US election polls: Polling guru Nate Silver tips Donald Trump will beat Kamala Harris

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a statistical tie in the states that will decide the US election – but a top polling expert has revealed his prediction.

A renowned polling guru has declared that his gut says Donald Trump will win the US presidential election.

The former president is locked in a statistical tie with Vice President Kamala Harris in the seven battleground states that will decide the race.

Nate Silver, a highly regarded polling expert, wrote in the New York Times that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast”.

But he added: “My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”

“You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50,” Mr Silver said.

“And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr Trump or Ms Harris.”

What do the latest national polls show?

Two polls released a fortnight out from the election showed Ms Harris holding firm in front.

The Morning Consult poll found she had the support of 50 per cent of likely voters while 46 per cent preferred Mr Trump – in line with her lead in the organisation’s previous research.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll had her on 46 per cent with Mr Trump on 43 per cent, although that survey raised warning signs for the Vice President with Mr Trump strongly favoured on the key issues of the economy and immigration.

The Rasmussen Reports poll – which has typically favoured the Republican candidate – gave him a lead of 50 per cent to 47 per cent.

According to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Ms Harris was sitting on 49.4 per cent while Mr Trump was on 48.3 per cent.

Donald Trump campaigns in North Carolina. Picture: Win McNamee (AFP)

What about polling in the battleground states?

America’s Electoral College system means the next president will be decided by voters in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.

Bear in mind that in 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Mr Trump in the overall popular vote by almost three million, but he convincingly won the Electoral College by triumphing in swing states.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, the former president currently leads Ms Harris in all seven battlegrounds, but his advantage in each state is so narrow that the candidates are statistically tied.

Mr Trump is ahead by 0.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 0.4 percentage points in Wisconsin and 0.5 percentage points in North Carolina – and Ms Harris would win the election if she claimed victory in those three states.

Earlier this week, a Washington Post-Schar School poll of 5000 registered voters across the seven swing states found the candidates were deadlocked on 47 per cent.

Kamala Harris prepares to fly from Georgia to Pennsylvania. Picture: Megan Warner (Getty Images via AFP)

What if the polls are wrong?

In 2016, while the national polls were remarkably accurate, they overlooked Mr Trump’s swing state strength that handed him a stunning victory. Four years ago, the national polls over-estimated Mr Biden’s advantage, and he only squeaked home in key battlegrounds.

Should the polls miss in the same way as 2020 this time around, Mr Trump would easily sweep the seven states up for grabs, ensuring a dominant victory.

But if the polls are wrong in the same way they were during the 2022 congressional midterm elections – when the Democrats surprisingly averted a Republican wipe-out – then Ms Harris would win.

According to renowned polling guru Nate Silver, Mr Trump currently has a 53 per cent chance of winning the Electoral College and returning to the White House.

Originally published as US election polls: Polling guru Nate Silver tips Donald Trump will beat Kamala Harris