How the US and Ukraine may have worked to surprise Russia with ballistic missile strike

The 1000th day of the war in Ukraine was significant, with the launch of long-range missiles into Russia signalling the start of a “new phase”. Here’s what we know about the surprise attack.

Ukraine’s surprise use of long-range ATACMS missiles against Russia just days after Washington gave the green light, has marked a “new phase of the Western war”.

The missile attack, which Ukrainian officials confirmed to RBC Ukraine was one of America’s Army Tactical Missile Systems, targeted an ammunition store in Karachev, in Russia’s Bryansk region which is about 120km from the Ukrainian border.

Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed six missiles were shot at the facility, five of which they shot down.

“This is a signal that they want escalation,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in response to the attack.

However, the sixth missile made contact in spectacular fashion with video of the strike quickly going viral.

Here is everything we know about the surprise attack.

WHAT MISSILE WAS USED?

The ATACMS is a surface-to-surface missile system launched from a mobile vehicle, with a range of 160 to 305 km, depending on the model.

For months, the Biden administration refrained from allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS against Russian targets, citing fears of escalating the conflict.

However, the White House approved its use after North Korea deployed thousands of troops to Russia’s Kursk region, where Moscow has concentrated over 50,000 soldiers in an effort to reclaim territory lost to Ukraine during a rapid offensive in August.

WHY DID THIS HAPPEN NOW?

While there are various theories about what occurred — ranging from mistaken reports to a last-minute shift in Presidnent Joe Biden’s decision — some experts suggest it may have been a case of “strategic ambiguity,” intended to catch Moscow off guard before it could take steps to minimise the impact.

Experts suggest that by launching a surprise strike in an unexpected area, Ukraine maximised the effectiveness of its attack.

Russia, caught off guard, would have been less prepared to defend against the strike or to move its military assets out of range of the ballistic missiles.

“It’s either the policy was actually the more generous and more encompassing one … and perhaps it was just misreported in all the breaking news that came out the other day,” Institute for the Study of War’s George Barros told The New York Post.

“The other sort of circumstance is that we did this — and it would be crafty and the first time that we actually sort of got smart — and we implied, signalled and telegraphed that it was going to be just in a certain area, when, in reality, it’s the more encompassing one,” Mr Barros continued.

“In this case, we surprised the Russians with this sort of strike — which is a smart thing, and the sort of thing that, you know, a superpower like the United States should be doing.”

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a stark five-word warning to Vladimir Putin. Picture: AFP

HAS UKRAINE ADDRESSED THE ATTACK?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a stark five-word warning to Vladimir Putin as he told the Russian President: “Missiles will speak for themselves”.

“There’s a lot of media speculation about us receiving permission for certain actions,” he said in his daily address.

“But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves.”

Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr slammed Mr Biden’s move.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” he wrote.

WILL RUSSIA RETALIATE?

Hours after Tuesday’s strike, Mr Putin revealed that he had altered Moscow’s “nuclear posture” in what appeared to be a direct response to the shift in US policy regarding Ukraine.

The new policy allows him to potentially deploy nuclear weapons if Russia is attacked by any country backed by a nuclear power — exactly what Russia claims Kyiv is doing with Western support.

Mr Barros said that just because a policy shifts, it does not mean that Mr Putin will employ it.

“The doctrine is simply just a Russian way of signalling — and it actually kind of smells of desperation,” he told The NY Post.

“The Russians understand that they are vulnerable and that their means to respond to this is are actually quite limited. So they’re pulling out all the remaining breaks that they have on what they can do to signal and try to get us to continue deferring ourselves, but it looks like it’s failing.”

People gather to show solidarity with Ukraine, marking 1000 days of the start of the war in Ukraine. Picture: AFP

Despite Russia’s nuclear threats, the US has been concerned it would take other steps like increasing sabotage operations in Europe or arming Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Wall Street Journal has reported on how Russia supplied the Houthis with targeting data as they attacked ships in the Red Sea.

Foundation for Defending Democracies Russia expert John Hardie agreed, but acknowledged that “we should always sort of read the Russian declaratory policy seriously.”

“The likelihood that Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to this or other missile attacks in Russia, I think, is very, very low,” he told The NY Post.

“If you look at what, to me, was the time in this war when Russian nuclear use was most likely, that was in September 2022, after Russia was humiliated with the Ukrainian counteroffensive and hardcore blasts.

“Russian lines really just melted away, and Ukraine was able to recapture a whole bunch of territory and destroy a whole bunch of Russian forces. Russia did not use nuclear weapons there.”

Mr Putin also did not use nuclear weapons when Ukraine invaded the Kursk region.

“When Ukraine conducted strikes in Crimea or other Russian-annexed occupied Ukrainian territories, Russia does not respond to those strikes with nuclear weapons, or even really, what I would call really credible threatening,” Mr Hardie said.

“So I think nuclear use is very unlikely here.”

Originally published as How the US and Ukraine may have worked to surprise Russia with ballistic missile strike