Trump still the top Republican candidate

Former US president Donald Trump was always going to win in Iowa, the first nominating contest in the nation. But what really mattered – to Trump and his rivals – was the margin.

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump urged his supporters to get out and vote even if they were “sick as a dog” during a snowstorm sweeping the state.

“Even if you vote and then pass away, it’s worth it,” the former president said.

For someone who loves to brag about his popularity, justifiably so given his dominant lead in the race to be the Republican presidential candidate, it was an oddly desperate remark.

Trump was always going to win in Iowa, the first nominating contest in the nation. US media outlets did not even bother to wait for more than a few hundred votes to roll in before declaring him the victor.

But what really mattered – to Trump and his rivals – was the margin.

Former president Donald Trump speaks to voters during a visit to a caucus site at the Horizon Event Center in Clive, Iowa. Picture: Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images via AFP

In the end, support for the former president was slightly above 50 per cent, meaning almost as many Iowans came out on the coldest caucus night on record to back someone else.

While it was a historic blowout, it was tighter than his lead in the national polls had suggested.

The result is both a blessing and a curse for Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who were locked in a tight battle for second place.

A blessing, because it shows that a significant rump of the Republican Party wants to move on from the controversial former president. And a curse, because while both of them remain in the field, neither can beat him.

DeSantis failed to soar ahead of Haley despite having thrown everything into Iowa, visiting all 99 counties and securing the critical endorsement of the state’s Republican governor.

Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump celebrate at a watch party during the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. Picture: Jim WATSON / AFP

Haley rode a late surge of momentum at his expense, and she should perform even better next week in the more moderate state of New Hampshire, before heading to her home patch of South Carolina where she used to be the governor.

But she is less appealing than DeSantis among softer Trump supporters in the more conservative states to come after that. And if DeSantis fights on as he is vowing to do, the anyone-but-Trump vote will remain split, and the former president will keep on winning.

That is exactly what happened in 2016, when he sailed through the middle of a Melbourne Cup-sized Republican field to claim the nomination.

While Trump has fewer rivals this time around, he also has a far more sizeable supporter base in a party he essentially owns.

Perhaps Trump would have liked an even bigger win in Iowa. But the nomination remains his to lose – and there’s still not much chance of that happening.

Originally published as Trump still the top Republican candidate