Labor tipped to edge election win but in danger of minority government, polling shows

Pollsters say Labor’s vote is showing signs of decline, but the Premier insists he won’t be making deals with the Greens or independents to form a minority government.

Daniel Andrews has insisted he will make no deals with the Greens or any independent MP if he fails to secure enough seats to form majority government in 12 days.

“No deal will be offered and no deal will be done,” he told ABC Breakfast on Monday morning.

“We work hard to put a positive and optimistic plan out there and we’ll see what the verdict of Victorian voters is.

“I’m arguing, I’m urging people to vote for a strong, stable majority Labor government and to vote for your local Labor candidate so we can continue building and investing.

“This is very, very important. We are doing what matters.”

Speaking on morning television programs to mark the start of pre-poll, the Premier donned a new jacket spruiking his plan to revive the SEC.

Mr Andrew’s said is “absolutely committed” to serving a full four-year term if elected in 12 days.

“Yes I’m here to work hard every single day for the people of our great state,” he told the Today show.

Mr Andrews was forced to defend questions as to whether he deserved a third term in power given lingering IBAC probes, a world record lockdown, a failing health system and record debt.

Asked if it was a good look to be heading into an election while subject to corruption probes, Mr Andrews responded: “How things look is a matter for others”.

“What I’m concerned to do is have more nurses, more ambos, more patients being treated faster, to have more schools,” he added.

It comes after the Herald Sun revealed that support for Labor and the Coalition was on a knife edge two weeks out from election day, and Victoria was facing the prospect of a hung parliament.

New polling shows the Matthew Guy-led Coalition is clawing back support with its attacks on eight years of Labor government.

Daniel Andrews’ Labor is tipped to win the election but is in danger of having to form a minority government, polling shows. Picture: Brendan Beckett

According to the statewide poll, once the undecided vote is redistributed it is estimated Labor and the Coalition’s primary vote totals would be tied at 38 per cent. But Premier Daniel ­Andrews would win a third term with Labor ahead of the ­Coalition 53.5 to 46.5 on a two-party preferred basis.

Opposition leader Matthew Guy says he believes the election is “absolutely winnable”.

“Now every poll says our primary vote is either the same or better than governments,” he told 3AW.

“I’ve kind of been written by everyone and yet here we are in a position where it’s absolutely winnable.

“I’ve been saying that all along, and it is.”

“It’s not about deals. You tell people exactly what we are going to do if we get to government,” he said.

“If people want to invest in that, we’ll accept their vote on a confidence and supply matter but I’m not going to do backroom deals.”

Pollsters say despite the lead, the Labor vote is patchy and showing signs of decline, meaning it will not necessarily deliver the ALP a majority of 45 of the 88 seats. A hung parliament would be triggered if Labor loses 11 of its currently held 55 seats.

Polling opens today with more than half of voters expected to cast their ballots before the November 26 election.

New polling shows the Matthew Guy-led Coalition is clawing back support with its attacks on eight years of Labor government. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

The poll of 1189 people by independent research firm RedBridge showed an almost 10 per cent drop in Labor’s primary vote since the 2018 election to 33.9 per cent.

Support for the Coalition has climbed to 33.4 per cent thanks to a surge in the ­Nationals vote, but the Liberal Party’s primary vote also ­remains lower than in 2018.

Pollsters say the primary vote numbers, which do not ­account for undecided voters, will worry both major parties and could produce the lowest major party primary vote in Victorian history.

The undecideds are again expected to play a key role with 10.4 per cent in that category.

Of those, Labor may secure about 26 per cent, and the ­Coalition an estimated 20 per cent. It means preferences from minor parties and independents will be pivotal.

The Greens, who are tipped to steal up to three seats from Labor, remain Victoria’s third-most popular party, with 12.3 per cent of the primary vote.

Another one in 10 voters said they would back an alternative party or independent.

RedBridge director Kos ­Samaras, director of RedBridge, said the election was showing similar trends to May’s federal election.

“At that election, both Labor and the Coalition ­secured a primary vote at around 33 per cent,” he said.

“This poll also suggests that the surge in support for the Greens in May seems to be still alive and if replicated on election day will cost Labor at least one lower house seat.

“The majority of the unsure vote plans to support a minor party. That means we will more than likely see both major parties with a primary vote equal to one another, triggering an extremely patchy result across Melbourne and Victoria.”

Mr Samaras said RedBridge research consistently showed Victorians desperate for a broad vision from their leaders.

“They want to see a plan that helps them deal with the cost-of-living crisis, which is now overwhelming many Victorian households,” he said.

The Greens, lead by Samantha Ratnam, are tipped to steal up to three seats from Labor, remain Victoria’s third-most popular party. Picture: David Crosling

“These results suggest that both major parties failed to ­deliver a plan to Victorians. Instead, both leaders have run a campaign on announcements and freebies, many of which go unnoticed by the public.”

RedBridge senior consultant Tony Barry said focus groups indicated low levels of public engagement due to a lack of confidence and trust in institutions and major parties.

Mr Barry said the Liberal Party’s decision to preference the Greens only served to further undermine confidence.

“It’s a very overused term these days, but each of the major parties currently lacks a narrative,” he said.

“Despite isolated but strong support for some policy offerings from both majors, there’s no story from either side and all voters are seeing is a bunch of unconnected and somewhat random announcements.”

Originally published as Labor tipped to edge election win but in danger of minority government, polling shows