Huge clue suggests possible Donald Trump election victory despite polls favouring Biden win
The polls tell us Joe Biden is almost a shoo-in – but the President’s packed and passionate rallies paint a very different picture.
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The mercury dipped to freezing during US President Donald Trump’s election rally in Omaha, Nebraska this week – but even the brutal temperature couldn’t keep diehard fans away.
Seven people were hospitalised after traffic issues left thousands stranded for hours following the event, reportedly including elderly attendees who were treated for hypothermia.
But despite the harsh conditions, tens of thousands of ardent supporters flocked to the punishing event and were grateful to do so – as they have been throughout the entire election campaign.
Donnie left his supporters at his Omaha Rally stranded & freezing???
— Emily Denverðð¥ (@EmilyDenver8) October 28, 2020
Don't worry MAGAs, the freezing cold temperatures will go away soon...it'll just disappear, like a miracle.#TrumpRallyOmaha #Omahastranded #omaharally pic.twitter.com/JCS3PIaZ4m
Thousands of people left out in the cold and stranded in #Omaha, #Nebraska after a #Trump rally. Iâm told the shuttles arenât operating & there arenât enough busses. Police didnât seem to know what to do. Some walked. I saw at least one woman getting medical attention. pic.twitter.com/oIkmixaZt0
— Jeff Paul (@Jeff_Paul) October 28, 2020
Meanwhile, over at the Biden camp, it has been a very different story.
While Mr Trump’s rallies have attracted floods of red Make America Great Aagain hats with long queues of energetic fans eager to catch a glimpse of their political hero, Mr Biden’s have tended to be far more subdued affairs.
Obama's car rally for Biden in Philadelphia. Walmart has more cars on a Wednesday afternoon. pic.twitter.com/pJCXX8veSr
— Gregory Jon (@gregoryjon) October 21, 2020
AMAZINGâ¼ï¸
— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) October 25, 2020
At JOE BIDENâs ârally,â President @realDonaldTrumpâs supporters show up to start a counter-rally.
Joe literally draws more Trump supporters than Joe supporters!!! pic.twitter.com/3IZPXOnTS0
They’ve not only been smaller in terms of crowd size, but have also failed to match the vibrancy and enthusiasm of those held by the President – and it’s a trend that has occurred long before the coronavirus pandemic took hold.
In fact, back in May 2019, left-leaning political site Politico reported that Mr Biden’s launch rally “paled next to some of his rivals” and that he failed to pull in the crowds seen by former Democrat candidates Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg in Iowa, despite his far higher profile as the nation’s ex-Vice President.
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Politico reported that in the early stages of his campaign, the 77-year-old held events in “smaller venues where there’s little danger of empty seats” and noted “the seeming lack of excitement or teeming masses at his events” which indicated a “lack of passion for his candidacy”.
In June, an Economist/YouGov Poll found more than twice as many Trump supporters were enthusiastic about their candidate than their Democratic counterparts, and just three months ago, a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research also revealed the Democratic hopeful’s supporters were less enthusiastic than Republicans when it came to both the wider campaign and Mr Biden himself.
The research found just 31 per cent of Biden supporters were “excited” compared with 42 per cent of Trump devotees, with those on Team Biden also experiencing more negative emotions such as anxiety and frustration.
And in September, another poll by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics revealed 56 per cent of Americans who were likely to support Mr Trump were “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, compared to just 35 per cent of Biden backers, while a Facebook analysis by University of Bath PhD researcher Tristan Hotham has revealed Joe Biden is “trailing the performance of Hillary Clinton in 2016” while Mr Trump was “exceeding his 2016 performance”.
The phenomenon is so significant it has even been given a nickname – the “enthusiasm gap” – and some are convinced it could mean Mr Trump has this in the bag.
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But others – including Griffith University political scientist Professor John Kane – believe widespread anti-Trump sentiment is a much more powerful factor than the lukewarm feelings many may hold for Mr Biden.
Prof Kane told news.com.au the enthusiasm gap “absolutely” existed – but was less important than many might think.
“There is enthusiasm on the Democrat/liberal side, but it’s not so much enthusiasm for Biden as anti-Trump – that’s what’s getting that massive pre-election vote, which has been unprecedented,” he said.
“Trump has cultish followers but that can be very misleading … it looks good on TV, (but) if you’re taking it as a guide to how the election is going to go, it would be wiser to look at which way the polls are trending.”
While Prof Kane said Mr Trump could end up pulling off “another miracle”, it was “hard to see lightning striking twice” on November 3.
“There’s a lot of anti-Trump sentiment and so many people are motivated to just get rid of this guy,” he said.
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Originally published as Huge clue suggests possible Donald Trump election victory despite polls favouring Biden win