‘Tactical advantage’: Proof Melania now has the upper hand in her marriage to Donald Trump

The First Lady has disappeared yet again – and she now has the power to hit her husband right where it really hurts him the most.

OPINION

I have a new theory. Melania Trump might be the world’s best poker player.

There are Easter Island statues more expressive, monks who’ve taken vows of silence who give more away about themselves – but she has managed to end up holding all the cards

against the supposed leader of the free world.

The First Lady is currently MIA, having long ago stopped bothering to pretend to be all that interested in First Ladying or being in the same postcode as her husband.

The last time Mrs Trump was in Washington was March 5, and since then, neither hide nor hair has been seen of her as she pursues her busy agenda of lip balm application and dressing like she’s starring in a live action remake of Carmen San Diego.

And this, my friends, is what true power looks like.

Oh, I know Mr Trump has the nuclear codes, can order a drone strike on any pizzeria that forgets his garlic bread and is one of the few people on the planet who can single-handedly cause global share markets to wobble like an underset jelly, but her?

The missus has a far stronger hand.

Circa 2025, Mr Trump would appear to need his good lady wife far more than she needs him.

Imagine, just for a moment, if Mrs Trump decided she’d had it up to the pussy bow with having to listen to Marjorie Taylor Green’s “Jewish space laser” mumblings and dealing with Elon Musk’s children all over the East Wing.

If Melania left, it would hit her husband where it hurts. Picture: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Melania Trump remains a mystery, despite being one of the most famous faces on earth. Picture: Maciej Gillert/Gallo Images Poland/Getty Images

Imagine if she decided, as they might say in her native Slovenia, dovolj. (I’ll translate – enough).

Imagine if influential Trump chronicler Michael Wolff is on the money with his claim in his new book All or Nothing: How Trump Recaptured America, “Mrs Trump f***ing hates him”.

The Trumps have long since trampled every other norm and custom of presidential life, so it would only be fitting if they gave us history’s first White House divorce.

That’s a scenario with a whole lot of downside for the president – and a hell of a lot of up for the First Lady.

For him, it’s hard to know how much of a political blow a split would be, traditional conservative values having long since flown the coop when the Republican Party swore their fealty to their “grab ‘em by the p**y” messiah.

Mrs Trump packing her bags might just end up creating a wave of sympathy for the poor president, him having sacrificed his marriage for the good of a population who can no longer afford eggs and who are about a month away from being taught Russian in schools.

If Mrs Trump ever did decide to walk away from their marriage, it would be an ego hit for the ages for her husband. Picture: Saul Loeb-Pool/Getty Images

Still, at the very least, if Mrs Trump ever did decide to walk away from their marriage, it would be a seismic and deeply embarrassing ego hit for the ages for her husband, a man with thinner skin than papyrus.

Only the former FHM model still condescending to occasionally jet on down to Washington to stand in the vague vicinity of the man she promised to love and honour is preventing him from facing this particular humiliation.

Weigh it up and, on balance, she holds all the chips; she has the power to inflict far more damage on him than vice versa.

To an even greater degree than during Trump One, Mrs Trump appears to be strictly rationing her Washington presence and the less she appears, the more valuable her presence becomes. The economic model of scarcity has never been truer.

(Even People admitted in February, “she hasn’t spent meaningful time at the White House in an official capacity” since the inauguration).

And should anything ever happen to the Trumps’ 20-year marriage, it would hit him where it hurts the most – his bank account.

US First Lady Melania Trump pictured at Donald Trump's address to a joint session of Congress on March 4. Picture: Allison Robbert/AFP

One estimate from a high profile New York divorce lawyer in 2018 pegged a possible payout at about $80 million.

Add this all up, and it’s clear – Mrs Trump has the real advantage here.

We’ve seen her Wily Coyote-ishly use her political leverage over him before.

After Mr Trump’s 2017 election, it took the First Lady five months to move from New York to Washington.

It was later revealed by biographer Mary Jordan in The Art of Her Deal: The Untold Story of Melania Trump that she had dragged her feet so she could renegotiate her prenup.

In 2023, as Mr Trump geared up to run for the presidency for the second time, a source familiar with the enigma herself told Page Six that she had “been quietly negotiating a new ‘postnup’” – the third such time she had reworked the “marital agreement”. (The source also stressed this had nothing to do with the state of their marriage).

The moral of the story here is, Mrs Trump clearly has the tactical advantage; the upper hand is hers.

Mrs Trump clearly has the tactical advantage. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

Meanwhile, the 53-year-old has used her second stint as First Lady to make herself even more spectacularly wealthy. After the 2024 election, Amazon’s Prime Studios announced it was spending $62 million on a doco about her.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that her cut will be at least $43.4 million, on top of which her agent has been trying to find CEOs and billionaires willing to “sponsor” the film for $15 million a piece.

Let the sound of cash registers ring out.

Then there is her $MELANIA meme coin, released in January, which at its peak was worth $330 million. It’s unclear how many coins she personally owns.

Forget MAGA – this is MMRA. Make Melania Richer Again.

But there is one more element in all of this we have not considered – love.

No, don’t gag now.

The true state of the Trump union remains truly unknown and fundamentally unknowable.

Their marriage is the “darkest” – as in, the most secretive – “Trump hole”, Wolff writes in All Or Nothing.

There is one more element in all of this we have not considered – love. Picture: Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

“Not even the people closest to him [know] … what is the nature of the marriage. Nobody can tell you. It may be, on its own peculiar terms, the most successful marriage in America. Or, it may be ready to blow up at any moment.”

Over the years, Mrs Trump has repeatedly been called Mr Trump’s “secret weapon”.

Still, Stephanie Grisham, Mrs Trump’s former chief of staff, likened the First Lady in her 2021 book I’ll Take Your Questions Now to Marie Antoinette and described her as being like the “doomed French queen. Dismissive. Defeated. Detached”.

Maybe the question we should be asking is – what price happiness?

I suppose at least $43.4 million.

Daniela Elser is a writer, editor and a commentator with more than 15 years’ experience working with a number of Australia’s leading media titles

Originally published as ‘Tactical advantage’: Proof Melania now has the upper hand in her marriage to Donald Trump