US midterm elections start 2024 presidential race, and Donald Trump is already off and running

Donald Trump is poised to announce his third White House run within days amid a strong Republican showing expected in next week’s midterm elections.

When voting closes in next week’s US midterm elections, the starting gun will be fired on the Republican race to take on Joe Biden.

The favourite is Donald Trump – and he is already off and running.

Trump has crisscrossed the United States in recent weeks, ostensibly to help candidates in battleground states, but ultimately to position himself to capitalise on what the Republicans hope will be a red wave that gives them control of Congress.

“In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again,” Trump said in Texas last month, flagging his third White House campaign.

At a rally on Friday in Iowa, he went a step further.

“In order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again,” Trump said.

“Get ready, that’s all I’m telling you. Very soon. Get ready.”

US news sites later reported that Trump’s top advisers were plotting to officially launch his next presidential bid on November 14, potentially followed by a series of headline-grabbing political events.

President Joe Biden campaigns in Florida. Picture: Joe Raedle (Getty Images/AFP)

The midterms mark the halfway point of Biden’s four-year term in the White House and, if the polls are to be believed, what may be the beginning of the end of his presidency.

Victory for the Republicans – at least in the House of Representatives, if not the Senate – would stymie Biden’s legislative agenda for the next two years.

It would also expose the President to distracting and potentially damaging Republican-led investigations of everything from his border policies to his son’s controversial business dealings, and even efforts to impeach him.

It is not unusual for a first-term president’s party to perform poorly at the midterms, where every House of Representatives seat and a third of the Senate is in play. Indeed, it is a historical norm, one which does not necessarily prevent their re-election.

US midterm outcomes could be used by Donald Trump to fuel a third presidential run in 2024. Picture: AFP

But a deep defeat for the Democrats next week would heighten anxiety about Biden’s poor approval ratings, amid questions marks over his age – he would turn 86 before the end of a second term – and calls within the party for generational change.

It would also be used by Trump to fuel a third presidential run in 2024.

Reince Preibus, Trump’s former chief of staff, told Associated Press he was “like 95 per cent he’s going to run”.

“The real question is are other big challengers going to run? If President Trump runs, he will be very difficult for any Republican to defeat,” he said.

Others have already been jockeying for position with appearances on the midterm campaign trail, including key figures from Trump’s administration: Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Pence, asked recently if he would back Trump in 2024, said deliberately that “there might be somebody else I’d prefer more.”

Ron DeSantis, considered Trump’s top rival, is expected to be convincingly returned as Florida’s Governor next week in what has been a crucial swing state in presidential elections. He is so confident that he has been boosting his profile by campaigning for Republicans in Ohio, Pennsylvania and even the at-risk Democratic stronghold of New York.

DeSantis also backed Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea, who had said he did not want Trump to run again, prompting the former president to blast him as “stupid”. Tellingly, while Trump will campaign in Florida on Monday, DeSantis has not been invited to his rally.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis campaigns in Pennsylvania. Picture: Jeff Swensen (Getty Images/AFP)

What makes this shadow campaign during the midterms so important, according to Republican strategist Alex Conant, is that non-Trump contenders for the party’s 2024 nomination want to frame their run on their own terms before he officially announces.

“If you come in after, you’ll be portrayed as seeing some kind of vulnerability in Trump, and his reaction will be part of your rollout,” he told Politico.

The Trump factor also feeds into whether Biden runs again. He has said he intends to seek a second term, and allies believe he would be particularly determined if his opponent was his predecessor, who Biden has forcefully painted as a threat to democracy.

Polls show Trump’s effort to overturn his 2020 defeat – which remains the subject of multiple investigations – has dragged down his popularity among voters.

At the same time, however, hundreds of Republican candidates contesting the midterms have also denied or questioned Biden’s legitimate victory. In states such as Arizona, where politicians wield power over the administration and oversight of elections, victory for these Trump-backed candidates would place them in a position to challenge the 2024 result.

So while Biden and Trump are not on the ballot next week, they both have everything to play for.

Originally published as US midterm elections start 2024 presidential race, and Donald Trump is already off and running