Is the QLD property boom over … or just off the boil?

Median house prices in more than 100 Queensland suburbs have dropped since their peak, in what is the first sign that the real estate market might finally be going from blast furnace to balmy. SEARCH NOW

Median house prices in over 100 Queensland suburbs have dropped since their peak during the pandemic property boom, in what is the first tangible sign that the red hot real estate market might finally be going from blast furnace to balmy.

New data from REA Group shows 113 suburbs – from acreage and family suburbs to beachside locales – have recorded a fall in median house prices since reaching their peak prices, which represents 15 per cent of the state’s 755 suburbs.

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But the data shows that just 3 per cent of those same suburbs also recorded a decrease in their median values over 12 months, with the extraordinary price growth absorbing value drops in most locations.

Willow Vale, a semirural Gold Coast suburb with a mix of prestige and affordable homes, has seen the biggest overall reduction in median sales prices since its peak in 2021, down 40.83 per cent.

That peak was dragged skywards on the back of a number of huge acreage sales in the suburb, with a new record set in November last year when a sprawling modern house on 8.15ha sold for $4 million.

Ray White Upper Coomera agent Russell Cosgrove said the median value in the suburb could be “quite skewed” depending on what was selling at the time.

He said the number of acreage listings had slowed during the last quarter, but that he had at least four properties coming onto the market soon with expected price tags north of $3 million.

“I do foresee more growth in the Willow Vale area,” he said.

Willow Vale is a suburb of extremes, with this house listed for offers over $620,000

And this one selling for $4 million

Even Queensland’s hottest property market – Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast – is showing early signs of easing, with median house values down 4.43 per cent on its peak in January.

But that decrease pales in comparison to the eye-watering capital growth witnessed in the suburb, a whopping 33.8 per cent over 12 months.

This Sunshine Beach house sold for a Qld record of $34 million last year .

In Brisbane, the family suburb of Wilston is also showing signs of moderating, with values down 7.14 per cent from its peak of $1.32 million in December after 12.2 per cent growth over the past 12 months, meaning sellers are still ahead.

It was a similar story in New Farm, where values are down 2.36 per cent on its peak of $2.22 million in December.

However, median house values soared 17.8 per cent over 12 months, according to the data.

Ray White New Farm principal Matt Lancashire said he hadn’t seen any heat come out of the market, despite the days on market increasing “by a few days”.

“Maybe there has been a decrease in high end sales,” he said. “It is still tough to buy into the southeast market, a lot of competition.”

Overall, 18 of the 113 suburbs recorded both a drop in values since the peak and over 12 months, with all of those outside of the southeast corner.

REA Group executive manager of economic research Cameron Kusher said price growth in Queensland was slowing, but prices in Brisbane were still rising faster than in Sydney and Melbourne.

“I wouldn’t say the boom is over (for Queensland) but that peak growth has probably passed,” he said.

“And most suburbs are still way above what they were even just six months ago.”

Cameron Kusher, REA Group Director of Economic Research

Up north, the biggest drop in values was in Airlie Beach, where median house prices came back 8.42 per cent since their peak in December, and were down 3.8 per cent over 12 months.

The tourism icon that is Airlie Beach. Supplied.

In Cairns, Freshwater recorded the biggest decline – down 6.72 per cent since the peak, but off the back of a 15.6 per cent increase over 12 months.

Shaw, in Townsville, saw values decline 4.88 per cent since its October peak of $410,000, while the city’s most expensive suburb, Castle Hill, has seen its median value fall 0.91 per cent, or $10,000, since its peak in August last year.

Janice Gallagher of Janice Gallagher Real Estate in Townsville said there was still a lot of buyers in the prestige market, but very little stock.

“Townsville is still very cheap compared to down south and the property boom here was more of a slow burn,” she said.

“And some suburbs are still a way behind their peaks during the last boom, so there is still good bang for your buck.”

This Castle Hill house sold for $1.35m in November

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said on a national level, it was “fair to say the boom is over”.

He said prices were still rising on a national level, but the rate of increase has “slowed to a crawl”, with Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, appearing to have peaked.

As for Brisbane and Adelaide, Mr Oliver said they too had likely passed their peak, but both cities had lagged behind the two biggest capitals so may still have some room to grow.

“I suspect it (the boom) will be over everywhere within six months,” he said.

“Nationally we have lost momentum, affordability has declined significantly, banks have increased rates, auction clearance rates are not as strong, and FOMO just doesn’t seem to be as present.

“That said, there will still be some areas booming but not as much.”

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says that on a national level, the boom is over. Picture: supplied

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella stopped short of saying the boom was over, but suggested the market might “be stabilising”.

“We have seen unprecedented growth across the state and the fact that the suburbs are so widespread suggests we may have reached the peak and the market might now be stabilising,” she said.

“But we aren’t yet seeing dramatic drops … there are other factors like talk of rates rising, the federal election, which may only have hit pause on the market.

“I think we can all agree that affordability is important.”

What slowdown: This property at 637 Musgrave Rd, Robertson, in Brisbane, recently sold for $17.25m to a developer. Pic supplied by Ray White.

Finder home loan expert Richard Whitten said it was clear that property price rises in Australia were slowing down.

“Prices in Brisbane have risen around 30 per cent in the last 12 months,” he said.

“Crucially, there still seems to be plenty of momentum in the Brisbane market, where prices grew 1.8 per cent in the last month.

“This is a strong contrast to Sydney and Melbourne, where we’ve seen growth flatten to almost zero in the last month or so.”

Mr Whitten said he expected to see prices starting to fall in more capital cities, particularly if interest rates went up, but he added that any price drops would affect different cities at different times.

“Local supply and demand factors matter too,” he said.