Why Donald Trump is in the box seat for political resurrection
As Joe Biden’s gaffes continue, Donald Trump holds all the momentum in the race for The White House and a win which seemed almost impossible comes into view.
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He keeps coming up trumps.
Had any other political candidate been dealt Donald Trump’s hand, they would have folded long ago. Impeachments, indictments, even a criminal conviction – somehow, none of it has put so much as a dent in the former US president’s march to return to the White House.
And with President Joe Biden’s candidacy now hanging in the balance after his disastrous debate performance against his bitter rival, what seemed utterly impossible three and a half years ago now grows increasingly likely by the day.
“Donald Trump is going to win.”
That definitive prediction came last week not from one of Trump’s Republican allies, but from Democratic congressman Jared Golden, and was borne out in poll after poll.
The 78-year-old is not taking a victory lap just yet. As Biden flailed in recent days, Trump remained uncharacteristically quiet, happy to let his opponent bear the brunt of a wave of criticism from allies both in his party and in the media.
But Trump’s status as the ultimate agent of chaos is so baked in among Americans that with four months until they cast their votes, it is unclear what it would take to bring him undone.
This week had loomed as a potential turning point. On July 11, Trump was due back in the Manhattan Criminal Court to be sentenced after he was convicted of falsifying records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
A prison term, while unlikely, was an option. So too was house arrest, probation or a fine, any of which could have turned swinging voters away from the convicted felon, who is due to be anointed as the Republican nominee at the party’s convention next week.
That changed last week, however, with an historic decision by the US Supreme Court.
On the surface, the case had nothing to do with Trump’s hush money trial. His lawyers had instead appealed to America’s highest court over a separate set of charges stemming from his effort to overturn his 2020 election defeat, claiming that he had presidential immunity.
Trump appeared to be fighting an uphill battle.
A lower court had already declared that “for the purposes of this criminal case, former president Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defences of any other criminal defendant”.
But the six of the Supreme Court’s nine justices – three of whom were appointed by Trump himself – thought otherwise. In a landmark Judgement, they said US presidents were immune from criminal prosecution for official acts taken during their terms in office.
Trump’s legal team quickly told Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw the New York trial, that they believed his conviction should be overturned as a result of the decision.
They argued prosecutors relied heavily on evidence of his official acts, including witness testimony about conversations in the Oval Office and Trump’s own social media posts as the president.
Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Joshua Steinglass disagreed, saying their claim was “without merit”, but he acknowledged they should have the chance to make their case.
The upshot of all of this was that Merchan decided not to sentence Trump until September 18 – and that is if the jury’s verdict still stands.
DELAY, DELAY, DELAY
Since he was charged with 91 felonies across four criminal cases last year, Trump’s legal strategy has been to delay, delay, delay. This marks yet another victory on that front.
Even more importantly, the Supreme Court’s immunity call means it is all but certain Trump will not face a trial on charges of trying to overturn the last election before the next election.
While Trump has led Biden in the polls for months, the President’s campaign architects had been calculating that voters would ultimately turn on Trump when they were reminded of the events of January 6.
The deadly riot at the US Capitol was one of America’s darkest hours.
But Trump has since described it as a “beautiful day” and has promised to pardon those jailed for their involvement – convicted criminals he calls “hostages” and “political prisoners”.
“What he wants people to think about January 6 is just a complete and utter lie,” Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican representative who helped lead a congressional inquiry, said.
On the debate stage last month, Trump again made false statements about the events of that day. He recycled baseless suggestions of fraud during the 2020 election and he repeatedly refused to fully commit to accepting the results of the election this November.
Biden’s shaky effort, however, meant Trump’s claims were mostly overlooked in the fallout. And the Supreme Court’s verdict means his actions are unlikely to be scrutinised in a trial.
“The courts have spoken,” the former president happily declared.
“This is a big win for our Constitution and for democracy. Now I am free to campaign like anyone else. We are leading in every poll – by a lot – and we will make America great again.”
The Supreme Court had previously delivered two other decisions that aided Trump’s bid to escape any consequences for January 6. It affirmed his place on the ballot for the election, despite a constitutional ban on insurrectionists seeking office, and it up-ended the prosecution of rioters in a way that could narrow the charges against Trump.
So it was no surprise that Biden – who had until recently avoided discussing Trump’s legal peril – hit back angrily last week, saying: “The public has a right to know the answer about what happened on January 6 before they are asked to vote again this year.”
“This nation was founded on the principle that there are no kings in America,” he said.
“No one is above the law, not even the president of the United States … Today’s decision almost certainly means that there are virtually no limits on what a president can do.”
CHARGES COULD STILL BE THROWN OUT
Tanya Chutkan, the judge overseeing the federal election interference case against Trump, could still hold a pre-election procedural hearing that legal experts have suggested would double as a “mini-trial” of the allegations. Nevertheless, if Trump wins in November, he could and would ask the Department of Justice to throw out the charges against him.
He would similarly scrap a separate federal prosecution over his alleged mishandling of classified files after leaving the White House, a case that has been moving far more slowly.
The final case against Trump – in which he is accused of trying to overturn his 2020 defeat in Georgia – has also ground to a halt because of the lead prosecutor’s affair with a colleague. That messy situation is typical of the lucky breaks that have kept coming his way.
Last year, as the indictments against Trump stacked up, Biden and the Democrats assumed he was doomed. Instead, when his candidacy is confirmed at next week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee, it will be his opponents who appear to be in disarray.
To sharpen that unexpected split-screen, Trump is expected to use the event to reveal his vice presidential pick. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Ohio senator JD Vance and Florida senator Marco Rubio are considered the final three candidates to join the ticket.
Americans are ultimately unenthused about reprising the 2020 election. But both parties have been unwilling to offer them an alternative. Should it remain a rematch, if Biden stays in the race, Trump will be in the box seat to complete an unparalleled political resurrection.
Originally published as Why Donald Trump is in the box seat for political resurrection
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