Historic Greens vote sees party surge in inner Brisbane

Maverick councillor Jonathan Sri has pulled off one of the biggest landslides for any Greens politician in Australian political history as the party smashed it in four inner-city wards.

Winners are grinners. Cr Jonathan Sri could secure 65 to 75 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in The Gabba ward, one of the best results for the Greens in Australian political history. Picture: Glenn Hunt/The Australian

Gabba councillor Jonathan Sri has declared victory after winning every booth in his inner-south ward and securing a majority of the primary vote in West End, Highgate Hill and South Brisbane.

His 49 per cent primary vote is only 1 or 2 per cent shy of the party’s federal leader Adam Bandt, who won Melbourne in the biggest victory for a Greens politician at any level of government anywhere in the country.

Political experts said the Greens’ strong showing was a continuation of recent trends in the inner west and inner south, but there was a lower swing to them in outer wards and in some areas they went backwards.

They also said Saturday’s results — at least based on preliminary counts on Sunday afternoon — showed Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner’s strategy of replacing veteran councillors with new, younger and female LNP councillors and candidates had been a huge success for the party.

“As preliminary results from the local government election flow in, it’s looking likely that the Greens will pick up multiple seats in Brisbane City Council, and may even end up holding the balance of power,’’ Cr Sri said.

“Citywide, both the major parties appear to have suffered a decline in their primary vote, while the Greens primary vote increased dramatically, because we actually listened to what residents told us was important to them.’’

But the final result heavily depends on how many people just voted “one’’ and how postal votes and preferences swing, and in many wards only 30 per cent of ballots had been counted by Sunday afternoon, so results could swing greatly.

Paddington, which in preliminary counts on Saturday night looked likely to go to former nurse and change consultant Donna Burns, is now on a knife edge, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green.

QUT political analyst John Mickel, a former Labor Speaker, said he was predicting the LNP’s Peter Matic would still win, based on Saturday’s count.

However he cautioned that only 34.1 per cent of votes had been counted at that point.

As of Saturday, Mr Green had Cr Peter Matic (LNP) on 50.3 per cent, two-party-preferred, against 49.7 per cent for Ms Burns, who would become what is believed to be only the second indigenous Brisbane councillor if she wins.

She achieved a huge 5.5 per cent swing, but only 34.1 per cent of the vote has been counted so the result could go either way.

Michaela Sargent clinched 35 per cent of the primary vote in Walter Taylor ward, dramatically trimming the margin for new LNP Councillor James Mackay, who was facing his first election.

Mr Green predicted Cr Mackay would easily win, but on a much reduced margin with 54.1 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote. Just over half of the vote has been counted.

The result so far represented a whopping 11.6 per cent swing to the Greens in a seat Julian Simmonds, now the federal LNP MP for the westside seat of Ryan, won in 2016 with a thumping 65 per cent of the primary vote.

And it came despite a well-funded, highly energetic campaign from Cr Mackay, who is adept at social media and a strong campaigner, and a shoestring but volunteer-heavy campaign from Ms Sargent.

Mr Mickel said the Greens had done well in the past few elections in Brisbane’s inner west and the inner city, including Central ward where he believed they had overtaken Labor to take second place for the first time in history.

“These are all big swings, based on Sunday’s counts, but as prepolls and postals come in that vote will drop off for them,’’ he predicted.

“In other wards, the swing is less pronounced and in some wards they have gone backwards.’’

Mr Mickel said the outstanding proof of Cr Schrinner’s renewal strategy was Lisa Atwood in Doboy, which was a notional Labor ward after a boundary change.

But she achieved a 11 per cent swing to the LNP, based on Sunday’s count.

“All the commentators, including me, thought she would struggle to retain that ward,’’ he said.

Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams said the result was troubling for Labor and appeared to be due to educated, high-income Labor supporters turning to the Greens because of anger over the Adani coal mine, the scandal around Treasurer Jackie Trad’s house, the state of Queensland Health and also the railways.

“Those voters really have nowhere else to park their vote,’’ Dr Williams said.

The Greens’ Charles Druckmann was on 24 per cent of the primary in Pullenvale and on 40.2 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote in the ward, traditionally an ultra Liberal stronghold.

The LNP’s Greg Adermann, who faced a bitter and controversial challenge from former LNP councillor for the ward, Kate Richards, was on this afternoon’s count predicted to take the ward with 59.8 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

Ms Richards withdrew her preselection nomination for the LNP last year after her own party referred her to the Crime and Corruption Commission over alleged breaches of donations rules.

The CCC announced just before Saturday’s election that there was insufficient evidence of criminal conduct by Ms Richards and lambasted the LNP for making its claims against her public.

The Supreme Court also ruled against a LNP bid to block Ms Richards from using campaign ads and corflutes in traditional Liberal blue colours, with headshots of, and what could be read as endorsements from, LNP Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner.

Coorparoo hung in the balance on Saturday night’s count, but Mr Green was now calling it a comfortable LNP win.

In Central ward, the LNP’s Vicki Howard might still be unseated by the Greens’ Tricia Massey, with Mr Green putting Cr Howard on 52.1 per cent and Ms Massey on 47.9 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

That represented a heft 6 per cent swing to the Greens, but only 29.6 per cent of the vote has been counted so anything could still happen.

In The Gap ward, Labor’s Daniel Bevis appeared to be in a strong position after preliminary counting on Saturday night.

But Mr Green was now predicting the sitting LNP councillor, Steve Toomey, had picked up a 2.5 per cent swing to put him on 57.2 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

Mr Bevis’ brother Shane achieved a 15 per cent swing in the 2016 election in the ward.

In Tennyson, which stretches from Chelmer to Yeronga, Brisbane’s most popular councillor, Nicole Johnston, has become even more popular.

Cr Johnston increased her already massive margin in 2016 another 1 per cent, to put her on 74 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

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“The surge in Greens support right across Brisbane has tipped the balance in half a dozen marginal seats, and we’re also a chance to pick up seats in councils like the Sunshine Coast and Scenic Rim, cementing the Greens as a major political force across southeast Queensland,’’ Cr Sri said.

“This is a ringing endorsement of the bold, transformative vision we’ve advocated of reducing the corrupting influence that property developers and big business exert over local councils, and putting power back in the hands of the people.

“Our massive swing in the Gabba ward shows that residents support the somewhat-unconventional approach I’ve taken as Queensland’s first Greens councillor.

“A lot of people are hungry for political and social change, and are inspired by our positive vision for a more equitable, more sustainable, more democratic city.’’