What’s next for Vladimir Putin after Wagner Group’s attempted military coup

Despite his tough talk, Vladimir Putin is facing the most serious challenges of his 23 years in power. See what could happen next.

All eyes are on Vladimir Putin after Russia came close the brink of civil war. Here’s what could happen next.

IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR PUTIN’S REIGN?

Vladimir Putin is facing the most serious challenge of his 23 years in power.

While the Russian President may have forced the leader of the Wagner Group to back down on an attempted military coup, a significant weakness of his judgment and leadership has been exposed.

Analysts say Mr Putin may be talking tough now but his failure to act and control the Wagner group — described as a “prison army death squad” — has led to the crisis.

Vladimir Putin is facing the most serious challenges his 23 years in power. Picture: AFP

Nobody had stood up to Mr Putin before, certainly not during the Ukraine conflict, and his actions have highlighted his lack of control not only of the war but of those around him.

In the West, analysts have long predicted the trust Mr Putin handed former close friend Yevgeny Prigozhin, the billionaire warlord in charge of the Wagner Group, would lead to disaster.

In a significant oversight, the Russian President has allowed Wagner to gain popularity, take over the regular Russian forces in Ukraine and gain huge notoriety and wealth.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR PUTIN’S LEADERSHIP?

Writing for The Sunday Times, Putin expert Professor Mark Galeotti said when history records the downfall of the Russian President, it will say the endgame starts here.

A member of Wagner Group sits atop of a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, on Saturday. Picture: AFP

The three pillars on which Putin’s regime rests — control of the security apparatus, personal legitimacy and his capacity to throw money at problems — are now under fire.

Professor Galeotti aid Mr Putin has largely been absent in recent times as figures within the elite observed Mr Prigozhin’s antics with dismay.

The Russian President continues to hold meetings but has been failing to tackle a number of disputes, he said.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR UKRAINE?

The Wagner rebellion is likely to benefit Ukraine, with Russia shifting weapons and troops away form the frontline as Kyiv amps up its counteroffensive.

As the Wagner crisis escalated, Russia’s generals were forced to concentrate on events at home, even if fighting was limited.

Originally published as What’s next for Vladimir Putin after Wagner Group’s attempted military coup