Sizzling summer on the cards this holiday season

It's been a warm, dry year for residents across Queensland. Changing Climates series author Dr Christa Pudmenzky, explains what's in store over the summer holidays.

Experts observe that Australia's climate is warming.

It's been a piping hot one for Earth this year.

The world experienced its hottest summer, hottest month and hottest day in recorded history.

And now, as we head into the holiday season, there's a 99 per cent chance 2023 will be the hottest year to date.

Our oceans have also been feeling the heat, with sea surface temperatures flying off the charts since mid-March and Antarctic sea ice reaching its lowest winter extent on record – smashing the previous low by over a million square kilometres.

With this global view in mind, let's take a closer look at what's been happening in the Land Down Under.

Many parts of the country have experienced a hot, dry 2023, particularly over the winter months.

In fact, we've all just lived through Australia's warmest winter since records began over 100 years ago.

If we zoom in on Queensland, we see a topsy-turvy year of extremes.

The state experienced its warmest June on record, with temperatures more than 3C above average.

Just one month later, parts of Queensland had their wettest July ever.

July 4-5 was particularly soggy, with many regions recording up to 15 times the average monthly rainfall in that 24 hour window.

August saw the state dry off again, with rainfall plummeting to around 80 per cent below average.

This was followed by soaring temperatures and dry winds which fanned the flames of over 20 bushfires across the state in late October.

Recent rains bringing relief

We're well and truly in the midst of an El Nino now, after the Bureau of Meteorology announced the event in late September.

While Australian rainfall behaves differently during every El Nino event, we typically experience hotter, drier winter and springtime weather.

The Bureau of Meteorology also declared a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is another key driver of our weather in winter and spring.

It is a distant cousin of El Nino, but in the Indian Ocean.

This positive IOD is gaining strength quickly and inching towards the record-challenging 2019 event that underpinned Australia's warmest and driest year on record.

When we couple this with an El Nino, the combination can intensify heatwaves, contribute to drought conditions, and prime Australia for severe bushfires in eastern Australia.

We saw exactly this between June and October across much of the country.

Luckily for us, the effects of the IOD and El Nino start to wear off as we move into summer.

And, this year, the November and early December rains mean the chances of significant early summer fires have reduced.

With the waning effect of El Nino and a positive IOD as we move into summer, long-range forecasts are now indicating relatively normal rainfall conditions out to February.

However, those same forecasts are still showing warmer than normal summer temperatures, including a higher chance of extreme hot temperature.

This is an ongoing trend, and one that's likely to continue as our climate warms as a result of excessive greenhouse gas emissions.

Sleighing it sustainably

The best way to reduce the impact of extreme weather is to lighten our footprint on the planet.

We can start this festive season by wrapping up 2023 in sustainable style.

Taking a DIY approach to decorations is a great way to kickstart the earth-friendly festivities and is an opportunity to have some precious family time.

When it comes to presents, thrifting or regifting is a greener option and helps save pennies too.

But, if you are keen to buy, think about an experience – like a trip to the hot springs, tickets to the circus, or wine-tasting – that your loved one can enjoy with friends or family.

Of course the best part of the holiday season are the tasty treats, so make the most of seasonal Aussie produce from the local grocer to help limit the emissions required to get food from farm to table.

There's nothing more delicious than a berry-filled summer pudding!

One final note from the Changing Climates team, as we prepare to enjoy pavlova topped with fruit and cream.

Thank you for joining us in 2023, after a massive year, kick your feet up and spend time with loved ones among the gumtrees or by the sea.

Want more information on how your climate is changing? Check out the last article in this series.

Dr Christa Pudmenzky is a climate scientist at the University of Southern Queensland.

This column is part of a collaboration between Monash University and News Corp to deliver hyperlocal weather and climate information.