Left and Right factions as unions call on Palaszczuk to remove the Deputy Premier?

“The party isn’t divided,” the figure said. “But clearly some [in the party room] want Trad to stay and others want her to go.”

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I was also told that, despite YouGov finding half of Queensland wanting Trad dismissed and another quarter demanding she be at least stripped of Cross River Rail responsibilities, there is no chance of Palaszczuk removing the Deputy Premier before the Crime and Corruption Commission acts.

Remarkably, a senior LNP figure gave a similar assessment of the weekend’s poll, with the figure conceding the mammoth task ahead given the Opposition’s own modest primary and after-preference vote tallies.

A senior LNP figure concedes the party and Frecklington has a mammoth task. Picture: AAP/Jono Searle

“We definitely still have work to do,” the source said. “Those figures paint a tale of woe for Palaszczuk, but also show we could struggle to win. We still have to convince a large chunk of the electorate.”

And while the source was adamant no one inside the party room is even thinking of challenging Frecklington, the figure conceded MPs were painfully aware of an opposition leader’s role to find “a balance between being relevant and hitting key messages”.

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The allusion to Frecklington’s energy and enthusiasm in fronting up for nightly news grabs, but missing the mark because she appears one-dimensional and pernickety, is not lost on the 34 per cent who still rate Palaszczuk the better premier, with 37 per cent of no opinion and just 29 per cent opting for Frecklington. The fact just 30 per cent of voters approve of the Opposition leader’s performance (the same number who disapprove) also speaks volumes.

Ultimately, Palaszczuk — despite her poor handling of the Trad affair — remains Labor’s best asset. And Frecklington, who looks good on paper, could yet become an LNP millstone.

We’ll know for sure in about 14 months.