Redland slams state for ‘invalid’ population figures, reigniting feud over land banking claims

A bayside city, reprimanded for failing to update its housing strategy, has fired back at state government criticism, claiming it is well equipped to provide an extra 20,000 dwellings by 2046.

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher said the state had used the highest-level population predictions in an effort to push more housing across Redland. Pictures: Contributed

A bayside city, reprimanded for failing to update its housing strategy, has fired back at state government criticism, claiming it is well equipped to provide an extra 20,000 dwellings by 2046.

Redland City Council said the state government’s recent planning blueprint for the state, known as the SEQ Regional Plan update, was “excessive”, “invalid” and “not appropriate”.

The council challenged the state’s move to open up 900 hectares of land in southern Thornlands for housing, while also pushing for the state to rezone the controversial Toondah Harbour site to allow 3600 units to be built.

It said no new land was needed to be opened up for housing as the state’s projected figures had not accounted for the potential of up to 8000 new dwellings from expected subdivisions.

Nor did they include about 4400 vacant southern Moreton Bay island lots or an extra 1150 dwellings at Toondah Harbour on top of 3600 already expected and about 750 dwellings on Minjerribah-North Stradbroke Is.

At a special meeting last week, a council officer report claimed the city had “adequate dwelling capacity” into the future and the state’s population growth expectations were not based on valid data.

Redland council says is land housing supply is adequate. An aerial image of the Shoreline housing project in Redland Bay taken in February 2023 showing the housing estate which will soon be home to 10,000 people. Image: Shoreline

“Redlands Coast has a sufficient dwelling supply to accommodate the forecast population growth to 2046,” the officer report said.

“There is no need to expand the Urban Footprint or provide new growth areas to accommodate additional residential growth.

“Redland has consistently achieved the dwelling benchmarks of the ShapingSEQ and no undersupply issues have ever been reported.

“The city can satisfy the nominal sub-targets identified by the draft ShapingSEQ project team of approximately 12,500 detached and 7500 attached dwellings to 2046.

“Given the council’s dwelling capacity review is a conservative approach and there is significant scope to increase realistic availability, there is no evidence to justify including more land in the Urban Footprint for residential purposes.”

Redland mayor Karen Williams said Redland already had significant dwelling capacity to accommodate population growth to 2046.

“There is no evidence to expand the urban footprint or provide new growth areas to accommodate the additional residential growth as this draft plan suggests,” she said.

“The state government should support council in prioritising the delivery of the critical state infrastructure the Redland community is already crying out for, including major road upgrades, enhanced public transport, and improvements to emergency services, health care and schools.

“Continuing to identify new growth outside the existing urban footprint without any commitments to critical state infrastructure raises serious concerns in maintaining our region’s liveability.”

Redland council is railing against opening up land at southern Thornlands for housing.

Officers also questioned the state’s population calculations, stating they were based on the highest estimated growth rate of 1.8 per cent rather than the state statistician’s figure of 1.6 per cent.

For Redland, the SEQRegional plan forecast an extra 50,300 people, which equates to a 31 per cent rise, from 161,700 to 212,000 by 2046.

To accommodate those new ratepayers, the state predicted the need for 20,000 more dwellings, up from 65,000 in 2021 to 85,000 by 2046, a figure which mirrored the council’s calculations.

The majority, or 12,500, would be detached houses with the rest made up of units and tower blocks.

An artist’s impression of the Toondah Harbour housing project at Cleveland, which the council said will provide 3600 new units and a further planned 1100 apartments on reclaimed wetlands. Picture: Walker Group

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher said the state had used the highest-level population predictions in an effort to push more housing across Redland.

“State governments across the country are fed up with this sort of behaviour by local councils and are starting to really take a hard line to ensure adequate housing supply,” he said.

“This sort of veto power by a council will only serve to take more power away from local governments with the state likely to punish councils that do not step into line.

“However, the state government does need to commit to funding infrastructure if Redland council is to push ahead with more housing.

“Redland council must shoulder its share of the population burden but the council does have a point when it says it cannot accommodate more people without the state committing to funding more and better infrastructure.”

Even if the state won Redland housing control, Mr Kuestenmacher said there was a risk of “over correction” with the state losing “local intelligence”.

The council’s opposition to the SEQRegional Plan update will be outlined in a submission to State Development Minister Steven Miles.

A Redland council map of southern Thornlands, with the red set out for mixed industry and business; the white area to remain rural residential; the yellow to be for transport use; the blue to be for education facilities; and the purple for storage sheds.

A large part of the submission will include the council case against opening up southern Thornlands for housing.

It will cite the potential environmental impacts, including to koala habitat, and claim it would not offer diverse housing options, which the state stipulated in a letter to the council on September 15.

The southern Thornlands area has been at the centre of land banking claims ever since it was earmarked to be zoned for urban development but removed from the urban footprint in the 2009 SEQ regional plan to protect koalas.

“Since that time, the conservation status of koala populations in Queensland has been elevated from vulnerable to endangered in February 2022,” the council submission said.

“Large-scale development of this area has the potential to significantly impact on matters of national environmental significance, such as koalas, likely requiring referral and assessment under the federal Environmental Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act.”

The council submission will also ask the state to include the Redland Bay Business Park in the Urban Footprint and commit to funding critical infrastructure projects such as upgrading Cleveland-Redland Bay Rd.

The Draft SEQRegional Plan also includes a new voluntary action that requires local governments to demonstrate how they will meet dwelling supply targets at two (2026), five (2031) and 10-year (2036) time frames.

Although not a statutory requirement, Redland is expected to deliver its supply statement to the draft ShapingSEQ project team for review by October 9.