Greens pick up big swings in seven Brisbane wards
The Greens claim they are on track to supersede Labor in council, but analysis of the 2020 election shows they picked up big swings in only seven wards this time.
South West
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The Greens claim they are on track to supersede Labor in council, but analysis of the 2020 election shows they picked up big swings in only seven wards this time.
The Gabba ward Councillor Trina Massey declared the Greens were on the brink of breaking the two-party system after “a quarter of Brisbane voted for the Greens”.
All wards with the sole exception of Calamvale recorded a Greens vote of more than 10 per cent, 10 wards recorded 25 per cent or more and six wards more than 30 per cent of the primary vote.
But an analysis of first preference votes in the 2020 poll and yesterday’s election, based on the count at 2pm on March 17, showed the party has edged forward.
There was no big leap, with double-digit swings in only five wards.
And it was helped by disastrous performances from sitting Labor councillors in two of those wards.
The Greens achieved little to no swing in seven wards — Bracken Ridge, Hamilton, Calamvale, Chandler, Pullenvale, Tennyson and The Gabba — although Cr Massey did well to achieve the same primary vote as Greens mayoral candidate Jonathan Sriranganathan.
He stepped down in March last year to focus on the city’s top job, giving her just 12 months to become known in the alternative heartland ward.
The Greens managed a swing of only 3-5 per cent in Deagon, Holland Park, Jamboree, MacGregor, Marchant, McDowall, Northgate, Runcorn, Walter Taylor and Paddington.
It was still hopeful of winning the last two from the LNP, although the count was still too close to be certain.
Labor insiders meanwhile claimed head office did not properly fund the campaign and did not even do internal polling.
Some believed that was why it could not tempt former State Government Sports Minister Kate Jones to run for mayor, with only two low-profile candidates in the preselection battle.
Lawyer Tracey Price was eventually preselected, but trailed Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner by a large margin in Sunday’s updated count.
Labor’s Sara Whitmee, who replaced veteran Wynnum Councillor Peter Cumming, managed only a dismal 31.3 per cent primary vote compared with 54.2 per cent for Cumming in 2020.
That was a factor in the Greens picking up a 5 per cent swing in Wynnum.
Another poor performance by Labor in Morningside, where incumbent Lucy Collier secured only 35.9 per cent of the primary vote, helped the Greens surge from 15.3 per cent in 2020 to 24.6 per cent as at Sunday’s count.
Collier last year replaced popular former ALP councillor for the ward, Kara Cook, who at one point was a rising star tipped for leadership of the party in Council.
Veteran Labor Councillor Charles Strunk also posted a shock result with only 39.2 per cent of the primary vote, while the Greens surged from 16.4 per cent in 2020 to 26.2 per cent this time.
Cr Strunk’s result was possibly hit by revelations that one of his ward staffers, single mother Nayda Hernandez, was dismissed five weeks before Christmas.
Ms Hernandez ran unsuccessfully as an Independent in the Inala state by-election.
The Greens’ biggest swings were all in “inner-ring’’ wards.
Wendy Aghdam blitzed Central with 35.2 per cent, up from the 27.2 per cent Cr Massey achieved in 2020 when she ran for the ward.
Kath Angus lived up to predictions in internal Greens polling conducted in February.
She increased the party’s primary vote in Coorparoo from 27.4 per cent in 2020 to 34.8 per cent, as of Sunday.
Quintessa Denniz almost doubled the Greens vote in Enoggera, another ward tipped by the party’s internal polling as a hot prospect.
As of Sunday’s count, she had 30.3 per cent, up from 16.1 per cent in 2020.
However, in 2020 Labor had a very strong candidate in Jonty Bush, who went on later that year to win the state seat of Cooper.
Two surprise big swings that could trouble the major parties were in The Gap, held by the LNP’s Steve Toomey, and Moorooka, held by veteran Labor Councillor Steve Griffiths.
Cr Griffiths comfortably won this time around, but the Greens lifted their primary vote from 20.2 per cent in 2020 to 28.8 per cent.
The Greens’ Ann Aitken took the party’s 16.6 per cent result in The Gap in 2020 to 29.4 per cent this time.
There was a notional 15.9 per cent swing to the Greens in Doboy, but only because it did not run a candidate in 2020.
Saturday’s poll saw the number of very safe wards continue a long-term decline, with fewer than 10 councillors now commanding more than 50 per cent of the primary vote.
Independent Nicole Johnston was again the most popular candidate, posting a staggering 73.4 per cent two-party preferred vote, similar to her 2020 result.
That made her the most popular councillor since 2012.
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