Numerous major projects, including Aniko Group’s $2bn four-tower Mermaid Beach residential and hotel development The Landmark, Robert Badalotti’s $650m Monarch Place will break ground.

Others, including Gordon Corp’s $300m Mantaray Marina and Residences on The Spit, Lewis Land’s $1.5bn Harbour Shores estate at Biggera Waters and the $1.5bn Skyridge at Worongary are under construction and expected to be completed in coming years.

However, despite having hundreds of units each, some of the city’s best-known developers admit the towers will only scratch the surface of the desire for property.

THE PROPERTY CRUNCH

Prominent developer Soheil Abedian, who co-founded Sunland Group and built the Gold Coast’s tallest tower Q1 and now builds with his private company Abedian and Co, said inquiries had increased in the early weeks of 2025 despite a downturn in late 2024 following the state election in Queensland and US presidential election.

“The demand far outstrips the supply and this will always be the case now because there are 15,000 people coming here every year and that means we need to build an extra 6000 dwellings every year to match that,” he said. “Good luck with that.

“An issue which is being faced in my opinion is that developers, no matter how cashed-up they are, have not got any land they can buy which is available for development.

“Many don’t want to buy something with an existing approval on it while others already have approvals but not the ability to actually build or finance it.”

A startling report released in December by property consulting firm Urbis warned the city would need more than 50 new towers built every year to cope with the population growth and meet state government targets.

The Queensland Government’s ShapingSEQ Regional Plan calls for a further 38,800 high-rise apartments to meet population growth targets across the Gold Coast by 2031.

However, Urbis senior consultant Lynda Campbell said at the time the Gold Coast was increasingly falling behind the targets

“At an average building scale of 90 -100 apartments, this is the equivalent of around 430 new apartment buildings in the Gold Coast by 2032,” she said in December.

To build 430 new towers by 2032 requires more than 50 to go up annually.

“The recent slowing of new project launches will hinder the Coast’s ability to hit these targets. “In 2023, for example, 16 new mid and high-rise apartment towers were launched, containing 1800 apartments.

“During 2024, to date, there have been only 11, containing around 800 apartments.”

Gordon Corp boss Tim Gordon said he expected 2025 would see no end to the demand for Gold Coast property.

“2025 is going to be another year of demand outweighing supply for new apartment stock and we expect to see a significant shift in the way developers release their stock to market to mitigate the cost of construction,” he said.

“We’re going to see apartments released to the market in stages, rather than in their entirety, to de-risk exposure to ever-increasing build costs.

“Buyers who jump in early on projects are likely to experience a price differentiation anywhere between twenty and thirty per cent.”

Research by real estate firm Colliers International released in February 2024 warned there was a “lack of trust” in developers being able to deliver projects and rapidly dropping stock levels.

Despite hundreds of towers and thousands of apartments being approved since the Covid property boom, David Higgins, of Colliers, warned two thirds of respondents to survey said they didn’t know if they could trust developers to bring the project while fears were growing over the rapidly dropping number of available units.

Mr Gordon admitted developers needed to work harder with buyers to mitigate this issue.

“Gone are the days when you could rely on third or fourth-party information, or only engage with a sales agent, to confidently make a purchase off the plan,” he said.

“My advice is to ask to speak to the developers because talking to the person who is responsible for the product you are purchasing gives you a better sense of their integrity and you can ask the hard questions because they are in the detail and are invested in its success. “Developers need to be more hands on in this regard, because buying in these market conditions comes down to trust.

“It’s about looking people in the eye, sharing with them your experience, processes, the team you have behind you, and the project’s funding arrangements and if they won’t do that for you, I would question their intentions.”

COST AND EFFECT

The previous year saw plenty of grim news for the city’s property sector, with consulting firms producing numerous reports warning of the dire state of land availability compared to the demand for it.

Sales data published in November by Colliers showed just 55 properties were sold during the first three months of 2024, while around 2000 houses were sold during the same period, down from 2750 just three years earlier.

“If the sales rate of the first quarter continues across the full year, the Gold Coast will have sold 220 lots in 2024, making it one of the worst years for the housing land market on record,” Mr Higgins said at the time.

“The land sales data sounds a clear warning for the Gold Coast housing market that the industry and government can no longer ignore.

“The evaporation of sales in the first quarter of this year is directly related to the massive undersupply of land across the Gold Coast local government area.

“It’s a problem that has been building since 2020 which has seen land prices almost double over the past four years.”

It was revealed the same month that housing prices had increased more than 75 per cent in the past four years with new data showing it costs more than $1m to get into much of the city’s property market.

A recent report also by Colliers warned that, while 2000 new units would be completed by the end of 2025, they would do nothing to ease the crisis given most had already sold as far back as 2021 when the projects were marketed.

Mr Higgins said in September the market faced several years of challenges to catch up with demand

“The settlements this year are effectively the flow-on effect of a massive increase in buyer activity in 2021, but since then we have seen significant challenges for the high-rise sector that continues to keep supply well behind the demand curve,” he said.

“Buyers continue to flood the market competing for less available stock than this time last year.

“We’re now seeing more apartments selling above $1m than ever before and it’s evident that this is part of a changing dynamic for the Gold Coast market.

“Over the last two years, 67 per cent of sales were priced at $1m and over, but during the second quarter of this year 89 per cent of sales were $1m and over.”

The report noted around 5650 units were under construction at the time but just 31 per cent were expected to be completed in the current financial year, the number increasing to 36 per cent in 2025-26.

The 2023 Gold Coast Dwelling Supply Study revealed 40,000 units approved for the city have never been built and are unlikely to be realised.

“That’s 10 to 12 years supply but they haven’t started, they cannot start because it is too expensive to build or for the market to purchase,” its author Michael Matusik, of Matusik Property Insight said at the time.

CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE

The increasing cost of construction has been a major issue in the past four years and has seen several projects shelved because they have become unaffordable.

However builders say the biggest issue facing the sector from getting more projects off the ground is government fees.

Red Dog Group boss James Elliott, whose company is building multiple Coast housing projects, said he hoped to see red tape cut this year.

“Builders are taking most of the blame for the flow-on of construction price rises but also haven’t helped themselves by properly communicating that this just isn’t the case,” he said.

“The reality is there is still too much red tape, increases in local planning costs, and unaffordable infrastructure levies, all of which are stymieing new approvals and ultimately pushing prices up.”

He said the collapse of several Gold Coast builders during the same period, including Condev and Descon, have caused greater problems.

“The economic stress caused by the bankruptcy of thousands of builders has forced

subcontractors to favour government projects for financial security and shun the private sector,” he said.

“This has in turn compounded the skills shortage problem meaning builders are more prone to not being able to deliver on their projects in a timely manner with all sorts of knock-on effects.

“While the latest building approval statistics paint a patchy picture from state to state, overall

approvals fell by 3.6 per cent, a trend in the wrong direction that will only continue.”

SOLVING THE ISSUES.

A key issue to be settled in 2025 will be the development of a new City Plan.

It will be subject to negotiations between the Gold Coast City Council and the new state government.

City planning boss Councillor Mark Hammel said in December developing a new City Plan with the state government was critical to unlocking supply but warned there was no overnight fix.

“The endorsed position of council is to have a new planning scheme in place before the end of 2027,” he said.

“I believe that is the longest we can wait because every week that goes by without a new planning scheme is dwelling opportunities being lost.

“We want this done before the end of 2027 and to do that, we need the state government to commit genuinely to helping us meet that time frame and by ensuring that state resources which are critical to getting this done are not squandered on other things”

While years away, Mayor Tom Tate in the meantime is pushing for the state government to consider intervening and introducing Temporary Local Planning Instruments (TLPI) along the light rail to unlock high-density developments on the route.

He said it could create more than 30,000 new dwellings.

BRIGHTER TIMES AHEAD

Despite high costs and little land available for redevelopment, several developers say they expect a strong year ahead for the Gold Coast.

John Kearney, founder of Immerse Projects and Greyburn building contractors, is on track this year to complete two mid-rise projects – Rhythm Kirra Hill and Ombre at Robina.

He said he has a positive outlook on the sector, saying the top builders were playing their cards carefully.

“Buyers can be confident in the Gold Coast and there’s no doubt there are cowboys out there who shouldn’t be trusted, however they are outnumbered by the established, reputable developers who’ve been building this city for decades,” he said.

“Everyone who lives on the Gold Coast knows we need more apartments than what is currently being delivered.

“The established builders are derisking their portfolios, and protecting purchasers, by not biting off more than they can chew.

“That means having a smaller number of projects under construction at any one time, to mitigate construction and labour costs.”

McNab executive chairman Michael McNab said he was “optimistic” about the 2025 market as he prepared to begin construction of Elements Budds Beach and launch “several other exciting projects”.

“The city continues to exhibit remarkable growth potential, and we anticipate a significant shift towards quality developments that can offer certainty, with boutique and luxury apartments particularly standing out,” he said.

Motiv managing director Carly Cottam said the Gold Coast’s lifestyle would continue to attract buyers.

“The Gold Coast off-the-plan market remains resilient and looking ahead to 2025 we anticipate steady growth in premium and boutique projects as buyers increasingly prioritise quality, location, and developer reputation,” he said.

“The Gold Coast’s evolution into a luxury market leader, supported by increasing international interest, is an exciting prospect for both developers and buyers.”