ALP will be defying history if it wins Forde, says Griffith Uni expert Paul Williams

Labor will be defying history if it wins Forde, according to a leading political expert.

Forde candidates Des Hardman (ALP) and sitting MP Bert van Manen (LNP)

LABOR must defy history if it is to claim Forde, according to a leading political expert.

Griffith University’s Dr Paul Williams said the electorate of Forde was a “must-win” prospect for the Labor Party despite the area’s historic nature as Coalition territory.

Griffith University’s senior lecturer in politics and journalism Dr Paul Williams.

The electorate, which covers from Shailer Park to Bethania and Boronia Heights to Beenleigh through to Upper Coomera, has only been held once by Labor since 2004.

“Forde is a ‘must-win’ seat for Labor, and many expected it to fall to Labor in 2016,” Dr Williams said.

“It’s classic outer suburbia with some regional characteristics that indicate the usual economic or material’ issues — such as cost of living, infrastructure, Medicare, jobs — are at a premium.

“Given the 0.7 margin is so fragile, it’s difficult to see how Mr van Manen — a well-liked local candidate who defeated Labor’s Peter Beattie in 2013 — can survive this time around.”

The federal electorate of Forde, which is currently held by Bert van Manen (LNP).

But despite a lengthy period of LNP domination, Dr Williams said a Labor victory in Forde would not be entirely unprecedented.

In 2007, Brett Raguse won the seat for the party and Mary Crawford enjoyed a nine-year stint as the division member from 1987 to 1996.

But Dr Williams said this could be the year that turned around, especially given the close result at the last election in 2016 when LNP member Bert van Manen narrowly beat Labor’s Des Hardman to retain the position he has held since 2010.

FORDE

LNP: Bert van Manen

ALP: Des Hardman

GREENS: Kirsty Petersen

UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY: Paul Creighton

PAULINE HANSON’S ONE NATION: Ian Bowron

FRASER ANNING’S CONSERVATIVE NATIONAL PARTY: Les Innes

Federal Rankin MP Jim Chalmers and Labor candidate for Forde Des Hardman discuss M1 traffic issues.

Dr Williams said it was a different story to the northwest in the seat of Rankin, which included Logan Central, Slacks Creek, Meadowbrook and Loganlea.

He said Rankin was deep-red Labor territory since 1984 and with a projected swing against the Liberal National Party across Queensland, he believed there was no reason to expect a change in the seat.

The electorate of Rankin, held by ALP’s Jim Chalmers.

“Given I’m expecting the statewide swing to be between 3 and 4 per cent to Labor, although far from uniform, I expect Labor’s Jim Chalmers, who holds Rankin by 11.3 per cent, to be easily returned,” he said.

However, Dr Williams said voters in both electorates were driven by “hip-pocket” influences.

“Given initial anecdotal evidence that the Liberals’ shift from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison would mitigate the swing and perhaps protect Queensland marginal seats, more recent polls suggest the Liberal coup hasn’t done much to save the five Queensland seats at or under 2 per cent.”

RANKIN

ALP: Jim Chalmers, sitting member

LNP: Clinton Pattison

GREENS: Neil Cotter

UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY: Shyamal Reddy

PAULINE HANSON’S ONE NATION: Jesse Schneider

FRASER ANNING’S CONSERVATIVE NATIONAL PARTY: Peter Andrews

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS: Ric Davies

INDEPENDENT: Yusuf Mohammad