Labor set to only narrowly hold on to Werribee seat, amid a rise in popularity of minor parties and independents

Labor is set to cling on to the seat of Werribee after Saturday’s by-election but a peak council body says its poor result amid the rise of independents and minor parties shows fed-up Victorians are turning their backs on the government.

Labor is expected to narrowly hang onto the seat of Werribee despite a massive drop in support for the party in the heartland electorate.

ALP candidate John Lister edged away from the Liberals’ Steve Murphy in the close race, as the Victorian Electoral Commission resumed the counting of postal votes.

It means Labor will likely retain the seat it has held since 1979 despite a collapse of support in the west that translated to an estimated 16.6 per cent drop in its primary vote share.

While voters flocked from Labor, the Liberal Party increased its primary vote share by just 3.8 per cent, with support increasing for minor parties and independents.

In the fallout of the by-election — sparked by the retirement of former Treasurer Tim Pallas — Jacinta Allan conceded the government needed to do more to address cost of living pressures, surging crime and a lack of infrastructure in the west.

Premier Jacinta Allen and John Lister. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Outer Melbourne Councils — a peak body representing 1.6 million residents across 10 municipalities — said the result highlighted a growing frustration with infrastructure and service delivery across Melbourne’s broader outer suburban region.

“The result in Werribee needs to be a wake up call for all MPs and candidates in electorates across Melbourne’s outer suburbs,” an OMC spokesperson said.

“People living across outer Melbourne — east, west, north or south — should have access to jobs, services and infrastructure no matter where they live.

“But investment isn’t keeping up with community need.”

OMC said voters had turned their back on the government because of frustrations over with transport congestion, housing, overwhelmed services and community safety.

Several federal Labor MPs and party insiders fear their second spot on the Victorian Senate ticket could be in jeopardy after the state party’s primary vote plummeted at the Werribee by-election.

John Lister speaks to supporters. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Vanquished Liberal candidate Steve Murphy at the voting station. Picture: Tony Gough

The state government’s decision to double down on the controversial Suburban Rail Loop project in recent weeks has frustrated MPs, who say it reinforces that Labor has the wrong priorities.

One MP said if the state government didn’t have a hard look at itself the federal team could kiss the second Senate spot goodbye.

“We can’t have Victoria down to one senator,” the MP warned.

One Labor insider said if the federal primary vote fell to the mid 20s it would create a “serious problem”, as one quota is about 14 per cent.

Senator Raff Ciccone heads Victorian Labor’s senate ticket, followed by Senator Jess Walsh in second, and Higgins MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah – whose seat was abolished in the Victorian redistribution – in third.

Former Labor strategist and Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said Labor was unlikely to lose the second spot.

“Preferences will get them over the line,” Mr Samaras said.

Another MP said the fall in the primary vote at the Werribee by-election was “catastrophic” and the focus needed to turn to infrastructure delivery, such as roads, which were being held up by the state.

Originally published as Labor set to only narrowly hold on to Werribee seat, amid a rise in popularity of minor parties and independents