Are Israel and Iran on the verge of a full-scale war?

Iran has threatened to strike after two assassinations have taken place, killing key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. This is what we know.

Iran’s supreme leader has issued an order for a direct attack on Israel in response to the killing of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

This is what we know about the threat of another full-scale war in the Middle East.

Will the current crisis in Lebanon spark all out war between Iran and Israel?

The Middle East has been a powder keg for decades but the Hezbollah rocket that killed 12 children on a football pitch in Israel’s Golan Heights lit the fuse.

Israel has responded with the assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr, with strikes in the Lebanese capital Beirut and inside Iran.

The audacious Israeli offensive demonstrated their capabilities and raised the stakes. Any peace deal between Israel and Hamas over the Gaza Strip looks even further away now as Haniyeh was a key player in those talks.

Iran has declared three days of mourning and vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that vowed “harsh punishment” for Israel.

Top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr killed in an Israeli strike in south Beirut. Picture: AFP

A man stands near a damaged gate around a football pitch after a reported strike from Lebanon fell in Majdal Shams village in the Israeli-annexed Golan area on July 28. Picture: AFP

Mourners attend a funeral held for 10 of the victims of the rocket attack in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights. Picture: Getty

What will Iran do next?

Iran has threatened to avenge the Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh who was assassinated on their soil this week.

Direct attacks by Iran on Israeli territory risk raising the stakes even further, but they are not unprecedented. Iran sent at least 10 cruise missiles and 200 drones in an attack on Israel in April, following the deaths of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards who were killed by Israeli strikes in Syria on April 1.

Israel’s Iron Dome defence system shot down the missiles but seven year old Amina al-Hassouni was killed by an Iranian bomb that had hit her home in southern Israel.

It’s likely that Iran would send another wave of bombs, but carefully targeted to avoid risking all-out war.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN in April that Iran would not tolerate further attacks.

“In case the Israeli regime embarks on adventurism again and takes action against the interests of Iran, the next response from us will be immediate and at a maximum level,” Mr Amir-Abdollahian said in an interview in New York.

Right now, Iran does not have a nuclear bomb, which reduces some of the tension. There were fears that if Iran did have the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb that they could easily start World War Three.

Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh on April 20 before he was killed. Picture: Getty

When did Lebanon attack Israel?

The tensions between Lebanon and Israel started at the beginning of the Israeli state in 1948. Lebanese forces, in an alliance with other Arab nations, fought the setting up of the Jewish state, which occurred at the end of the British rule of Palestine.

The war raged for a year, before a peace deal in 1949. As many as 100,000 Palestinians fled to Lebanon around that time. Decades of tensions have followed as the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) moved its base to Lebanon.

Residents clear the rubble in a football field facing the building that was hit a day earlier in an Israeli strike in Beirut's southern suburbs, on July 31. Picture: AFP

Should Australians travel to Lebanon?

Anthony Albanese said there are “thousands” of Australian citizens still in Lebanon nd they should come home to Australia.

“We have a very clear statement that has been issued through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and for those Australians that are overseas, they should take the opportunity to come home to Australia,” the Prime Minister said.

“There is a risk that the Beirut airport might not be open for commercial flights and given the numbers of people that are there, there is no guarantee that people will be able to come home through other means if that airport is shut.

“We say to people, listen to the warnings which are there and please, over recent months we have seen people continue to go and travel to the region and we have made very clear our warnings about that.”

There are as many as 30,000 Australians currently in Lebanon.

“Australians in Lebanon should leave immediately while commercial flights remain available,” the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s Smart Traveller website warns.

“The security situation could deteriorate rapidly throughout Lebanon with little or no notice.”

Australians have also been told that Beirut Airport could close suddenly.

“Some airlines have postponed or cancelled some flights. Further flight cancellations and disruptions could occur with little or no notice,” DFAT said.

The issue creates a dilemma for many Australians who have relatives in Lebanon.

There are at least 250,000 Australians with Lebanese ancestry, according to the 2021 Census, but that number was expected to be significantly higher.

Passengers departure from Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut on July 29. Airlines suspended flights to Lebanon on July 29, as diplomatic efforts were underway to contain soaring tensions between Hezbollah and Israel after deadly rocket fire in the annexed Golan Heights. Picture: AFP

Should Australians travel to Iran?

Iran used to be a stop over on the way to Europe for Australians in the 1970s but it is definitely a no-go zone now.

University of Melbourne academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert was jailed in Iran for 804 days on trumped up spying charges before she was released in November 2020.

DFAT continues to list Iran as a “do not travel” country.

“Terrorist attacks could happen anywhere in Iran, including Tehran or other locations frequented by foreigners and tourists,” the Smart Traveller website said. ‘Regional tensions are high, and the security environment could deteriorate with little or no notice.”

Why did Israel become involved in the civil war in Lebanon?

The Lebanese Civil War started in 1975 as conflict between the Maronite Christian groups, Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims reached breaking point.

The Christian groups had been in positions of power following French rule of Lebanon, but the migration of Palestinian Muslims into Lebanon following the creation of the Israel state changed the country’s demographics.

Israel supported the South Lebanese Army in 1978 when it was fighting for the rights of minority Christian groups.

The conflict widened in 1982 when Israeli forces, following a series of attacks on its border, invaded southern Lebanon, with forces reaching Beirut.

The war began in June 1982, but the United States brokered a peace deal in August that year. A peace treaty agreed in 1983 failed when the Lebanese Army collapsed, leading to a wider civil war as former soldiers splintered into militias. A peace deal disarmed Lebanese militias in 1990, except for Hezbollah.

Women mourn during the funeral of two children, Hassan and Amira Muhammed Fadallah, a day after they were killed in an Israeli strike on a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, on July 31. Picture: AFP

Is Golan Heights Israel or Palestine?

Israel has controlled the Golan Heights since the Six-Day War in 1967. They captured the territory in what was previously the south west corner of Syria, along with Old Jerusalem city and the Gaza Strip. Golan Heights is bordered by the Sea of Galilee and was considered a strategic point. Israel annexed the area in 1981.

Where is Hezbollah located in Lebanon?

Hezbollah, which is supplied with weapons, logistics and money by Iran, controls major parts of Lebanon’s southern border with Israel.

It has used that base to carry out terror attacks for decades, as well as rocket blasts into Israeli territory.

The group has a power base among Sunni Muslims in parts of Beirut. It has set up a political party in Lebanon and provides cash handouts to locals to garner support. It’s backer, Iran, are Shia Muslims, but they have put aside that difference because of their attempts to destabilise Israel.

Israeli soldiers sit on a tank near the border with the Gaza Strip. Picture: Getty

What was Israel before 1948?

The land where Israel was created was formerly part of the Ottoman Empire, which collapsed after its defeat in World War One.

Britain ruled the area until 1947 when the United Nations declared it would become a Jewish state. However, the boundaries were not clearly defined and have been disputed for decades, leading to bloodshed and ongoing tensions.

Israel had a population surge following the fall of the Soviet Union, with Russian Jews adding at least 1 million people to its population of 10 million.

Originally published as Are Israel and Iran on the verge of a full-scale war?